青藏高原对亚洲季风平均环流影响的数值试验

利用垂直方向具有９层σ面、水平方向菱形截断波数为１５的全球大气环流谱模式和有、无青藏高原大地形两种情况下１０年积分的模拟结果，研究了青藏高原大地形对亚洲季风平均环流的影响。结果表明：有、无青藏高原大地形，亚洲冬、夏季季风平均环流均存在很大的差异。去除地形，使夏季高层的南亚高压、低层的大陆热低压、副热带高压及冬季的大陆冷高压在位置或强度上发生了改变；地形的有、无决定着冬季东亚大槽的强度；索马里越赤道气流有地形时明显较无地形时强；地形的有无还影响着降水强度和雨带的分布。另外，副热带高压中心及雨带的季节性移动与高原大地形的存在与否亦有很大的关系     

Effects of land cover type conversion on water exchange and climate change in the source area of the Yellow River

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The surface radiation and energy flux in the source area of the Yellow River are estimated by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer products...     

吉林省四季气温变化趋势和振荡周期的分析

本文通过对吉林省四季气温时间序列的趋势分析和谱分析,揭示出吉林省夏季气温自本世纪40年代中期至70年代末处于下降趋势,80年代初又略有回升。冬季气温从30年代开始一直处于上升趋势,80年代初又略有下降。春季气温变化趋势与冬季相似,秋季基本与夏季一致。夏季气温存在18年左右显著周期,春秋季气温存在12年和2年左右周期,冬季气温存在9年左右主要周期。     

Scattering pattern analysis and true-amplitude generalized Radon transform migration for acoustic transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry

In multi-parameter ray-based anisotropic migration/inversion, it is essential that we have an understanding of the scattering mechanism corresponding to parameter perturbations. Because the complex nonlinearity in the anisotropic inversion problem is intractable, the construction of true-amplitude linearized migration/inversion procedures is needed and important. By using the acoustic medium assumption for transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry and representing the anisotropy with P-wave normal moveout velocity, Thomsen parameter δ and anelliptic parameter η, we formalize the linearized inverse scattering problem for three-dimensional pseudo-acoustic equations. Deploying the single-scattering approximation and an elliptically anisotropic background introduces a new linear integral operator that connects the discontinuous perturbation parameters with the multi-shot/multi-offset P-wave scattered data. We further apply the high-frequency asymptotic Green's function and its derivatives to the integral operator, and then the scattering pattern of each perturbation parameter can be explicitly presented. By naturally establishing a connection to generalized Radon transform, the pseudo-inverse of the integral operator can be solved by the generalized Radon transform inversion. In consideration of the structure of this pseudo-inverse operator, the computational implementation is done pointwise by shooting a fan of rays from the target imaging area towards the acquisition system. Results from two-dimensional numerical tests show amplitude-preserving images with high quality.     

Real-time seismology for the 05/12/2008 Wenchuan earthquake of China: A retrospective view

The devastating 05/12/2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M_w7.9) in Sichuan Province of China showed very few precursory phenomena and occurred on a fault system once assigned to be of moderate long term seismic risk. Given the existing coverage of seismograph stations in Sichuan Province, real-time seismology could have been effective in avoiding some earthquake damage and helping post-earthquake emergency response. In a retrospective view, we demonstrated that the epicenter can be located with 20 km accuracy using just two broadband stations with three-component, which takes only about 10 s after the onset of the earthquake. Initial magnitude is estimated to be M7 with the Tc measurement over first 4 seconds of P waves. Better magnitude estimate can be obtained within 2 min by modeling Pnl waves for stations about 500 km away where the S waveforms are clipped. The rupture area is well revealed by teleseismically-recorded >M5 early aftershocks within two hours after the mainshock. Within a few hours, teleseismic body waves were inverted to derive a more detailed rupture process and the finite fault model can be readily used to calculate ground motions, thus providing vital information for rescue efforts in the case where no real-time strong motion records are available. Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-116-1) and National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2006BAC03B00)     

The magma evolution of Tianchi volcano, Changbaishan

The Changbaishan Tianchi volcano is composed of the basaltic rocks at the shield-forming stage, the trachyte and pantellerite at the cone-forming stage and modern eruption. Studies on their REE, incompatible elements and Sr, Nd, Pb isotopes suggest that rocks at different stages have a common magma genesis and close evolution relationship with differentiation crystallization playing the key role. The co-eruption of basaltic trachyandesite magma and pantellerite magma indicates that there exist both crustal magma chamber and mantle magma reservoir beneath the Tianchi volcano. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49672109).     

