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Climate Dynamics - The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an...  相似文献   
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—The western Alpine regions have been instrumented since the beginning of the century, and the number of seismological stations largely increased since 1980. This dense network has allowed an important improvement in the hypocentral determination, even for low magnitude events. This condition was a good opportunity to perform a synthesis of 32 years of instrumental seismicity in the Western Alps and southeast of France (1962–1993) and to attempt an improvement of the older event location with the assistance of the more recent locations.¶The revised catalogue of seismicity is built using station corrections and regional crustal models. After the elimination of non-natural events, the catalogue is composed of 6697 events. Another improvement corresponds to the revision of magnitudes. We performed several tests to evaluate the reliability of our results location of quarry events and rock bursts, epicentral correlation with geological features, coherence in depth with interpreted seismic profile (ECORS line), Moho isobaths. A first use of this catalogue is presented for the Haute-Ubaye region in the southwestern Alps.  相似文献   
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Evaluating the feasibility of CO2 geologic sequestration requires the use of pressure-temperature-composition (P-T-X) data for mixtures of CO2 and H2O at moderate pressures and temperatures (typically below 500 bar and below 100°C). For this purpose, published experimental P-T-X data in this temperature and pressure range are reviewed. These data cover the two-phase region where a CO2-rich phase (generally gas) and an H2O-rich liquid coexist and are reported as the mutual solubilities of H2O and CO2 in the two coexisting phases. For the most part, mutual solubilities reported from various sources are in good agreement. In this paper, a noniterative procedure is presented to calculate the composition of the compressed CO2 and liquid H2O phases at equilibrium, based on equating chemical potentials and using the Redlich-Kwong equation of state to express departure from ideal behavior. The procedure is an extension of that used by King et al. (1992), covering a broader range of temperatures and experimental data than those authors, and is readily expandable to a nonideal liquid phase. The calculation method and formulation are kept as simple as possible to avoid degrading the performance of numerical models of water-CO2 flows for which they are intended. The method is implemented in a computer routine, and inverse modeling is used to determine, simultaneously, (1) new Redlich-Kwong parameters for the CO2-H2O mixture, and (2) aqueous solubility constants for gaseous and liquid CO2 as a function of temperature. In doing so, mutual solubilities of H2O from 15 to 100°C and CO2 from 12 to 110°C and up to 600 bar are generally reproduced within a few percent of experimental values. Fugacity coefficients of pure CO2 are reproduced mostly within one percent of published reference data.  相似文献   
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Grade estimates are often of weak precision in the case of heterogeneous media, due to their high variability, even at small scale. Qualitative information is then useful to improve the quality of the estimates, without prohibitive additional costs. How can we sample such variables, and detect the ones that are of interest for the estimation of grades? The general methodology is presented and then illustrated for the estimation of the benzo(a)pyren (a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, PAH) concentration in soils, sampled on a former coking plant. To cite this article: N. Jeannée, C. de Fouquet, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).To cite this article: N. Jeannée, C. de Fouquet, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).  相似文献   
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Background

Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071–2100 is predicted to be 1–5.5 °C higher than that for 1971–2000. Climate change and elevated CO2 concentration are anticipated to affect grassland management and livestock production in Europe. However, there has been little work done to quantify the European-wide response of grassland to future climate change. Here we applied ORCHIDEE-GM v2.2, a grid-based model for managed grassland, over European grassland to estimate the impacts of future global change.

Results

Increases in grassland productivity are simulated in response to future global change, which are mainly attributed to the simulated fertilization effect of rising CO2. The results show significant phenology shifts, in particular an earlier winter-spring onset of grass growth over Europe. A longer growing season is projected over southern and southeastern Europe. In other regions, summer drought causes an earlier end to the growing season, overall reducing growing season length. Future global change allows an increase of management intensity with higher than current potential annual grass forage yield, grazing capacity and livestock density, and a shift in seasonal grazing capacity. We found a continual grassland soil carbon sink in Mediterranean, Alpine, North eastern, South eastern and Eastern regions under specific warming level (SWL) of 1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate. However, this carbon sink is found to saturate, and gradually turn to a carbon source at warming level reaching 3.5 °C.

Conclusions

This study provides a European-wide assessment of the future changes in productivity and phenology of grassland, and their consequences for the management intensity and the carbon balance. The simulated productivity increase in response to future global change enables an intensification of grassland management over Europe. However, the simulated increase in the interannual variability of grassland productivity over some regions may reduce the farmers’ ability to take advantage of the increased long-term mean productivity in the face of more frequent, and more severe drops of productivity in the future.
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Water mass variations in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean along 20°W are analyzed with pentadal resolution over the past 15 years using data from four repeat occupations of a meridional hydrographic section running south from Iceland. The section was sampled in 1988, 1993, 1998, and 2003. The results are interpreted in the context of changes in air–sea forcing, ocean circulation, and water properties associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index oscillated around zero from 1984 to 1988, was strongly positive from 1989 to 1995, after which it shifted to lower positive, and occasionally negative values from 1996 to 2003. Previously published studies suggest that after the 1995–1996 shift of the NAO, the subpolar gyre largely retreated to the northwest in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in an increasingly southeastern character of local water masses with time. Water property changes extending from the SubPolar Mode Water (SPMW) just below the seasonal pycnocline through the density range shared by Mediterranean Outflow Water and SubArctic Intermediate Water (SAIW) along 20°W are consistent with changes in wind-driven ocean circulation and air–sea heat flux associated with shifts in the NAO, especially after accounting for ocean memory. After periods of lower NAO index the SPMW is warmer, saltier, and lighter. At these same times, large increases of apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and potential vorticity are found at the SPMW base, consistent with SPMW ventilation to lighter densities during lower NAO index periods. Deeper and denser in the water column, the cold, fresh, and dense SAIW signature within the permanent pycnocline that was most strongly present in 1993, near the culmination of a period of high NAO index, is much reduced in 1988 and 1998. In 2003, after a prolonged period of lower NAO index, increasing influence of warmer, saltier subtropical waters is clear within the permanent pycnocline. The deep penetration of the changes implies that they are caused primarily by circulation changes resulting from NAO-associated wind shifts, but changes in air–sea heat flux could also have played a role.  相似文献   
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