A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2 °C, followed by stabilisation to 4 °C.     

The making of Stars 'R' Us!

The team behind a successful project to broaden the understanding of astrochemistry – Serena Viti, Wendy Brown, Martin McCoustra, Helen Fraser, Nigel Mason and Robert Massey – recount how they went about it and what benefits resulted.     

Quantifying the rate and depth dependence of bioturbation based on optically‐stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates and meteoric 10Be

Both the rate and the vertical distribution of soil disturbance modify soil properties such as porosity, particle size, chemical composition and age structure; all of which play an important role in a soil's biogeochemical functioning. Whereas rates of mixing have been previously quantified, the nature of bioturbation's depth dependence remains poorly constrained. Here we constrain, for the first time, the relationship between mixing rate and depth in a bioturbated soil in northeast Queensland, Australia using a novel method combining OSL (optically‐stimulated luminescence) ages and meteoric beryllium‐10 (¹⁰Be) inventories. We find that the best fit mixing rate decreases non‐linearly with increasing soil depth in this soil and the characteristic length scale of 0.28 m over which the mixing coefficient decays is comparable to reported rooting depth coefficients. In addition we show that estimates of surface mixing rates from OSL data are highly dependent on erosion rate and that erosion rate must be constrained if accurate mixing rates are to be quantified. We calculate surface diffusion‐like mixing coefficients of 1.8 × 10^?4 and 2.1 × 10^?4 m² yr^?1 for the studied soil for two different estimates of soil erosion. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Effectiveness of simple approaches in mitigating residual deformations in buildings

Developments in performance‐based seismic design and assessment approaches have emphasized the importance of considering residual deformations. Recent investigations have also led to a proposed direct displacement‐based design (DDBD) approach which includes an explicit consideration of the expected residual deformations as an integral part of the design process. Having estimated the expected residual deformations in a structure, engineers are faced with the problem of reducing them to meet the targeted performance levels under pre‐defined seismic hazard levels. Previous studies have identified the post‐yield stiffness as a primary factor influencing the magnitude of residual deformations in single degree of freedom and multiple degree of freedom structures. In this paper, a series of simple approaches to increase the post‐yield stiffness of traditional framed and braced systems for the purpose of reducing residual deformations are investigated. These methods do not utilize recentring post‐tensioned technology. This contribution addresses the feasibility of altering the lateral post‐yield stiffness of structural systems by: (i) using different reinforcement materials with beneficial features in their stress–strain behaviour; (ii) re‐designing the section geometry and properties of primary seismic‐resisting elements; and (iii) introducing a secondary elastic frame to act in parallel with the primary system. The efficiency of each of these techniques is investigated through monotonic and cyclic moment‐curvature and non‐linear time‐history analyses. Of these approaches the design and introduction of an elastic secondary system was found to be most effective and consistent in reducing residual deformations. A simplified design approach for achieving the desired increase of a system's post‐yield stiffness is also presented. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Plasmaspheric hiss overview and relation to chorus

A brief overview is given of the history of plasmaspheric hiss research, particularly in the context of the recent work by Bortnik et al. (2008) indicating that chorus could be the likely source of plasmaspheric hiss. Previous suggestions given in the literature for this theory are reviewed and then the mechanism itself is outlined, focusing on the characteristic cyclical trajectories executed by typical ray paths that enter into the plasmasphere. A number of directional propagation studies performed in the past are then discussed as well as other work which bears relevance to the present mechanism.     

Evaluating Quaternary dating methods: Radiocarbon,U-series,luminescence, and amino acid racemization dates of a late Pleistocene emu egg

A whole emu egg, with infilling sediment believed to be coeval with egg laying and burial, was found in late Pleistocene lunette sediments near Lake Eyre, central Australia. The stratigraphic context and initial amino acid racemization (AAR) results suggested an age between 25 ka and 35 ka, ideal for a multiple cross-dating comparison. The sediment infilling the egg provided material for luminescence dating that minimized problems of association. Age estimations from AAR, ¹⁴C and U series methods were obtained from the eggshell and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) of the infilling sediment. All methods agreed within their respective dating uncertainties confirming the utility of all four methods. They indicate an age for the emu egg of 31.24 ± 0.34 ka.     

Pilot‐scale field validation of the long electrode electrical resistivity tomography method

A validation experiment, carried out in a scaled field setting, was attempted for the long electrode electrical resistivity tomography method in order to demonstrate the performance of the technique in imaging a simple buried target. The experiment was an approximately 1/17 scale mock‐up of a region encompassing a buried nuclear waste tank on the Hanford site. The target of focus was constructed by manually forming a simulated plume within the vadose zone using a tank waste simulant. The long electrode results were compared to results from conventional point electrodes on the surface and buried within the survey domain. Using a pole‐pole array, both point and long electrode imaging techniques identified the lateral extents of the pre‐formed plume with reasonable fidelity but the long electrode method was handicapped in reconstructing vertical boundaries. The pole‐dipole and dipole‐dipole arrays were also tested with the long electrode method and were shown to have the least favourable target properties, including the position of the reconstructed plume relative to the known plume and the intensity of false positive targets. The poor performance of the pole‐dipole and dipole‐dipole arrays was attributed to an inexhaustive and non‐optimal coverage of data at key electrodes, as well as an increased noise for electrode combinations with high geometric factors. However, when comparing the model resolution matrix among the different acquisition strategies, the pole‐dipole and dipole‐dipole arrays using long electrodes were shown to have significantly higher average and maximum values within the matrix than any pole‐pole array. The model resolution describes how well the inversion model resolves the subsurface. Given the model resolution performance of the pole‐dipole and dipole‐dipole arrays, it may be worth investing in tools to understand the optimum subset of randomly distributed electrode pairs to produce maximum performance from the inversion model.     

Dynamics of a fringe mangrove forest detected by Landsat images in the Mekong River Delta,Vietnam

Mangrove forests dominate many tropical coastlines and are one of the most bio‐diverse and productive environments on Earth. However, little is known of the large‐scale dynamics of mangrove canopies and how they colonize intertidal areas. Here we focus on a fringe mangrove forest located in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam; a fast prograding shoreline where mangroves are encroaching tidal flats. The spatial and temporal evolution of the mangrove canopy is studied using a time series of Landsat images spanning two decades as well as Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) elevation data. Our results show that fast mangrove expansion is followed by an increase in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the newly established canopy. We observe three different dynamics of the mangrove fringe: in the southwest part of the fringe, near a deltaic distributary where the fringe boundary is linear, the canopy expands uniformly on the tidal flats with a high colonization rate and high NDVI values. In the northeast part of the fringe, near another distributary, the canopy expands at a much lower rate with low NDVI values. In the fringe center, far from the river mouths, the fringe boundary is highly irregular and mangroves expansion in characterized by sparse vegetated patches displaying low NDVI values. We ascribe these different dynamics to wave action and southwest longshore transport triggered by energetic northeasterly monsoons during winter. We further link the large‐scale dynamics of the fringe to small‐scale physical disturbances (waves, erosion and deposition) that might prevent the establishment of mangrove seedlings. Based on these results, we include mangrove encroachment in an already published conceptual model of progradation of the Mekong River Delta. We conclude that high NDVI values and a constantly linear vegetation–water interface are indicative of stable mangrove canopies undergoing fast expansion, probably triggered by sediment availability at the shore. Our results can be applied more generally to mangrove forests growing in minerogenic and high tidal range environments with high sediment inputs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.