Role of the global oceans and land–atmosphere interaction on summertime interdecadal variability over northern Argentina

This study uses experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to address the role of the oceans and the effect of land–atmosphere coupling on the predictability of summertime rainfall over northern Argentina focusing on interdecadal time scales during 1901–2006. Ensembles of experiments where the AGCM is forced with historical sea surface temperature (SST) in the global, Pacific and tropical-North Atlantic domains are used. The role of land–atmosphere interaction is assessed comparing the output of simulations with active and climatological soil moisture. A maximum covariance analysis between precipitation and SST reveals the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the equatorial–tropical South Atlantic on rainfall over northern Argentina. Model simulations further show that while the dominant influence comes from the Pacific basin, the Atlantic influence can explain a large transition from dry to wet decades over northern Argentina during the beginning of the 1970s. Analysis of anomalies before and after the transition reveals an upper level anticyclonic circulation off the Patagonian coast with barotropic structure. This circulation enhances the moisture transport and convergence in northern Argentina and, together with enhanced evaporation, increased the rainfall after 1970. The SST pattern is dominated by cold conditions in the equatorial Atlantic and warm eastern Pacific and South Atlantic. We also found that land–atmosphere interaction leads to a representation of the long term rainfall evolution over northern Argentina that is closer to the observed one. Moreover, it leads to a smaller dispersion among ensemble members, thus resulting in a larger signal-to-noise ratio.     

Cloud bands over southern Africa: seasonality, contribution to rainfall variability and modulation by the MJO

Tropical-extratropical cloud band systems over southern Africa, known as tropical temperate troughs (TTTs), are known to contribute substantially to South African summer rainfall. This study performs a comprehensive assessment of the seasonal cycle and rainfall contribution of TTTs by using a novel object-based strategy that explicitly tracks these systems for their full life cycle. The methodology incorporates a simple assignment of station rainfall data to each event, thereby creating a database containing detailed rainfall characteristics for each TTT. This is used to explore the importance of TTTs for rain days and climatological rainfall totals in October–March. Average contributions range from 30 to 60 % with substantial spatial heterogeneity observed. TTT rainfall contributions over the Highveld and eastern escarpment are lower than expected. A short analysis of TTT rainfall variability indicates TTTs provide substantial, but not dominant, intraseasonal and interannual variability in station rainfall totals. TTTs are however responsible for a high proportion of heavy rainfall days. Of 52 extreme rainfall events in the 1979–1999 period, 30 are associated with these tropical-extratropical interactions. Cut-off lows were included in the evolution of 6 of these TTTs. The study concludes with an analysis of the question: does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence the intensity of TTT rainfall over South Africa? Results suggest a weak but significant suppression (enhancement) of intensity during phase 1(6).     

Evaluation of the Global Mean Sea Level Budget between 1993 and 2014

Evaluating global mean sea level (GMSL) in terms of its components—mass and steric—is useful for both quantifying the accuracy of the measurements and understanding the processes that contribute to GMSL rise. In this paper, we review the GMSL budget over two periods—1993 to 2014 and 2005 to 2014—using multiple data sets of both total GMSL and the components (mass and steric). In addition to comparing linear trends, we also compare the level of agreement of the time series. For the longer period (1993–2014), we find closure in terms of the long-term trend but not for year-to-year variations, consistent with other studies. This is due to the lack of sufficient estimates of the amount of natural water mass cycling between the oceans and hydrosphere. For the more recent period (2005–2014), we find closure in both the long-term trend and for month-to-month variations. This is also consistent with previous studies.     

Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies

Abstract

Hydrological data may be temporally autocorrelated requiring autoregressive process parameters to be estimated. Current statistical methods for hydrological change detection in paired watershed studies rely on prediction intervals, but the current form of prediction intervals does not include all appropriate sources of variation. Corrected prediction intervals for the analysis of paired watershed study data that include variation associated with covariance and linear model parameter estimation are presented. We provide an example of their application to data from the Hinkle Creek Paired Watershed Study located in the western Cascade foothills of Southern Oregon, USA. Research implications of using the correct prediction limits and incorporating the estimation uncertainty of autoregressive process parameters are discussed.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Som, N.A., Zégre, N.P., Ganio, L.M. and Skaugset, A.E., 2012. Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 134–143.     