DIAGNOSTIC STUDY FOR INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OF THE MIDDLE-HIGH LATITUDES IN A LOW RESOLUTION GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL

In this paper, five-year simulated data from a low-resolution global spectral model with triangular trunca-lion at wavenumber 10 are analyzed in order to study dynamical features and propagation characteristics ofintraseasonal oxillations over the mid-latitudes and the tropical atmosphere. The simulations show that thereis the 30-50 day periodic oscillation in the low-resolution spectral model without non-seasonal external forcing,and spatial scale of the intraseasonal oscihations is of the globe .Further analysis finds that propagation charac-ters of intraseasonal oscillations over the mid-latitudes and the tropics are different. The 30-50 day oscillationover the tropics exhibits structure of the velocity potential wave with wavenumber 1 in the latitudinal and thecharacter of the traveling wave eastward at speed of 8 longitudes/day. However, the 30-50 day oscillationsin mid-latitude atmosphere exhibit phase and amplitude oscillation of the standing planetary waves and theyare related to transform of teleconnection patterns over the mid-latitudes. The energy is not only transferredbetween the tropics and the middle-high latitudes, but also between different regions over the tropics. Based on the analysis of 5-year band pass filtered data from a 5-layer global spectral model of Jow-ordetwith truncated wavenumber l0,investigation is done of the source of intraseasonal oscillations in the extratropicalmodel atmosphere and its mechanism. Results show that (1) the convective heat transferred eastward alongthe equator serves as the source of the intraseasonal oxillation both in the tropical and the extratropical atmos--phere; (2) the velocity-potential wave of a zonal structure of wavenumber 1 gives rise to oxillation in divergentand convergent wind fields of a dipole-form as seen from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the western Pacificduring its eastward propagation, thus indicating the oscillation in the dipole-form heat soure:e/sink pattertl; (3)the tropical heat-source oscillation is responsible for the variation in phase and intensity of the extratropicalstationary wave train, and the interaction between the oscillating low-frequency inertial gravity and stationaryRossby modes that are probably mechanisms for the oscillations ip the middle-high latitudes.     

基于动态聚类法的安顺降雪环流分型研究

该文以500 hPa环流作为关键影响因子,采用K-means动态聚类分型,将近10 a安顺降雪划分为平直气流型（Ⅰ）、南支槽型（Ⅱ）、多波动型（Ⅲ）3种主要形势。个例分析和合成分析表明:3种形势下降雪过程中相态变化、区域、持续时间等特点有所不同。合成分析还表明：3种形势在500 hPa环流上有明显的区别,Ⅰ型在高原东侧到贵州的气流基本平直,Ⅱ型从高原东侧到贵州有1个明显的南支槽,Ⅲ型在高原东侧到贵州有多个波动槽影响,在高原北侧沿河套地区和孟湾以东均有槽影响,形成阶梯槽。此外滇黔准静止锋的强度、影响区域、物理量以及垂直方向湿度配置、逆温等方面均有所区别：Ⅰ型湿层和上升区浅薄,有1℃左右逆温;Ⅱ型湿层较薄,Ⅱ型在贵州中部有3℃逆温范围较窄;Ⅲ型中低层有宽广的湿层,水汽和抬升条件配合较好,几乎没有逆温。     

祁连山区冬半年积雪分布及变化的遥感研究

利用国家卫星中心提供的1996—2002年冬半年(11月～翌年4月)的旬积雪数据、地面气象站温度和实测积雪数据,以及结合祁连山区DEM数据,研究了同期祁连山区积雪时空分布及其变化特征。结果表明:祁连山区冬半年积雪大多随山脉走向呈带状分布在山脊区,而山谷和南面盆地分布较少;积雪西段最多,东段次之,中段最少。祁连山区不同积雪频率所分布的平均高度的基本趋势为积雪频率越大分布的高度也越高。就不同频率的积雪而言,频率越低所占比例越大,频率越高所占比例越小;总体上祁连山区在1998/1999年冬季积雪达到最小值,在1998/1999年冬季之前呈波动变化,之后呈持续显著增加的趋势,但主要贡献在低频率。对祁连山东、中、西三段而言,东、中两段在1998/1999年冬季前呈减少趋势,1998/1999年冬季后呈增加趋势,东、中两段平均积雪频率变化量很接近;而西段从1996/1997年冬季开始呈缓慢增加的趋势,而且积雪平均出现频率明显要比东、中两段高很多。祁连山东、中、西三段积雪覆盖度随着高度增加而增大,只有中段在1999—2001年随着高度的递增积雪覆盖度增加不明显,变化趋势比较复杂,这可能与中段所受天气系统和地形等的影响比较复杂有关。     

一次局地大暴雨的地面观测资料同化预报试验研究

基于WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式及其3DVAR（3-Dimentional Variational）资料同化系统,采用36 km、12 km 、4 km三层嵌套网格进行逐3 h资料同化和快速更新循环预报,对2011年5月8日鲁中一次局地大暴雨过程进行了资料同化敏感性试验。试验结果表明,地面观测资料同化和快速更新循环对本次降水的预报起到了关键性作用。在快速更新循环预报时不同化地面观测资料,或同化全部观测资料进行冷启动预报,模式均不能预报出山东的降水。同化地面观测资料后,显著改进了模式降水落区预报。地面观测资料同化可以影响到700 hPa高度以上温压湿风要素的变化,从而改变了大气初始场的温湿结构,导致模式预报的700 hPa附近高空大气湿度和热力不稳定增强,700 hPa以下低层风场更强,850 hPa鲁中以南风速较无观测资料同化的偏强2～4 m·s-1,低层风场的动力作用触发高空的不稳定大气,降水出现在山东。