The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.     

Nomenclature and resolution in Holocene glacial chronologies

Most Quaternary research in Canada during the first half of the twentieth century focused on Pleistocene glaciation. Given the dramatic shifts in climate during the Pleistocene, it is not surprising that the Holocene was viewed as a time of benign climate. Holocene climate variability was first recognized around the middle of the century when paleoecologists found evidence that the early part of the epoch was warmer and drier than the later part. In 1970s and 1980s, another generation of geologists, geographers, and botanists began to recognize more complexity in Holocene climate and vegetation in western Canada. Several millennial-scale glacier “advances” postdating the early Holocene warm interval were defined, including the Garibaldi Phase (6.9–5.6 ka), the Tiedemann–Peyto Advance (3.5–1.9 ka), and the Little Ice Age (AD 1200–1900). Subsequently, application of dendrochronological techniques and stratigraphic studies in glacier forefields showed that the Little Ice Age was itself more complex than previously thought. During that 700-year period, glaciers repeatedly advanced and retreated in response to climatic variability on time scales ranging from centuries to decades. Recent work shows that the glacier record of the Garibaldi Phase and the Tiedemann and Peyto advances are similar in complexity to the Little Ice Age, with multiple advances of glaciers separated by intervals of more restricted ice cover. Researchers have also identified other times in the Holocene when glaciers expanded from restricted positions – 8.20, 4.90–3.80, and 1.70–1.40 ka. Continued research undoubtedly will reveal additional complexities, but with what is currently known the appropriateness of terms such as “Tiedemann Advance,” “Peyto Advance,” and “Little Ice Age” can be questioned. Only short periods of time separate these episodes as currently defined, and it seems likely that intervals of restricted glacier cover within each of these millennial-length intervals are just as long as the intervals separating them.     

Book reviews

GRIFFITH TAYLOR: Antarctic scientist and pioneer geographer (Carleton Library Series No. 145) by M. Sanderson. 15 x 23 cm, xi and 218 pages. Carleton University Press: Ottawa 1988 (ISBN 0 88629 068 6) $C24.95 (hard); (ISBN 0 88629 068 X) $C14.95 (soft) plus postage.

LAND, WATER AND PEOPLE: Geographical essays in Australian resource management edited by R. L. Heathcote and J. A. Mabbutt. 14 x 21 cm, xiii and 266 pages. Allen & Unwin: Sydney 1988 (ISBN 0 04 303008 4) $A24.95 (soft).

ENVIRONMENTAL GEOGRAPHY: Book One by J. Paine, H. McLean and G. Mayhew. 19 x 25 cm, 389 pages. Macmillan: Melbourne 1988 (ISBN 0 333 43073 5) $A28.95 (soft).

Climate Impact Assessment Program (1975) Impacts of climate change on the biosphere, Monograph No. 5, US Department of Transportation, Washington DC.

SMALL‐SCALE AGRICULTURE edited by J. Hirst, J. Overton, B. Allen and Y. Byron. 18 x 25 cm, xii and 210 pages. Commonwealth Geographical Bureau and Department of Human Geography, Australian National University: Canberra 1988 (ISBN 0 7316 3609 0) $A 10.00 (soft).

THE BRITTLE RIM: Finance, Business and the Pacific Region by M. T. Daly and M. I. Logan. 15 × 23 cm, 263 pages, Penguin Books: Ring‐wood 1989 (ISBN 0 14 012095 5) $A24.99 (soft)

THE END OF ORGANISED CAPITALISM by S. Lash and J. Urry. 15 x 23cm, 383 pages. Polity Press: Cambridge 1987 (ISBN 07456 00697) $A34.95 (soft).

THE POLITICS OF DEVELOPMENT: An Introduction to Global Issues by J. L. Seitz. 15 x 23 cm, xiii and 194 pages. Basil Blackwell: New York 1988 (ISBN 0 631 15801 4) $A27.95 (soft).

DEVELOPING WITH FOREIGN INVESTMENT edited by V. Cable and B. Persaud. 16 x 24 cm, viii and 327 pages. Croom Helm: London 1987 (ISBN 0 7099 4825 5) $A87.95 (hard).

PLANNING SYDNEY'S FUTURE by P. Spearritt and C. DeMarco, 21 x 27 cm, and 150 pages. Allen & Unwin: Sydney 1988 (ISBN 0 04 324014 3) $A17.95 (soft).

THE RICHEST LODE: Broken Hill 1888–1988 by R. J. Solomon. 22 x 28 cm, 424 pages. Hale & Iremonger: Sydney 1988 (ISBN 0 86806 333 9).

CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN DEVELOPMENT (North Australia: Progress and Prospects, Volume 1) edited by D. Wade‐Marshall and P. Loveday. xiii and 310 pages. North Australia Research Unit, Australian National University: Darwin 1988 (ISBN 07315 0335 X).

