Process oriented use of geostatistics to analyse creeping para‐glacial features

Complex para‐glacial systems may show signs of destabilization leading to frequent and potentially hazardous debris‐flows. Understanding creeping permafrost displacement over a period of time is therefore crucial for hazard management and risks assessment. This paper presents our methodology for estimating creeping permafrost displacement based upon data derived from various survey methods and demonstrates its relevance on the Glacier Bonnard system in southern Switzerland. Geostatistical processing allowed estimation of the displacement intensity over the area of interest, as well as assessment of the interpolation quality. Although the local measurement network needs to be refined, the results largely improve the understanding of the Bonnard para‐glacial system, though highlighting the need to locally refine the measurement network. In the present case, the destabilized front advances at ~1 m/a and the upstream creeping part at ~0.4 m/a. Variance analysis also provide objective thresholds that could be used to distinguish underlying physical processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role of the bedrock topography in the Quaternary filling of a giant estuarine basin: the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary,Eastern Canada

The geometry of estuarine and/or incised‐valley basins and their protected character compared with open sea basins are favourable for the preservation of sedimentary successions. The Lower St. Lawrence Estuary Basin (LSLEB, eastern Canada) is characterized by a thick (>400 m in certain areas) Quaternary succession. High‐ and very high‐resolution seismic reflection data, multibeam bathymetry coverage completed by core and chronostratigraphic data as well as a 3‐D seismic stratigraphic model are used to document the geometrical relationships between the bedrock and the Quaternary units of the LSLEB. The bedrock geometry of LSLEB is characterized by two large troughs that are interpreted as resulting mainly from repeated (?) periods of glacial overdeepening of a pre‐Quaternary drainage system. However, other mechanisms with complex feedback effects such as differential glacio‐isostatic uplift, erosion, sedimentary supply, and subsidence may have contributed to the formation of bedrock troughs. The two large bedrock troughs are mostly filled by ～200 m thick Wisconsinan (Marine Isotopic Stages 2–4) and possibly older sediments. Overlying units recorded the retreat of the Laurentian Ice Sheet during the Late Wisconsinan (Marine Isotopic Stage 2) and estuarine conditions during the Holocene. The strong correlation existing between the bedrock topography and the thickness of the Quaternary succession is indicative of the effectiveness of the LSLEB as a sediment trap.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2008

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2008. During this period, 451 earthquakes and 75 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. The three strongest events occurred in the Valais, near Lac des Toules (M_L 3.6), and in Graubünden, near Ilanz (M_L 3.7) and Paspels (M_L 4.0). Although felt by the population, they were not reported to have caused any damage. However, with a total of only 15 events with M_L ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2008 was far below the average over the previous 33 years.     

Early stages of star formation

The study of the earliest stages of star formation in molecular clouds is one of the fields that should benefit most from ALMA. Improving our understanding of these deeply embedded stages is crucial to gain insight into the origin of stellar masses and binary systems. While the use of large single-dish (sub)millimeter radiotelescopes and existing interferometers has led to good progress on the overall density structure of isolated prestellar cores and young protostars, many questions remain open concerning, e.g., their fragmentation properties and detailed kinematics. Furthermore, the classical paradigm for the formation of single low-mass stars in well-separated, magnetized prestellar cores has been challenged on the grounds that most young stars actually belong to multiple systems and/or coherent clusters. A new paradigm based on supersonic turbulence has emerged which emphasizes the role of dynamical interactions between individual (proto)stars in cluster-forming clumps. The debate is far from settled and ALMA will greatly help to discriminate between these two paradigms.     

Does Manila clam cultivation affect habitats of the engineer species Lanice conchilega (Pallas, 1766)?

The major French site of Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeves, 1850) cultivation is located in the Chausey Archipelago where the associated practices are highly mechanized: every steps of production are made with tractor-driven machinery. The Manila clam concessions are concentrated on Lanice conchilega (Pallas, 1766) bioherms, which are known to increase alpha-diversity and to locally modify sediment dynamics. This study focus on the impacts of Manila clam cultivation on (i) the natural populations of L. conchilega and on (ii) the structure of the associated benthic assemblages during the different steps of the farming production cycle. We found that the L. conchilega populations are significantly affected within the concessions where their total abundances drastically decrease, their spatial patterns are modified and the associated benthic assemblages are significantly altered. Our results are discussed in a context of a sustainable management of the Manila clam cultivation in coastal areas.     

Enhanced bioremediation of crude oil utilizing lipophilic fertilizers combined with biosurfactants and molasses

Many research studies have demonstrated the feasibility and efficacy of fertilization with nitrogen and phosphorus to combat oil spills in marine environments. Rapid dilution of water-soluble nutrients can be overcome by oleophilic formulations that retain optimal nutrient concentrations at the oil-water interface where biodegradation occurs. Previous work has demonstrated that biodegradation processes are enhanced by the addition of lipophilic fertilizers of natural origin (uric acid and lecithin). In this work, we examined the effectiveness of these nutrients in combination with biosurfactants (rhamnolipids) and molasses (source of C and vitamins) to enhance the biodegradation by naturally occurring microorganisms. It was found that the use of biosurfactants resulted in an increased removal of petroleum hydrocarbons (96% removal of C19-C34 n-alkanes within a period of 18 days) as well as in a reduction of the lag phase (almost 80% removal was achieved within the first week of biosurfactant application).     

Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past,present, and future

The surface air temperature increase in the southwestern United States was much larger during the last few decades than the increase in the global mean. While the global temperature increased by about 0.5 °C from 1975 to 2000, the southwestern US temperature increased by about 2 °C. If such an enhanced warming persisted for the next few decades, the southwestern US would suffer devastating consequences. To identify major drivers of southwestern climate change we perform a multiple-linear regression of the past 100 years of the southwestern US temperature and precipitation. We find that in the early twentieth century the warming was dominated by a positive phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) with minor contributions from increasing solar irradiance and concentration of greenhouse gases. The late twentieth century warming was about equally influenced by increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a positive phase of the AMO. The current southwestern US drought is associated with a near maximum AMO index occurring nearly simultaneously with a minimum in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. A similar situation occurred in mid-1950s when precipitation reached its minimum within the instrumental records. If future atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase according to the IPCC scenarios (Solomon et al. in Climate change 2007: working group I. The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, 996 pp, 2007), climate models project a fast rate of southwestern warming accompanied by devastating droughts (Seager et al. in Science 316:1181–1184, 2007; Williams et al. in Nat Clim Chang, 2012). However, the current climate models have not been able to predict the behavior of the AMO and PDO indices. The regression model does support the climate models (CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs) projections of a much warmer and drier southwestern US only if the AMO changes its 1,000 years cyclic behavior and instead continues to rise close to its 1975–2000 rate. If the AMO continues its quasi-cyclic behavior the US SW temperature should remain stable and the precipitation should significantly increase during the next few decades.     

Differential regional responses in drought length, intensity and timing to recent climate changes in a Mediterranean forested ecosystem

The Mediterranean area is one of the regions of the world where GCMs agree the most on precipitation changes due to climate change. In this study we aim to assess the impact of recent climate change on drought features of Mediterranean ecosystems in Southern France. Regional climatic trends for the 1971–2006 period are compared to drought trends based on a water balance model accounting for soil properties, vegetation structure and functioning. Drought, defined here as periods when soil water potentials drop below ??0.5 MPa, is described in terms of intensity, duration and timing, which are integrative of both climate variability and site conditions. Temporal trends in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation lead altogether to drier and warmer conditions over the region but with a high spatial heterogeneity; for similar climatic trends, a significant increase in drought intensity was detected in the wettest areas of the region, whereas drought intensity in the driest areas did not change. Indeed, in the wettest areas, we observed an earlier onset of drought by about 1 month, but a constant end of drought. In the driest areas of the region, we observed the same earlier onset of drought but combined with an earlier end of drought, thus leading to a shift of the dry season without increasing its duration. The definition of drought features both in terms of intensity but also of seasonal timing appears relevant to capture historical or forecasted changes in ecosystem functioning. Studies concerning climate change impacts on forested ecosystems should be interpreted with caution when using climate proxies alone.     

LMDZ5B: the atmospheric component of the IPSL climate model with revisited parameterizations for clouds and convection

Based on a decade of research on cloud processes, a new version of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model has been developed that corresponds to a complete recasting of the parameterization of turbulence, convection and clouds. This LMDZ5B version includes a mass-flux representation of the thermal plumes or rolls of the convective boundary layer, coupled to a bi-Gaussian statistical cloud scheme, as well as a parameterization of the cold pools generated below cumulonimbus by re-evaporation of convective precipitation. The triggering and closure of deep convection are now controlled by lifting processes in the sub-cloud layer. An available lifting energy and lifting power are provided both by the thermal plumes and by the spread of cold pools. The individual parameterizations were carefully validated against the results of explicit high resolution simulations. Here we present the work done to go from those new concepts and developments to a full 3D atmospheric model, used in particular for climate change projections with the IPSL-CM5B coupled model. Based on a series of sensitivity experiments, we document the differences with the previous LMDZ5A version distinguishing the role of parameterization changes from that of model tuning. Improvements found previously in single-column simulations of case studies are confirmed in the 3D model: (1) the convective boundary layer and cumulus clouds are better represented and (2) the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall over continents is delayed by several hours, solving a longstanding problem in climate modeling. The variability of tropical rainfall is also larger in LMDZ5B at intraseasonal time-scales. Significant biases of the LMDZ5A model however remain, or are even sometimes amplified. The paper emphasizes the importance of parameterization improvements and model tuning in the frame of climate change studies as well as the new paradigm that represents the improvement of 3D climate models under the control of single-column case studies simulations.