Modeling Nonprofit Resilience in Long-Term Recovery in Christchurch,New Zealand

Following the 2010–2011 earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, many nonprofit organizations changed or expanded services to address emergent or compounded risks. This research is based on interviews with thirty local community nonprofit managers and discussions with five staff focus groups conducted in 2014. Preexisting nonprofits with flexible organizational structures and emergent nonprofits succeeded in providing services during the emergency response and early recovery phases; nonprofits contracted with the government were better suited for long-term recovery. Shared resources among nonprofit agency connections contributed to successful transitions from response to recovery. Similar organizational resilience factors might occur in other major cities following disasters.     

Effects of Recent Instability on Cultivated Area Along the Euphrates River in Iraq

We used MODIS NDVI data to determine whether there was a significant change in cultivated area along the Euphrates River in Iraq after the Iraq War compared to before and during the war. Results revealed that mean cultivated area was largest during the pre–Iraq War period (2000–2003) with 99,115 Mha, reduced some during the early Iraq War period (2003–2006) to 83,480 Mha, reduced even further during the late Iraq War period (2007–2011) to 53,813 Mha due to drought, and increased slightly during the post–Iraq War period (2012–2015) to 69,161 Mha, although not returning to previous highs of the pre–Iraq War or early Iraq War periods. Statistical analysis with the Kruskal–Wallis test revealed that the small cultivated area during the post–Iraq War period was more closely related to the late Iraq War and drought period than previous periods, indicating that recent instability, such as political turmoil following the departure of U.S. troops, violent militant extremism, lack of economic investment, and environmental degradation, has had a similar effect on cultivated area as a devastating drought.     

Mud volcanoes and gas vents in the Okhotsk Sea area

Gas emissions from mud volcanoes on Sakhalin Island and water-column gas flares arising from cold seeps in the Okhotsk Sea appear to be related. They are likely activated by tectonic movements along the transform plate boundary separating the Okhotsk Sea Plate from the Eurasian and Amur plates. Gas vents (flares) and methane anomalies occur in the waters offshore Sakhalin Island, along with NE-SW-trending mounds and fluid escape structures on the seafloor. The intersection of the NE-striking transverse faults on land with the Central Sakhalin and Hokkaido-Sakhalin shear zones apparently determines the sites of mud volcanoes, a pattern that continues offshore where the intersection with the East Sakhalin and West Derugin shear zones determines the sites of the submarine gas vents.     

A simple derivation of capture probabilities for the J+1:J and J+2:J orbit-orbit resonance problems

We present a simplified analytic derivation of the capture probabilities for the j+1j and j+2j orbital resonances. We apply Henrard's method which is based on an extension of the theory of adiabatic invariants and recover the results originally obtained by Yoder.Contribution number 3874 from the Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, U.S.A.     

Deglacial history of glacial lake windermere,UK: implications for the central British and Irish Ice Sheet

In the UK, a combination of outcrop mapping, satellite digital elevation models, high‐resolution marine geophysical data and a range of dating techniques have constrained the maximum limit and overall retreat behaviour of the British and Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The changing styles of deglaciation have been most extensively studied in the west and north‐western sectors of the BIIS, primarily using offshore geophysical surveys. The surviving record in the southern, terrestrial sector is fragmentary, permitting only large‐scale (tens of kilometres) and longer timescale (c. 1 ka) reconstructions of ice‐margin movement, with limited information on deglacial processes. Here we present a high‐resolution study of the retreat behaviour for a section of the southern ice‐margin from Windermere in the Lake District, using high‐resolution two‐dimensional multi‐channel seismic data, processed using prestack depth migration. By combining the seismic stratigraphy with landform morphologies, extant cores and seismic velocity measurements, we are able to distinguish between: over‐consolidated till; recessional moraines; De Geer moraines; flowed till/ice‐front fan; supra‐/en‐glacial melt‐out till; and subsequent glaciolacustrine/lacustrine sedimentation. The results reveal a complex and active valley glacier withdrawal from Windermere that changed character between basins and produced two small, localized areas of ice‐stagnation and downwasting. This study indicates that similar active ice‐margin retreats probably took place in other valleys of the Lake District during the Late Devensian deglaciation rather than the previously held view of rapid ice‐stagnation and downwasting. When combined with the regional terrestrial record, this supports a model of early ice loss in terrestrial England compared with other parts of the UK. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A phytoplankton class-specific primary production model applied to the Kerguelen Islands region (Southern Ocean)

