Late Holocene sea-surface temperature and precipitation variability in northern Patagonia, Chile (Jacaf Fjord, 44°S)

A high-resolution multi-proxy study including the elemental and isotopic composition of bulk organic matter, land plant-derived biomarkers, and alkenone-based sea-surface temperature (SST) from a marine sedimentary record obtained from the Jacaf Fjord in northern Chilean Patagonia (44°20′S) provided a detailed reconstruction of continental runoff, precipitation, and summer SST spanning the last 1750 yr. We observed two different regimes of climate variability in our record: a relatively dry/warm period before 900 cal yr BP (lower runoff and average SST 1°C warmer than present day) and a wet/cold period after 750 cal yr BP (higher runoff and average SST 1°C colder than present day). Relatively colder SSTs were found during 750–600 and 450–250 cal yr BP, where the latter period roughly corresponds to the interval defined for the Little Ice Age (LIA). Similar climatic swings have been observed previously in continental and marine archives of the last two millennia from central and southern Chile, suggesting a strong latitudinal sensitivity to changes in the Southern Westerly Winds, the main source of precipitation in southern Chile, and validating the regional nature of the LIA. Our results reveal the importance of the Chilean fjord system for recording climate changes of regional and global significance.     

The importance of distribution types on finite element analyses of foundation settlement

We investigate the effects of using different types of statistical distributions (lognormal, gamma, and beta) to characterize the variability of Young’s modulus of soils in random finite element analyses of shallow foundation settlement. We use a two-dimensional linear elastic, plane-strain, finite element model with a rigid footing founded on elastic soil. Poisson’s ratio of the soil is considered constant, and Young’s modulus is characterized using random fields with extreme values of the scale of fluctuation. We perform an extensive sensitivity analysis to compare the distributions of computed settlements when different types of statistical distributions of Young’s modulus, different coefficients of variation of Young’s modulus, and different scales of fluctuation of the random field of Young’s modulus are considered. A large number of realizations are employed in the Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the influence of the tails of the statistical distributions under study. Results indicate the type of distribution considered for characterization of the random field of Young’s modulus can have a significant impact on computed settlement results. In particular, considering different types of distributions of Young’s modulus can lead to more than 600% differences on computed mean settlements for cases with high coefficient of variation and large scale of fluctuation of Young’s modulus. The effect of considering different types of distributions is reduced, but not completely eliminated, for smaller coefficients of variation of Young’s modulus (because the differences between distributions decrease) and for small values of the scale of fluctuation of Young’s modulus (because of an identified “averaging effect”).     

Modelling chemistry in the nocturnal boundary layer above tropical rainforest and a generalised effective nocturnal ozone deposition velocity for sub-ppbv NOx conditions

Measurements of atmospheric composition have been made over a remote rainforest landscape. A box model has previously been demonstrated to model the observed daytime chemistry well. However the box model is unable to explain the nocturnal measurements of relatively high [NO] and [O₃], but relatively low observed [NO₂]. It is shown that a one-dimensional (1-D) column model with simple O₃-NO_x chemistry and a simple representation of vertical transport is able to explain the observed nocturnal concentrations and predict the likely vertical profiles of these species in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL). Concentrations of tracers carried over from the end of the night can affect the atmospheric chemistry of the following day. To ascertain the anomaly introduced by using the box model to represent the NBL, vertically-averaged NBL concentrations at the end of the night are compared between the 1-D model and the box model. It is found that, under low to medium [NO_x] conditions (NO_x?<?1 ppbv), a simple parametrisation can be used to modify the box model deposition velocity of ozone, in order to achieve good agreement between the box and 1-D models for these end-of-night concentrations of NO_x and O₃. This parametrisation would could also be used in global climate-chemistry models with limited vertical resolution near the surface. Box-model results for the following day differ substantially if this effective nocturnal deposition velocity for ozone is implemented; for instance, there is a 9% increase in the following days peak ozone concentration. However under medium to high [NO_x] conditions (NO_x > 1 ppbv), the effect on the chemistry due to the vertical distribution of the species means no box model can adequately represent chemistry in the NBL without modifying reaction rate coefficients.     

Tephra glass chemistry provides storage and discharge details of five magma reservoirs which fed the 75 ka Youngest Toba Tuff eruption,northern Sumatra

The Youngest Toba Tuff contains five distinct glass populations, identified from Ba, Sr and Y compositions, termed PI (lowest Ba) – PV (highest Ba), representing five compositionally distinct pre-eruptive magma batches that fed the eruption. The PI–PV compositions display systematic changes, with higher FeO, CaO, MgO, TiO₂ and lower incompatible element concentrations in the low-SiO₂ PIV/PV, than the high-SiO₂ PI–PIII compositions. Glass shard abundances indicate PIV and PV were the least voluminous magma batches, and PI and PIII the most voluminous. Pressure estimates using rhyolite-MELTS indicate PV magma equilibrated at ~6 km, and PI magma at ~3.8 km. Glass population proportions in distal tephra and proximal (caldera-wall) material describe an eruption which commenced by emptying the deepest PIV and PV reservoirs, this being preferentially deposited in a narrow band across southern India (possibly due to jet-stream and/or plinian eruption transport), and as abundant pumice clasts in the lowermost proximal ignimbrites. Later, shallower magma reservoirs erupted, with PI being the most abundant as the eruption ended, sourcing the majority of distal ash from co-ignimbrite clouds (PI- and PIII-dominant), where associated ignimbrites isolated earlier (PIV- and PV-rich) deposits. This study shows how analysis of tephra glass compositional data can yield pre-eruption magma volume estimates, and enable aspects of magma storage conditions and eruption dynamics to be described.     

