Projecting future drought in Mediterranean forests: bias correction of climate models matters!

Global and regional climate models (GCM and RCM) are generally biased and cannot be used as forcing variables in ecological impact models without some form of prior bias correction. In this study, we investigated the influence of the bias correction method on drought projections in Mediterranean forests in southern France for the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). We used a water balance model with two different atmospheric climate forcings built from the same RCM simulations but using two different correction methods (quantile mapping or anomaly method). Drought, defined here as periods when vegetation functioning is affected by water deficit, was described in terms of intensity, duration and timing. Our results showed that the choice of the bias correction method had little effects on temperature and global radiation projections. However, although both methods led to similar predictions of precipitation amount, they induced strong differences in their temporal distribution, especially during summer. These differences were amplified when the climatic data were used to force the water balance model. On average, the choice of bias correction leads to 45 % uncertainty in the predicted anomalies in drought intensity along with discrepancies in the spatial pattern of the predicted changes and changes in the year-to-year variability in drought characteristics. We conclude that the choice of a bias correction method might have a significant impact on the projections of forest response to climate change.     

Seismic‐stratigraphic record of a deglaciation sequence: from the marine Laflamme Gulf to Lake Saint‐Jean (late Quaternary,Québec,Canada)

The stratigraphy of the last deglaciation sequence is investigated in Lake Saint‐Jean (Québec Province, Canada) based on 300 km of echo‐sounder two dimensional seismic profiles. The sedimentary archive of this basin is documented from the Late Pleistocene Laurentidian ice‐front recession to the present‐day situation. Ten seismic units have been identified that reflect spatio‐temporal variations in depositional processes characterizing different periods of the Saint‐Jean basin evolution. During the postglacial marine flooding, a high deposition rate of mud settling, from proglacial glacimarine and then prodeltaic plumes in the Laflamme Gulf, produced an extensive, up to 50 m thick mud sheet draping the isostatically depressed marine basin floor. Subsequently, a closing of the water body due to glacio‐isostatic rebound occurred at 8.5 cal. ka BP, drastically modifying the hydrodynamics. Hyperpycnal flows appeared because fresh lake water replaced dense marine water. River sediments were transferred towards the deeper part of the lake into river‐related sediment drifts and confined lobes. The closing of the water body is also marked by the onset of a wind‐driven internal circulation associating coastal hydrodynamics and bottom currents with sedimentary features including shoreface deposits, sediment drifts and a prograding shelf‐type body. The fingerprints of a forced regression are well expressed by mouth‐bar systems and by the shoreface–shelf system, the latter unexpected in such a lacustrine setting. In both cases, a regressive surface of lacustrine erosion (RSLE) has been identified, separating sandy mouth‐bar from glaciomarine to prodeltaic muds, and sandy shoreface wedges from the heterolithic shelf‐type body, respectively. The Lake Saint‐Jean record is an example of a regressive succession driven by a glacio‐isostatic rebound and showing the transition from late‐glacial to post‐glacial depositional systems.     

Role of the global oceans and land–atmosphere interaction on summertime interdecadal variability over northern Argentina

This study uses experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to address the role of the oceans and the effect of land–atmosphere coupling on the predictability of summertime rainfall over northern Argentina focusing on interdecadal time scales during 1901–2006. Ensembles of experiments where the AGCM is forced with historical sea surface temperature (SST) in the global, Pacific and tropical-North Atlantic domains are used. The role of land–atmosphere interaction is assessed comparing the output of simulations with active and climatological soil moisture. A maximum covariance analysis between precipitation and SST reveals the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the equatorial–tropical South Atlantic on rainfall over northern Argentina. Model simulations further show that while the dominant influence comes from the Pacific basin, the Atlantic influence can explain a large transition from dry to wet decades over northern Argentina during the beginning of the 1970s. Analysis of anomalies before and after the transition reveals an upper level anticyclonic circulation off the Patagonian coast with barotropic structure. This circulation enhances the moisture transport and convergence in northern Argentina and, together with enhanced evaporation, increased the rainfall after 1970. The SST pattern is dominated by cold conditions in the equatorial Atlantic and warm eastern Pacific and South Atlantic. We also found that land–atmosphere interaction leads to a representation of the long term rainfall evolution over northern Argentina that is closer to the observed one. Moreover, it leads to a smaller dispersion among ensemble members, thus resulting in a larger signal-to-noise ratio.     