As part of the KErguelen: compared study of the Ocean and the Plateau in Surface water (KEOPS) project in late summer 2005, we examine the phytoplankton community composition and associated primary production in the waters surrounding the Kerguelen Archipelago, with the emphasis on two contrasted environments: (i) the Kerguelen Plateau, where a large bloom occurs annually, and (ii) the high-nutrient low-chlorophyll (HNLC) offshore waters. A biomarker pigment approach was used to assess the community composition in terms of chlorophyll biomass of three phytoplankton size classes, namely micro-, nano-, and picophytoplankton. The second objective was to evaluate a global class-specific approach for estimating the contribution of the three pigment-based size classes to the primary production in the study area. To do so, primary production rates associated with each phytoplankton class were computed from the class-specific chlorophyll biomass coupled to a class-specific primary production model, and compared with in situ measurements of size-fractionated ¹³C-based primary production. The iron-enriched bloom region was dominated by microphytoplankton (diatoms), which contributed 80–90% to the total primary production (of ≈1 g C m^?2 d^?1). In the HNLC area, the primary production was about 0.30 g C m^?2 d^?1, mainly (65%) achieved by small diatoms and nanoflagellates. The model results show a good overall agreement between predicted and measured total primary production rates. In terms of size classes, agreements were higher for the bloom region than for the HNLC waters. Discrepancies in this complex iron-limited area may be explained essentially by the smaller size of diatoms, or a different set of photophysiological properties.     

What do biphasic flow experiments reveal on the variability of exposure on alluvial fans and which implications for risk assessment result from this?

Sudden avulsions, unexpected channel migrations and backfilling phenomena are autogenic phenomena that can considerably change the propagation patterns of sediment-laden flows on alluvial fans. Once the initial and boundary conditions of the hazard scenario with a given return period are determined, the assessment of the associated exposed areas is based on one numerical, essentially deterministic, process simulation which may not adequately capture the underlying process variability. We generated sediment-laden flows on an experimental alluvial fan by following a “similarity-of-process concept”. Specifically, we considered a convexly shaped alluvial fan model layout featuring a curved guiding channel. As loading conditions, we defined a reference, an increased and a reduced level for the released water volume and the predisposed solid fraction, respectively. Further, we imposed two different stream power regimes and accomplished, for each factor combination, eight experimental runs. The associated exposure areas were recorded by video and mapped in a GIS. We then analysed exposure data and determined exposure probability maps superposing the footprints of the eight repetitions associated with each experimental loading condition. The patterns of exposure referred to the specific loading conditions showed a noticeable variability related to the main effects of the total event volume, the solid fraction, the interactions between them, and the imposed stream power in the feeding channel. Our research suggests that adopting a probabilistic notion of exposure in risk assessment and mitigation is advisable. Further, a major challenge consists in adapting numerical codes to better reflect the stochastics of process propagation for more reliable flood hazard assessments.

     

The anatomy of natural disasters on online media: hurricanes and wildfires

Natural Hazards - Increasing prevalence and scale of natural disasters fuel the need for new approaches to evaluating, and eventually mitigating, their impact. This analysis quantifies and compares...     

A New Natural Secondary Reference Material for Garnet U-Pb Dating by TIMS and LA-ICP-MS

Gem quality andradite-rich garnet (IUC-1), obtained from the Miocene trachyte dome near Ankara city (Turkey), has been identified as a potential natural secondary reference material for U-Pb dating. In this study, U-Pb dating was performed in five different laboratories using isotope dilution TIMS and laser ablation ICP-MS to determine the homogeneity of euhedral garnet crystals. The U-Pb ID-TIMS data for IUC-1 yielded ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of 20.9 ± 0.4 and 20.6 ± 0.8 Ma respectively, and these values are consistent with U-Pb LA-ICP-MS analyses, in which different garnet crystals yielded ages of 20.8 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 0.2 and 20.2 ± 0.1 Ma. An andradite (IUC-2) from the Serçeören wollastonite skarn (Turkey) can be used as a secondary reference material provided detailed imaging of the crystals is undertaken. ID-TIMS data yielded ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of 20.4 ± 0.4 and 20.9 ± 1.0 Ma respectively, and yielded U-Pb ages on different grains of 20.5 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 1.0, 20.8 ± 1.7 and 20.9 ± 1.6 Ma. The assigned weighted mean age of IUC-1 (20.4 ± 0.5 Ma, 2s) is proposed as a 2023 reference value. IUC-1 garnet is expected to contribute significantly to rapidly developing garnet geochronology in the near future.