NEW CALEDONIA OR KANAKY? The Political History of a French Colony (Pacific Research Monograph No. 16) by J. Connell. National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University: Canberra 1987 (ISBN 0 7315 05123).

DISEASE ECOLOGY by Andrew Learmonth. 15 x 23 cm, 456 pages. Basil Blackwell: Oxford 1988 (ISBN 0 631 15799 9) $A46.00 (soft).

QUALITATIVE METHODS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY edited by J. Eyles and D. M. Smith. 15 x 23 cm, xiii and 272 pages. Polity Press: Cambridge 1988 (ISBN 0 7456 0371 8) $A34.95 (soft).

GEOGRAPHICAL SYSTEMS AND SYSTEMS OF GEOGRAPHY: Essays in Honour of William Warntz edited by W. J. Coffey. 14 x 21 cm, 211 pages. Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario: London, Ontario 1988 (ISBN 0 7714 09747) $C30.00 (soft).     

Little Ice Age fluctuations of Glaciar Río Manso in the north Patagonian Andes of Argentina

Little Ice Age (LIA) fluctuations of Glaciar Río Manso, north Patagonian Andes, Argentina are studied using information from previous work and dendrogeomorphological analyses of living and subfossil wood. The most extensive LIA expansion occurred between the late 1700s and the 1830-1840s. Except for a massive older frontal moraine system apparently predating ca. 2240 ¹⁴C yr BP and a small section of a south lateral moraine ridge that is at least 300 yr old, the early nineteenth century advance overrode surficial evidence of any earlier LIA glacier events. Over the past 150 yr the gently sloping, heavily debris-covered lower glacier tongue has thinned significantly, but several short periods of readvance or stasis have been identified and tree-ring dated to the mid-1870s, 1890s, 1900s, 1920s, 1950s, and the mid-1970s. Ice mass loss has increased in recent years due to calving into a rapidly growing proglacial lake. The neighboring debris-free and land-based Glaciar Frías has also retreated markedly in recent years but shows substantial differences in the timing of the peak LIA advance (early 1600s). This indicates that site-specific factors can have a significant impact on the resulting glacier records and should thus be considered carefully in the development and assessment of regional glacier chronologies.     

Do S-type granites commonly sample infracrustal sources? New results from an integrated O, U–Pb and Hf isotope study of zircon

In contrast to I-type granites, which commonly comprise infracrustal and supracrustal sources, S-type granites typically incorporate predominantly supracrustal sources. The initial aim of this study was to identify the sources of three Scottish Caledonian (~460 Ma) S-type granites (Kemnay, Cove and Nigg Bay) by conducting oxygen, U–Pb and Hf isotope analyses in zircon in order to characterise one potential end-member magma involved in the genesis of the voluminous late Caledonian (~430–400 Ma) I-type granites. Field, whole-rock geochemical and isotopic data are consistent with the generation of the S-type granites by melting their Dalradian Supergroup country rocks. While Hf isotope compositions of magmatic zircon, U–Pb data of inherited zircons, and high mean zircon δ¹⁸O values of 9.0 ± 2.7‰ (2SD) and 9.8 ± 2.0‰ for the Kemnay and Cove granites support this model, the Nigg Bay Granite contains zircons with much lower δ¹⁸O values (6.8 ± 2.1‰), similar to those found in Scottish I-type granites. This suggests that the Nigg Bay Granite contains low-δ¹⁸O material representing either altered supracrustal material, or more likely, an infracrustal source component with mantle-like δ¹⁸O. Mixing trends in plots of δ¹⁸O vs. εHf for S-type granite zircons indicate involvement of at least two sources in all three granites. This pilot study of Scottish Caledonian S-type granites demonstrates that, while field and whole-rock geochemical data are consistent with local melting of only supracrustal sources, the oxygen isotopic record stored in zircon reveals a much more complex petrogenetic evolution involving two or more magma sources.     

Impact of a pre-existing transverse drainage system on active rift stratigraphy: An example from the Corinth Rift,Greece

