Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies

Abstract

Hydrological data may be temporally autocorrelated requiring autoregressive process parameters to be estimated. Current statistical methods for hydrological change detection in paired watershed studies rely on prediction intervals, but the current form of prediction intervals does not include all appropriate sources of variation. Corrected prediction intervals for the analysis of paired watershed study data that include variation associated with covariance and linear model parameter estimation are presented. We provide an example of their application to data from the Hinkle Creek Paired Watershed Study located in the western Cascade foothills of Southern Oregon, USA. Research implications of using the correct prediction limits and incorporating the estimation uncertainty of autoregressive process parameters are discussed.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Som, N.A., Zégre, N.P., Ganio, L.M. and Skaugset, A.E., 2012. Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 134–143.     

A GIS‐based Vehicle Mobility Estimator for Operational Contexts

A vehicle mobility estimator has been developed to produce decision aid maps for projecting civil or military forces on operational theatres. Based on the exploitation of classical geographical sources (e.g. digital elevation models, optical images, and vector databases) and thematic sources (e.g. climate, meteorological, pedological and land cover databases), the system computes speed maps for different kinds of vehicles moving both on‐road and off‐road. Such computations are realized through a ground‐vehicle interaction module that estimates the vehicle performance from experimental results, numerical simulations and empirical relationships. The system's architecture is built using a GIS interface that manages the data, the computation and the presentation layers. An operational version of this tool has been tested and validated on several operational theatres in France and in northern Africa. The results show good agreement between the predicted mobility performance of various vehicles and those observed on the field. A case study is presented to illustrate the mobility maps and demonstrate their relevance in the decision‐making chain depending on different climate contexts. A short application to itinerary optimization is presented as a promising future application.     

Numerical modelling of circulation and dispersion processes in Boulogne-sur-Mer harbour (Eastern English Channel): sensitivity to physical forcing and harbour design

The MARS-3D model in conjunction with the particle tracking module Ichthyop is used to study circulation and tracer dynamics under a variety of forcing conditions in the eastern English Channel, and in the Boulogne-sur-Mer harbour (referred to hereafter as BLH). Results of hydrodynamic modelling are validated against the tidal gauge data, VHF radar surface velocities and ADCP measurements. Lagrangian tracking experiments are performed with passive particles to study tracer dispersal along the northern French coast, with special emphasis on the BLH. Simulations revealed an anticyclonic eddy generated in the harbour at rising tide. Tracers, released during flood tide at the Liane river mouth, move northward with powerful clockwise rotating current. After the high water, the current direction changes to westward, and tracers leave the harbour through the open boundary. During ebb tide, currents convergence along the western open boundary but no eddy is formed, surface currents inside the harbour are much weaker and the tracer excursion length is small. After the current reversal at low water, particles are advected shoreward resulting in a significant increase of the residence time of tracers released during ebb tide. The effect of wind on particle dispersion was found to be particularly strong. Under strong SW wind, the residence time of particles released during flood tide increases from 1.5 to 6 days. For release during ebb tide, SW wind weakens the southward tidally induced drift and thus the residence time decreases. Similar effects are observed when the freshwater inflow to the harbour is increased from 2 to 10 m³/s during the ebb tide flow. For flood tide conditions, the effect of freshwater inflow is less significant. We also demonstrate an example of innovative coastal management targeted at the reduction of the residence time of the pathogenic material accidentally released in the harbour.     

The 1995–2002 Long-Term Monitoring of Comet C/1995 O1 (HALE–BOPP) at Radio Wavelength

The bright comet Hale–Bopp provided the first opportunity to follow the outgassing rates of a number of molecular species over a large range of heliocentric distances. We present the results of our observing campaign at radio wavelengths which began in August 1995 and ended in January 2002. The observations were carried out with the telescopes of Nançay, IRAM, JCMT, CSO and, since September 1997, SEST. The lines of nine molecules (OH, CO, HCN, CH₃OH, H₂CO, H₂S, CS, CH₃CN and HNC) were monitored. CS, H₂S, H₂CO, CH₃CN were detected up to r_h= 3–4 AU from the Sun, while HCN and CH₃OH were detected up to 6 AU. CO, which is the main driver of cometary activity at heliocentric distances larger than 3–4 AU, was last detected in August 2001, at r_h= 14 AU. The gas production rates obtained from this programme contain important information on the nature of cometary ices, their thermal properties and sublimation mechanisms.Line shapes allow to measure gas expansion velocities, which, at large heliocentric distances, might be directly connected to the temperature of the nucleus surface. Inferred expansion velocity of the gas varied as r_h ^-0.4 within 7 AU from the Sun, but remained close to 0.4 km s^-1 further away. The CO spectra obtained at large r_hare strongly blueshifted and indicative of an important day-to-night asymmetry in outgassing and expansion velocity. The kinetic temperature of the coma, estimated from the relative intensities of the CH₃OH and CO lines, increased with decreasing r_h, from about 10 K at 7 AU to 110 K around perihelion.     

