Application of the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method to the Caspian Sea conflict

This study proposes a promising allocation mechanism of the Caspian Sea natural resources, which are presently shared among five countries. To date, these nations have been unable to reach an allocation agreement. We apply a methodology to propose the most appropriate solution under different risk attitudes of the states. This research is different from other studies regarding the Caspian Sea negotiations in that it employs risk-based fuzzy multi attribute decision making methods for simulating the risk attitudes or optimism/pessimism degrees of the decision makers. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) approach, which considers the optimism/pessimism degree quantitatively, is used to take into account the effects of different risk attitudes of the negotiators on the final outcome. We demonstrate how one could obtain a range of alternatives under different multi attribute and risk attitudes. The induced OWA (IOWA) method is also used to determine the relative power of these states bordering the Caspian Sea by considering several attributes, including different risk attitudes of agents. Results indicate that taking into account the risk attitude (prone, neutral, averse) of the states can affect the overall ranking of the proposed solutions. The findings from this study may facilitate negotiation regarding the most preferred allocation mechanism for the Caspian Sea.     

Using micro-catchment experiments for multi-local scale modelling of nature-based solutions

The Q-natural flood management project has co-developed with the Environment Agency 18 monitored micro-catchments (~1 km²) in Cumbria, UK installing calibrated flumes aimed at quantifying the potential shift in observed flows resulting from a range of nature-based-solutions installed by local organizations. The small-scale reduces the influence of variability characterizing larger catchments that would otherwise mask any such shifts, which we attempt to relate to a shift in model parameters. This paper demonstrates an approach to applying donor-parameter-shifts obtained from modelling two of the paired micro-catchments to a much larger scale, in order to understand the potential for improved distributed modelling of nature-based solutions in the form of additional tree-planting. The models include a rainfall-runoff model, Dynamic Topmodel, and a 2D hydrodynamic model, JFlow, permitting analysis of changes in hillslope processes and channel hydrodynamics resulting from a range of distributed measures designed to emulate natural hydrological processes that evaporate, store or infiltrate flows. We report on attempts to detect shift in hydrological response using one of the paired-micro-catchment moorland versus forestry sites in Lorton using Dynamic Topmodel. A donor-parameter-shift approach is used in a hypothetical experiment to represent new woodland in a much larger catchment, although testing all combinations of spatial planting strategies, responses to multiple-extremes, failure-modes and changes to synchronization becomes intractable to support good decision making. We argue that the problem can be re-framed to use donor-parameter-shifts at multi-local-scale catchments above communities known to be at risk, commensurate with most of the evidence of NbS impacts being effective at the small scale (ca. 10 km²). This might lead to more effective modelling to help catchment managers prioritize those communities-at-risk where there is more evidence that NbS might be effective.     

Geomagnetic evolution: 400 years of change on planet Earth

Spherical harmonic coefficients of the geomagnetic field, calculated from historical observations of declination, inclination and intensity, and from archaeomagnetic inclination results, have been used to produce a film of geomagnetic change since 1600 A.D. The non-dipole geomagnetic field is found to be constantly changing: no fixed or standing non-dipole features are observed. Non-dipole foci are seen to have lifetimes of a few hundred years. The westward drift, which was an important feature of the 18th and early 19th century geomagnetic field, was less pronounced in the 17th century. The growth, evolution, decay and replacement of non-dipole foci, but not their movement are found to have been the major features producing century-long secular directional magnetic variation. Most of the low degree and order spherical harmonic coefficients have changed significantly over the last few hundred years. In particular the change in sign of the axisymmetric quadrupole around 1837 A.D. is noted. Sustained, century-long, intensity changes, however, appear to have been dominated by variations in the intensity of the centred dipole, rather than by non-dipole field fluctuations.     

Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness

Hazard maps are considered essential tools in the communication of volcanic risk between scientists, the local authorities and the public. This study investigates the efficacy of such maps for the volcanic island of Montserrat in the West Indies using both quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Normal plan view maps, which have been used on the island over the last 10 years of the crisis, are evaluated against specially produced three-dimensional (3D) maps and perspective photographs. Thirty-two demographically representative respondents of mixed backgrounds, sex, education and location were interviewed and asked to complete a range of tasks and identification on the maps and photographs. The overall results show that ordinary people have problems interpreting their environment as a mapped representation. We found respondents’ ability to locate and orientate themselves as well as convey information relating to volcanic hazards was improved when using aerial photographs rather than traditional plan view contour maps. There was a slight improvement in the use of the 3D maps, especially in terms of topographic recognition. However, the most striking increase in effectiveness was found with the perspective photographs, which enabled people to identify features and their orientation much more readily. For Montserrat it appears that well labelled aerial and perspective photographs are the most effective geo-spatial method of communicating volcanic risks.

In situ calcite U−Pb geochronology by high-sensitivity single-collector LA-SF-ICP-MS

Science China Earth Sciences - U?Pb geochronology of calcite using laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) is an emerging method, with potential applications...     

THE COMPUTATION OF SINGLE STRIPS IN PLAN

This paper discusses a simple method of computing independent strips under certain reasonable approximations. It is shown that, if the method is regarded as if it were computation by polynomials, the order of the polynomial is decided by the nature of the control provided and not by the number of controlled models. This conclusion should throw some light on the vexed (and perennial) problem of the choice of orders for polynomials.     

An evaluation of the health status of the Lavaca Bay, Texas ecosystem using Crassostrea virginica as the sentinel species

Locational risks for compromised ecosystem health for the eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) harvested from Lavaca Bay, Texas were estimated. Flow cytometric evaluation of variations in DNA content and the lysosomal destabilization assay were used for evaluation of genotoxicity and stress, respectively. Bayesian geo-statistical methods were utilized to estimate and evaluate spatial effects. For models with spatial risks, continuous surface maps of predicted parameter values were created to evaluate risk location. Lysosomal destabilization assay results were spatially oriented whereas flow cytometry results were fit best with the random effects model. While not spatially oriented, the highest levels of variations in DNA content were also present near industrial facilities. Locational risks of increased biomarkers of genotoxicity and stress in the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) were increased with proximity to industrial facilities