Equity implications of marketing ecosystem services in protected areas and rural communities: Case studies from Meso-America

This paper investigates the equity implications of marketing ecosystem services in protected areas and rural communities. We use a three-tiered equity framework to analyse four distinct efforts to commercialise watershed recharge and carbon dioxide fixation by forests in Meso-America. We show that project development and participation are strongly mediated by organisational networks, as well as existing rights of access over land and forest resources. We demonstrate that procedural fairness diverges strongly when initiatives are implemented in protected areas or in rural communities. While in the former reserve managers and intermediaries concentrate all decision-making power, initiatives working with rural communities are able to integrate more significantly service providers in management decisions. Marketing ecosystem services in protected areas contributes to reduce expenditure rates for protected area management, but also results in less equitable outcomes, as rural communities and forest resource users become excluded from receiving sustained development benefits. When ecosystem services are commercialised by rural farmers, payments do not cover opportunity costs but act as a significant incentive for participation in most cases. Ecosystem service providers also benefit from complementary project activities, such as forest management training and agricultural extension support. We argue that limited economic impact and existing inequities in decision-making and outcomes can be explained by problems of institutional design, in particular the inability of markets and payments for ecosystem services to account for context-related factors, such as property rights.     

The mass–metallicity relation in galaxy clusters: the relative importance of cluster membership versus local environment

Using a large (14 857), homogenously selected sample of cluster galaxies identified in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 4, we investigate the impact of cluster membership and local density on the stellar mass–gas phase metallicity relation (MZR). We show that stellar metallicities are not suitable for this work, being relatively insensitive to subtle changes in the MZR. Accurate nebular abundances can be obtained for 1318 cluster galaxies in our sample and we show that these galaxies are drawn from clusters that are fully representative of the parent sample in terms of mass, size, velocity dispersion and richness. By comparing the MZR of the cluster galaxies with a sample of control galaxies matched in mass, redshift, fibre covering fraction and rest-frame   g − r   colour cluster galaxies are found to have, on average, higher metallicities by up to 0.04 dex. The magnitude of this offset does not depend strongly on galactic half-light radius or cluster properties such as velocity dispersion or cluster mass. The effect of local density on the MZR is investigated, using the presence of a near neighbour and both two- and three-dimensional density estimators. For all three metrics, it is found that the cluster galaxies in locally rich environments have higher median metallicities by up to ∼0.05 dex than those in locally poor environments (or without a near neighbour). Control (non-cluster) galaxies at locally high densities exhibit similar metal enhancements. Taken together, these results show that galaxies in clusters are, on average, slightly more metal rich than the field, but that this effect is driven by local overdensity and not simply cluster membership.     

Kinematic interpretation of folds in alpine-type peridotites

From a general understanding of the flow mechanisms in alpine-type peridotites, it is possible to describe without ambiguity the general flow regime and its directions in a massif. This result provides the means for an investigation of the origin of the folding in pyroxenitic layers independent of any preconceived theory on folding.The folds are usually isoclinal and of the flexural-flow type as demonstrated by petrofabric studies in hinges. Their axes are always parallel or subparallel to a mineral lineation which in turn is parallel or close to the orientation of the fabric elements defining the flow line. Their axial plane, which usually coincides with the foliation, is parallel to or close to the flow plane. This conclusion, also supported by paragenetic observations, shows that the folds were formed or transposed during the plastic flow responsible for the development of structures (foliation and lineation), textures and preferred mineral orientations. In the case of the Lanzo Massif and a few other Iherzolite massifs, the flow occurred during the intrusion from the mantle. The mapping in Lanzo yields evidence of a large-scale U-shaped fold with a remarkable pattern of mesoscopic folds attached to it: the tight isoclinal folds are restricted to the limbs of the largescale structure, and the open folds locally refolding former isoclinal ones to the hinge area where the angle between the folded pyroxenitic layering and the axial-plane foliation is large. Stereograms of the field structures in this hinge area clearly illustrate the geometric relations mentioned above.This folding, characterized by its axis and axial plane respectively close to the flow line and flow plane, can be explained either by rotation towards the flow line of non-cylindrical-fold axes or by direct formation in a non-plane flow when the flow line is initially contained in the layering or close to it. In this respect, the folding may bring information on the minor flow component, complementary to that given on the major flow component by considering the textures and fabrics. Finally this folding is shown to be ubiquitous in plastically deformed peridotites. It is proposed that these conclusions be extended to other domains submitted to intense non-plane flow.     