Models to explain alluvial system development in rift settings commonly depict fans that are sourced directly from catchments formed in newly uplifted footwalls, which leads to the development of steep-sided talus-cone fans in the actively subsiding basin depocentre. The impact of basin evolution on antecedent drainage networks orientated close to perpendicular to a rift axis, and flowing over the developing hangingwall dip slope, remains relatively poorly understood. The aim of this study is to better understand the responses to rift margin uplift and subsequent intrabasinal fault development in determining sedimentation patterns in alluvial deposits of a major antecedent drainage system. Field-acquired data from a coarse-grained alluvial syn-rift succession in the western Gulf of Corinth, Greece (sedimentological logging and mapping) has allowed analysis of the spatial distribution of facies associations, stratigraphic architectural elements and patterns of palaeoflow. During the earliest rifting phase, newly uplifted footwalls redirected a previously established fluvial system with predominantly southward drainage. Footwall uplift on the southern basin margin at an initially relatively slow rate led to the development of an overfilled basin, within which an alluvial fan prograded to the south-west, south and south-east over a hangingwall dip slope. Deposition of the alluvial system sourced from the north coincided with the establishment of small-scale alluvial fans sourced from the newly uplifted footwall in the south. Deposits of non-cohesive debris flows close to the proposed hangingwall fan apex pass gradationally downstream into predominantly bedload conglomerate deposits indicative of sedimentation via hyperconcentrated flows laden with sand- and silt-grade sediment. Subsequent normal faulting in the hangingwall resulted in the establishment of further barriers to stream drainage, blocking flow routes to the south. This culminated in the termination of sediment supply to the basin depocentre from the north, and the onset of underfilled basin conditions as signified by an associated lacustrine transgression. The evolution of the fluvial system described in this study records transitions between three possible end-member types of interaction between active rifting and antecedent drainage systems: (a) erosion through an uplifted footwall, (b) drainage diversion away from an uplifted footwall and (c) deposition over the hangingwall dip slope. The orientation of antecedent drainage pathways at a high angle to the trend of a developing rift axis, replete with intrabasinal faulting, exerts a primary control on the timing and location of development of overfilled and underfilled basin states in evolving depocentres.     

Parametrization of peatland hydraulic properties for the Canadian land surface scheme

Abstract

A hydraulic parametrization is developed for peatland environments in the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS). Three ‐wetland soil classes account for the typical variation in the hydraulic characteristics of the uppermost 0.5 m of organic soils. Review of the literature reveals that saturated hydraulic conductivity varies from a median of 1.0 × 10^?7m/s in deeply humified sapric peat to 2.8 × 10^?4 m/s in relatively undecomposed fibric peat. Average pore volume fraction ranges from 0.83 to 0.93. Parameters have been designed for the soil moisture characteristic curves for fibric, hemic and sapric peat using the Campbell (1974) equation employed in CLASS, and the van Genuchten (1980) formulation. There is little difference in modelled soil moisture between the two formulations within the range of conditions normally found in peatlands. Validation of modelled water table depth and peat temperature is performed for a fen in northern Québec and a bog in north‐central Minnesota. The new parametrization results in a more realistic simulation of these variables in peatlands than the previous version of CLASS, in which unrealistic mineral soil “equivalents “ were used for wetland soil climate modelling.     

Mountain environments: An assessment

The celebrated 1972 Stockholm environmental conference focused attention on the condition of the world's environment. A twenty year retrospective summary is provided by the introduction and specialty papers on all facets of mountain society and habitat relationships. Theories, models and paradigms that guided mountain research are critically examined. Specific attention is given to the application of the ecology paradigm. Contemporary discoveries and developments about resource management in mountains are elucidated. Assessments of the mountain environment, including wildlife habitat, tourism and recreation, forests, hazards, deforestation, food plant biodiversity, risk and hazard, are provided by the specialty articles. These papers were prepared for the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro.     

The significance of Cenozoic magmatism from the western margin of the eastern syntaxis, southeast Tibet

The major and trace-element geochemistry, Sr–Nd bulk-rock isotopes, U–Pb zircon chronology and Lu–Hf isotopic compositions are described for three granitic bodies which intrude the Nyingchi gneisses (Lhasa terrane) along the western margin of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. The Bayi two-mica granite and Lunan granite–granodiorite were intruded at 22 ± 1 and 25.4 ± 0.3 Ma, respectively, whereas the Confluence biotite granite was emplaced at 49.1 ± 0.4 Ma. All share strong depletions in Y and HREE requiring a garnet-bearing source both during and following the Eocene collision of the Indian plate with the Lhasa terrane. The isotope geochemistry of these intrusives (ε _Nd(t) = −3 to −5, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(t) = 0.706–0.707) indicates a crustal source within the Lhasa terrane. Sr–Nd systematics of the garnet-bearing Nyingchi gneisses together with the U–Pb and Lu–Hf isotopic ratios of detrital zircons recovered from this unit identifies it as a potential melt source. The combined element and isotope geochemistry of the plutons indicate a mixed source; the gneisses provide the older component whereas the Gangdese batholith provides a younger, siliceous component. The involvement of garnet-bearing crustal material in melt sources from the Cretaceous (80 Ma) to the Miocene (20 Ma) is consistent with the presence of a thicker continental crust in the eastern Lhasa terrane, as is the presence of magmatic epidote in several plutons which indicates a regional deepening level of exposure eastwards. Post-collision crustal melting is synchronous with proposed slab break-off during the early Miocene, suggesting advective heating by rising asthenospheric melts.