Hillslope‐scale probabilistic characterization of soil moisture dynamics and average water balance

Probabilistic water balance modelling provides a useful framework for investigating the interactions between soil, vegetation, and the atmosphere. It has been used to estimate temporal soil moisture dynamics and ecohydrological responses at a point. This study combines a nonlinear rainfall–runoff theory with probabilistic water balance model to represent varied source area runoff as a function of rainfall depth and a runoff coefficient at hillslope scale. Analytical solutions of the soil‐moisture probability density function and average water balance model are then developed. Based on a sensitivity analysis of soil moisture dynamics, we show that when varied source area runoff is incorporated, mean soil moisture is always lower and total runoff higher, compared with the original probabilistic water balance model. The increased runoff from the inclusion of varied source area runoff is mainly because of a reduction in leakage when the index of dryness is less than one and evapotranspiration when the index of dryness is greater than one. Inclusion of varied source area runoff in the model means that the actual evapotranspiration is limited by less available water (i.e. water limit), which is stricter than Budyko’s and Milly’s water limit. Application of the model to a catchment located in Western Australia showed that the method can predict annual value of actual evapotranspiration and streamflow accurately. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

200?years of European temperature variability: insights from and tests of the proxy surrogate reconstruction analog method

Spatially resolved climate reconstructions are commonly derived from long instrumental series and proxy data via linear regression based approaches that use the main modes of the climate system. Such reconstructions have been shown to underestimate climate variability and are based upon the assumption that the main modes of climate variability are stationary back in time. Climate models simulate physically consistent climate fields but cannot be taken to represent the real past climate trajectory because of their necessarily simplified scope and chaotic internal variability. Here, we present sensitivity tests of, and a 200-year temperature reconstruction from, the PSR (Proxy Surrogate Reconstruction) method. This method simultaneously capitalizes on the individual strengths of instrumental/proxy data based reconstructions and model simulations by selecting the model states (analogs) that are most similar with proxy/instrumental data available at specific places and specific moments of time. Sensitivity experiments reveal an optimal PSR configuration and indicate that 6,500 simulation years of existing climate models provide a sufficient pool of possible analogs to skillfully reconstruct monthly European temperature fields during the past 200?years. Reconstruction verification based upon only seven instrumental stations indicates potential for extensions back in time using sparse proxy data. Additionally the PSR method allows evaluation of single time series, in this case the homogeneity of instrumental series, by identifying inconsistencies with the reconstructed climate field. We present an updated European temperature reconstruction including newly homogenized instrumental records performed with the computationally efficient PSR method that proves to capture the total variance of the target.     

A new Fe/Mn geothermometer for hydrothermal systems: Implications for high-salinity fluids at 13°N on the East Pacific Rise

Field and experimental investigations demonstrate the chemistry of mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal vent fluids reflects fluid-mineral reaction at higher temperatures than those typically measured at the seafloor. To account for this and, in turn, be able to better constrain sub-seafloor hydrothermal processes, we have developed an empirical geothermometer based on the dissolved Fe/Mn ratio in high-temperature fluids. Using data from basalt alteration experiments, the relationship; T (°C) = 331.24 + 112.41*log[Fe/Mn] has been calibrated between 350 and 450 °C. The apparent Fe-Mn equilibrium demonstrated by the experimental data is in good agreement with natural vent fluids, suggesting broad applicability. When used in conjunction with constraints imposed by quartz solubility, associated sub-seafloor pressures can be estimated for basalt-hosted systems. As an example, this methodology is used to interpret new data from 13°N on the East Pacific Rise, where high-temperature fluids both enriched and depleted in chloride (339-646 mmol/kg), relative to seawater, are actively venting within a close proximity. Accounting for these variable salinities, active phase separation is clearly taking place at 13°N, yet the fluid Fe/Mn ratios and the silica concentrations suggest equilibration at temperatures less than those coinciding with the two-phase region. These data show the chloride-enriched fluid reflects the highest temperature and pressure (∼432 °C, 400 bars) of equilibration, consistent with circulation near the top of the inferred magma chamber. This is in agreement with the elevated CO₂ concentration relative to the chloride-depleted fluids. The noted temperature derived from the Fe/Mn geothermometer is higher than the critical temperature for a fluid of equivalent salinity. This carries the important implication that, despite being chloride-enriched relative to seawater, these fluids evolved as the vapor component of even higher salinity brine.     

A Simplified Approach to Bridge Substructure Design

Strut-and-tie modeling is an analysis and design tool for reinforced concrete elements in which it may be assumed that internal stresses are transferred through a truss mechanism. The tensile ties and compressive struts serve as truss members connected by nodal zones. The internal truss idealized by the strut-and-tie model implicitly account for the distribution of both flexure and shear. In 1998, the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Specifications (1998) incorporated the strut-and-tie modeling procedure for the analysis and design of deep reinforced concrete members where sectional design approaches are not valid. In most instances, hammerhead piers can be defined as deep reinforced concrete members and therefore, should be designed using the strut-and-tie modeling approach. However, most bridge designers have not embraced the strut-and-tie model due to the unfamiliarity with the design procedure, the inability to check the truss model??s validity (without laboratory tests or a finite element model), and the time it takes to complete the strut-and-tie model analysis and design. Therefore, with the formulation of a well-defined strut-and-tie modeling procedure, practicing engineers will become more comfortable with the design method and employ the method more often and more consistently. This paper presents a uniform design procedure for employing strut-and-tie modeling for hammerhead piers that can be readily utilized by practicing engineers. Additionally, a comparison between the strut-and-tie method and standard sectional design practices will be performed for a typical hammerhead pier.