High latitude patterned grounds on Mars: Classification, distribution and climatic control

Patterned grounds such as polygonal features and slope stripes are the signature of the presence of ground ice and of temperature variations in cold regions on Earth. Identifying similar features on Mars is important to understand its past climate as well as the ground ice distribution. In this study, young patterned grounds are classed and mapped from the systematical analysis of Mars Observer Camera high resolution images. These features are located poleward of 55° latitude which fits the distribution of ground ice found by the Neutron Spectrometer onboard Mars Odyssey. Thermal contraction due to seasonal temperature variations is the predominant process of formation of polygons formed by cracks which sizes vary from 15 to 300 m. The small (<40 m) widespread polygons are very recent and degraded by the desiccation of ground ice from the cracks which enhances the effect of ice sublimation. The large polygons (50 to 300 m) located only around the south CO₂ polar cap indicate the presence of ground ice and thus outline the limit of the CO₂ ice cap. They could be due to the blanketing of water ice deposits by the advances and retreats of the residual CO₂ ice cap during the last thousand years. Large (50-250 m) and homogeneous polygons similar to ice wedge polygons, hillslope stripes and solifluction lobes may indicate that specific environments such as crater floors and hillslopes could have been submitted to freeze-thaw cycles, possibly related to higher summer temperatures in periods of obliquity higher than 35°. These interpretations must be strengthened by higher resolution images such as those of the HiRise mission of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter because locations with past seasonal thaw could be of major interest as potential landing sites for the Phoenix mission.     

A major widespread climatic change around 5300 cal. yr BP at the time of the Alpine Iceman

Palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data from Arbon Bleiche, Lake Constance (Switzerland) give evidence of a rapid rise in lake‐level dated by tree‐ring and radiocarbon to 5320 cal. yr BP. This rise event was the latest in a series of three successive episodes of higher lake‐level between 5550 and 5300 cal. yr BP coinciding with glacier advance and tree‐limit decline in the Alps. This west‐central European climate change may have favoured the quick burial and the preservation of the Alpine Iceman recently found in the Tyrolean Alps. It has possible equivalents in many records from various regions in both hemispheres dating to 5600–5000 cal. yr BP and corresponds to global cooling and contrasting patterns of hydrological changes. This major mid‐Holocene climate event marks the Hypsithermal/Neoglaciation transition possibly resulting from a combination of different factors including orbital forcing, changes in ocean circulation and variations in solar activity. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical Composition Diversity Among 24 Comets Observed At Radio Wavelengths

We present a comparative study on molecular abundances in comets basedon millimetre/submillimetre observations made with the IRAM 30-m,JCMT, CSO and SEST telescopes. This study concerns a sample of 24comets (6 Jupiter-family, 3 Halley-family, 15 long-period) observedfrom 1986 to 2001 and 8 molecular species (HCN, HNC, CH₃CN,CH₃OH, H₂CO, CO, CS, H₂S). HCN was detected in all comets,while at least 2 molecules were detected in 19 comets. From the sub-sample of comets for which contemporary H₂O productionrates are available, we infer that the HCN abundance relative to water variesfrom 0.08% to 0.25%. With respect to other species, HCN is the moleculewhich exhibits the lowest abundance variation from comet to comet. Therefore,production rates relative to that of HCN can be used for a comparative study ofmolecular abundances in the 19 comets. It is found that: CH₃OH/HCN varies from ≤ 9 to 64; CO/HCN varies from ≤ 24 to 180; H₂CO/HCN varies between 1.6 and 10; and H₂S/HCN varies between 1.5 and 7.6. This study does not show any clear correlation between the relative abundancesand the dynamical origins of the comets, or their dust-to-gas ratios.