Strong intrusions of the Northern Mediterranean Current on the eastern Gulf of Lion: insights from in-situ observations and high resolution numerical modelling

The Northern Mediterranean Current is the return branch of the cyclonic circulation of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Because of geostrophic constraints, this warm and oligotrophic current is forced to flow westward along the continental slope of the Gulf of Lion. But, occasionally, it penetrates on the shelf and strongly impacts the local biogeochemistry and in turn the primary production. By combining in situ observations and high-resolution modelling, it is shown that intrusions on the eastern part of the gulf are mainly forced by easterly or northwesterly wind events, through physical mechanisms that are very different in nature. Easterlies induce a piling of water along the Gulf of Lion coast that drives, through geostrophy, an alongshore shelf-intruding current. This intrusive current occurs independently of the stratification and is concomitant with the wind forcing. On the other hand, intrusions due to northwesterlies only occur during stratified conditions and are related to the development of upwellings along the Gulf of Lion coasts. When the upwelling develops, a northwestward alongshore pressure force balances the Coriolis force associated with the onshore flow at depth. When the winds drop, the upwelling relaxes and the onshore flow weakens. Consequently, the Coriolis force no longer counterbalances the pressure force that ultimately dominates the momentum balance, causing the displacement of the Northern Current on the Gulf of Lion shelf approximately 1 day after the wind relaxation. This time lag between the northwesterlies decrease and the intrusions permits to anticipate possible changes in the biogeochemistry of the Gulf of Lion.     

Structures in podiform chromite from the Maqsad district (Sumail ophiolite,Oman)

About 15 chromite bodies have been recognized in the Maqsad area of the Oman ophiolite. The occurrence in this area of three chromite bodies within the cumulate sequence must be integrated into the classification of Cassard et al. (1981) which presently explains only those pods lying in the uppermost mantle sequence (plastically deformed harzburgites and dunites). The occurrence of chromite bodies within the cumulates and the abundance of chromite in the Maqsad area are related to the exceptional magmatic activity and the unusual plastic-flow pattern particular to this area. It was probably a feeding zone along the oceanic spreading center sitting on top of a mantle diapir.     

Numerical modelling of circulation and dispersion processes in Boulogne-sur-Mer harbour (Eastern English Channel): sensitivity to physical forcing and harbour design

The MARS-3D model in conjunction with the particle tracking module Ichthyop is used to study circulation and tracer dynamics under a variety of forcing conditions in the eastern English Channel, and in the Boulogne-sur-Mer harbour (referred to hereafter as BLH). Results of hydrodynamic modelling are validated against the tidal gauge data, VHF radar surface velocities and ADCP measurements. Lagrangian tracking experiments are performed with passive particles to study tracer dispersal along the northern French coast, with special emphasis on the BLH. Simulations revealed an anticyclonic eddy generated in the harbour at rising tide. Tracers, released during flood tide at the Liane river mouth, move northward with powerful clockwise rotating current. After the high water, the current direction changes to westward, and tracers leave the harbour through the open boundary. During ebb tide, currents convergence along the western open boundary but no eddy is formed, surface currents inside the harbour are much weaker and the tracer excursion length is small. After the current reversal at low water, particles are advected shoreward resulting in a significant increase of the residence time of tracers released during ebb tide. The effect of wind on particle dispersion was found to be particularly strong. Under strong SW wind, the residence time of particles released during flood tide increases from 1.5 to 6 days. For release during ebb tide, SW wind weakens the southward tidally induced drift and thus the residence time decreases. Similar effects are observed when the freshwater inflow to the harbour is increased from 2 to 10 m³/s during the ebb tide flow. For flood tide conditions, the effect of freshwater inflow is less significant. We also demonstrate an example of innovative coastal management targeted at the reduction of the residence time of the pathogenic material accidentally released in the harbour.     

Erosion balance in the watersheds of the western Paris Basin by high-frequency monitoring of discharge and suspended sediment in surface water

An accurate quantification of erosion, based on high-frequency monitoring of river discharge and suspended sediment fluxes is proposed for two watersheds in the western Paris Basin, a sensitive area with respect to erosion phenomena. This continuous monitoring makes it possible to include flood events of short duration, but significant erosion potential. The obtained erosion rate (16 and 21 t?km^?2?yr^?1) is among the weakest of the planet (3.5 to 18?000 t?km^?2?yr^?1). However, this annual balance does not reflect the behaviour of these rivers which can be torrential in certain cases. To cite this article: B. Laignel et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Combined climatic and geological forcings on the spatio-temporal variability of piezometric levels in the chalk aquifer of Upper Normandy (France) at pluridecennal scale

The temporal variability of water-level fluctuations in the chalk aquifer of Upper Normandy, France is constrained by natural climate fluctuations and is closely linked to the regional geological patterns. The chalk plateaus are covered with 5–50 m thick semi-permeable surficial formations; the thickness of the underlying chalk aquifer varies from 50 to 300 m. The relationship among climate oscillations, piezometric levels, and geologic structure were investigated by correlation, Fourier spectral, and continuous wavelet analyses of selected piezometric time-series data. Analysis focused on two piezometers located on the uplifted side of a major fault and two piezometers on the downthrown side. After generalization to other piezometers in the region, it was deduced that, in the downthrown compartments, a substantial aquifer and surficial formations thickness would imply a strong attenuation of annual variability, while multi-year variability is clearly expressed. Conversely, in the uplifted compartments, a thin layer of surficial formations and small thickness of the chalk authorizes strong variations on the annual mode with respect to the contribution of long-term climatic oscillations (multi-year variability). The results then demonstrated—and proposed a spatial determination of—the differential influence of geological patterns on the filtering of climate-induced oscillations in piezometric variability.