Identifying step changes in single streamflow and evaporation records due to forest cover change

Techniques that identify forestry‐induced changes to streamflow or evaporation are needed to assess available water resources. Equally, there is a growing appreciation that climate cycles may be having a profound impact on the land‐surface hydrology. The ability to see forestry‐induced change above the effects of climate dynamics, therefore, becomes a critical issue. Paired‐catchment analyses have proved very valuable in identifying change, but cannot quantify the relative impacts of climate and land‐cover change, and data from adjacent reference basins are not always available. Within this study, we examined whether step changes within single time‐series of streamflow or evaporation (P‐Q) could be identified without reference to those of a control catchment. The UC‐DHR method was used for this analysis, and included a special routine to allow a known change‐point (e.g. start of logging) to be specified or alternatively identified by the model. Data from three experimental catchments important for their seminal forestry impact studies were selected for the analyses. The study demonstrated that clear‐cutting 29% of the Hore catchment and 40% selective felling of the Berembun basin produced a step change in the discharge trend that was clearly observable above the climate‐related dynamics and uncertainty. In contrast, step changes in P‐Q following the same selective felling event or following 22% afforestation of the Upper Hodder basin were not larger than the uncertainty bands or magnitude of the inter‐annual cycles produced by the climate dynamics, respectively. This demonstrates that while step changes can be observed in single hydrological time‐series, errors within the observations can sometimes mask the identification of change. This masking of change is also possible where the longer‐term cyclical behaviour in Q or P‐Q from natural climate dynamics is large, while the spatial extent of forestry change is small. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-period seismicity during magma movement at Volcán de Colima

During the period from February to September 2005, Volcán de Colima produced 30 Vulcanian explosions of sufficient magnitude to produce pyroclastic flows of variable size, with a total volume of at least 2.5 × 10⁶ m³. Swarms of long-period events were associated with each event, their duration ranging from about 6 h to 3 days and each swarm containing up to 886 events. The characteristics of the swarms have been studied to understand the source mechanism and their relationship with the Vulcanian explosions. In total, 12,548 long-period events were analysed using various comparative and statistical methods. Patterns were not apparent in the data with no correlation between different properties of the swarms (duration, magnitude or frequency of occurrence of LP events) and the magnitude of the associated Vulcanian explosion, whether recorded by seismicity, volume of pyroclastics or altitude of the eruption column. This, along with other characteristics of the swarms, such as the continuation of the swarm after the explosion, with an increase in long-period event amplitude in some cases, suggests that the mechanism is not merely associated with the pressurization under an impermeable cap and resulting pressure differentials between adjacent volumes within the system. It is more likely that the production of long-period events is dominated by brittle fracturing on the margins of an ascending magma body. A model is proposed whereby the unloading above the ascending magma column produced by a Vulcanian explosion resulted in an increase in ascent rate, reflected in the increasing amplitude of long-period events. The results reflect the complexity of non-linear processes involved during magma ascent, degassing, crystallization and rupture of the impermeable plug during the Vulcanian process. At Volcán de Colima, as at many volcanoes, long-period events represent a useful precursor for eruptive activity. For monitoring, this paper highlights some useful analyses that can be carried out, which could illustrate certain characteristics of an eruptive episode. A preliminary model is presented of the conduit processes at work during the cyclic extrusive and explosive activity during 2005.     

Comparison of methodological uncertainties within permeability measurements

Permeability measurements are critical to the calculation of water‐flow within hillslopes. Despite this, errors in permeability measurements are often ignored, and can be very large particularly in disturbance‐sensitive gley soils. This work compares the uncertainties associated with six field methods of permeametry applied to a gleyed soil in upland Britain. Slug tests, constant‐head borehole permeametry, and falling‐head borehole permeametry were undertaken on established piezometers. Additionally, ring permeametry and two types of trench tests were evaluated. Method‐related uncertainty due to proximity of impeding layers of high sorptivity soils produces under‐ and over‐estimates of permeability by a factor of up to 0·2 and 5, respectively. This uncertainty band is smaller than the observed effects of anisotropy and temporal variability. Had smearing and soil‐ring leakage errors not been minimized, the methodological uncertainties would have been so large that they would have distorted the true spatial field of permeability and its estimated impact on the balance of vertical and lateral flow. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

List of Forthcoming Papers

Other Index

List of Forthcoming Papers     

Granites are not diapiric!

How are granite magmas transported from their source regions in the deep crust, through 10–40 km of overlying solid rock and emplaced close to the Earth's surface? What are the mechanical processes that allow this to take place and how long does it all take? These problems have challenged and preoccupied geologists since the days of Hutton. In the ensuing 200 years or so, a range of ideas from the plausible to the eccentric have been put forward to explain the granite phenomenon. As a result of developments in our understanding of the physical behaviour of granitic magmas and their host rocks over the last decade, we are now in a position to begin to offer some more informed and realistic models of the processes involved.     

RE J1034+396: the origin of the soft X-ray excess and quasi-periodic oscillation

The X-ray quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) seen in RE J1034+396 is so far unique amongst active galactic nuclei (AGN). Here, we look at another unique feature of RE J1034+396, namely its huge soft X-ray excess, to see if this is related in any way to the detection of the QPO. We show that all potential models considered for the soft energy excess can fit the 0.3–10 keV X-ray spectrum, but the energy dependence of the rapid variability (which is dominated by the QPO) strongly supports a spectral decomposition where the soft excess is from low-temperature Comptonization of the disc emission and remains mostly constant, while the rapid variability is produced by the power-law tail changing in normalization. The presence of the QPO in the tail rather than in the disc is a common feature in black hole binaries (BHBs), but low-temperature Comptonization of the disc spectrum is not generally seen in these systems. The main exception to this is GRS 1915+105, the only BHB which routinely shows super-Eddington luminosities. We speculate that the super-Eddington accretion rates lead to a change in disc structure, and that this also triggers the X-ray QPO.     

Deep seated magmas and their mantle roots: Introduction

<正>In the last decade there has been a considerable effort to better understand the joint evolution of mafic and ultramafic magmatic systems and their deep mantle roots,through integrated petrological and thermo-barometric studies.Magma generation is regarded as the result of complex processes including melting,creation of channels for melt transfer,and interaction with the wall-rocks.Complexities in magmatic systems involve metasomatism and the creation of metasomatic fronts,branching and splitting of magma volumes during their evolution,and vat-