Development of a fish-based index to assess the ecological quality of transitional waters: The case of French estuaries

The Water Framework Directive requires the assessment of the ecological status of transitional waters considering the fish component. An original methodology, based on a pressure-impact approach, was established to develop a multimetric fish-based index to characterize the ecological quality of French estuaries. An index of contamination, based on the chemical pollution affecting aquatic systems, was used as a proxy of anthropogenic pressure. The fish metric selection was based on their response to disturbances tested via statistical models (generalized linear models) taking into account sampling strategy and estuarine features. Four metrics, for which discriminating responses to level of pressure were demonstrated, were retained to constitute the estuarine multimetric fish index. This new tool appeared particularly relevant to detect the contamination effects on fish communities in estuaries. It could help managers to take decisions in order to maintain or reach the good status required by the Water Framework Directive for 2015.     

From rifting to spreading in the eastern Gulf of Aden: a geophysical survey of a young oceanic basin from margin to margin

A geophysical survey in the eastern Gulf of Aden, between the Alula–Fartak (52°E) and the Socotra (55°E) transform faults, was carried out during the Encens–Sheba cruise. The conjugate margins of the Gulf are steep, narrow and asymmetric. Asymmetry of the rifting process is highlighted by the conjugate margins (horst and graben in the north and deep basin in the south). Two transfer fault zones separate the margins into three segments, whereas the present‐day Sheba Ridge is divided into two segments by a transform discontinuity. Therefore segmentation of the Sheba Ridge and that of the conjugate margins did coincide during the early stages of oceanic spreading. Extensive magma production is evidenced in the central part of the western segment. Anomaly 5d was identified in the northern and southern parts of the oceanic basin, thus confirming that seafloor spreading in this part of Gulf of Aden started at least 17.6 Ma ago.     

Tall building performance‐based seismic design using SCEC broadband platform site‐specific ground motion simulations

The scarcity of strong ground motion records presents a challenge for making reliable performance assessments of tall buildings whose seismic design is controlled by large‐magnitude and close‐distance earthquakes. This challenge can be addressed using broadband ground‐motion simulation methods to generate records with site‐specific characteristics of large‐magnitude events. In this paper, simulated site‐specific earthquake seismograms, developed through a related project that was organized through the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Ground Motion Simulation Validation (GMSV) Technical Activity Group, are used for nonlinear response history analyses of two archetype tall buildings for sites in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino. The SCEC GMSV team created the seismograms using the Broadband Platform (BBP) simulations for five site‐specific earthquake scenarios. The two buildings are evaluated using nonlinear dynamic analyses under comparable record suites selected from the simulated BBP catalog and recorded motions from the NGA‐West database. The collapse risks and structural response demands (maximum story drift ratio, peak floor acceleration, and maximum story shear) under the BBP and NGA suites are compared. In general, this study finds that use of the BBP simulations resolves concerns about estimation biases in structural response analysis which are caused by ground motion scaling, unrealistic spectral shapes, and overconservative spectral variations. While there are remaining concerns that strong coherence in some kinematic fault rupture models may lead to an overestimation of velocity pulse effects in the BBP simulations, the simulations are shown to generally yield realistic pulse‐like features of near‐fault ground motion records.