Multi-hazard assessment using machine learning and remote sensing in the North Central region of Vietnam

Natural hazards constitute a diverse category and are unevenly distributed in time and space. This hinders predictive efforts, leading to significant impacts on human life and economies. Multi-hazard prediction is vital for any natural hazard risk management plan. The main objective of this study was the development of a multi-hazard susceptibility mapping framework, by combining two natural hazards—flooding and landslides—in the North Central region of Vietnam. This was accomplished using support vector machines, random forest, and AdaBoost. The input data consisted of 4591 flood points, 1315 landslide points, and 13 conditioning factors, split into training (70%), and testing (30%) datasets. The accuracy of the models' predictions was evaluated using the statistical indices root mean square error, area under curve (AUC), mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination. All proposed models were good at predicting multi-hazard susceptibility, with AUC values over 0.95. Among them, the AUC value for the support vector machine model was 0.98 and 0.99 for landslide and flood, respectively. For the random forest model, these values were 0.98 and 0.98, and for AdaBoost, they were 0.99 and 0.99. The multi-hazard maps were built by combining the landslide and flood susceptibility maps. The results showed that approximately 60% of the study area was affected by landslides, 30% by flood, and 8% by both hazards. These results illustrate how North Central is one of the regions of Vietnam that is most severely affected by natural hazards, particularly flooding, and landslides. The proposed models adapt to evaluate multi-hazard susceptibility at different scales, although expert intervention is also required, to optimize the algorithms. Multi-hazard maps can provide a valuable point of reference for decision makers in sustainable land-use planning and infrastructure development in regions faced with multiple hazards, and to prevent and reduce more effectively the frequency of floods and landslides and their damage to human life and property.     

Erodibility study of sediment in a fast-flowing river

Determination of sediment stability in the field is challenging because bed shear stress (BSS), a determining factor of sediment erosion, can’t easily be directly measured. To tackle this challenge and reliably assess sediment erodibility in a fast flowing river, a standalone underwater camera system and a new insitu flume (ISF) were developed and applied in this study. The camera system was used to record sediment movement and the new ISF was used for measuring critical bottom shear stress (CBSS). The camera can be deployed alone in water to record videos or take pictures with light emitting diode (LED) lighting and flexible schedule settings. The ISF is based on the concept that the amount of force needed to erode the same particle under different flow conditions should be similar. Two high resolution Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) also were deployed in the field to collect velocity-depth profiles which are used by conventional methods to calculate BSS with the law of the wall. The sediment erodibility was then assessed based on the comparison between the obtained CBSS and BSS and then further verified with the recorded observations from the deployed camera. The results reveal that the widely used conventional method can produce large uncertainties and is not adequate to provide meaningful conclusion under these conditions.     

Natural radiation and its hazard in copper ore mines in Poland

The doses of gamma radiation, concentrations of radium isotopes in water and sediments, radon concentration and concentration of alpha potential energy of radon decay products in the copper ore mine and in the mining region in the vicinity of Lubin town in Poland are presented. These data served as a basis for the assessment of radiological hazard to the mine workers and general public. The results of this assessment indicate that radiological hazard in the region does not differ substantially from typical values associated with natural radiation background. The calculated average annual effective dose for copper miners is 1.48 mSv. In general, copper ore mines can be regarded as radiologically safe workplaces.     

Total organic carbon fluxes of the Red River system (Vietnam)

Riverine transport of organic carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the oceans plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. The Red River is located in Southeast Asia where river discharge, sediment loads and fluxes of elements (carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus) associated with suspended solids have been dramatically altered over past decades as a result of reservoir impoundment and land use, population, and climate change. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations were measured monthly at four stations of the Red River system from January 2008 to December 2010. The results reveal that POC changed synchronically with total suspended solids (TSS) concentration and with the river discharge, whereas no clear trend was observed for DOC concentration. The mean value of total organic carbon (TOC = DOC + POC) flux in the delta of the Red River was 31.5 × 10¹³ ± 4.0 × 10¹³ MgC.yr^?1 (range 27.9–35.8 × 10¹³ MgC.yr^?1 which leads to a specific TOC flux of 2012 ± 255 kgC.km^?2.yr^?1 during this 2008–2010 period. About 80% of the TOC flux was transferred to the estuary during the rainy season as a consequence of the higher river water discharge. The high mean value of the POC:Chl‐a ratio (1585 ± 870 mgC.mgChl‐a^?1) and the moderate C:N ratio (7.3 ± 0.1) in the water column system suggest that organic carbon in the Red River system is mainly derived from erosion and soil leaching in the basin. The effect of two new dam impoundments in the Red River was also observable with lower TOC fluxes in 2010 compared with 2008. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Slope stability analysis using a physically based model: a case study from A Luoi district in Thua Thien-Hue Province,Vietnam

A case study of slope stability mapping is presented for the A Luoi district situated in the mountainous western part of Thua Thien-Hue Province in Central Vietnam, where slope failures occur frequently and seriously affect local living conditions. The methodology is based on the infinite slope stability model, which calculates a safety factor as the ratio between shear strength and shear stress. The triggering mechanism for slope instability considered in the analysis is the maximum daily precipitation recorded in a 28-year period (1976–2003) taking into account runoff and infiltration predicted with a hydrological model. All necessary physical parameters are derived from topography, soil texture, and land use, in GIS-raster grid format with pixel size of 30 by 30 m. Results of the analysis are compared with a slope failure inventory map of 2001, showing that more than 86.9 % of the existing slope failures are well predicted by the physically based slope stability model. It can be concluded that the larger part of the study area is prone to landsliding. The resulting slope stability map is useful for further research and land-use planning, but for precise prediction of future slope failures, more effort is needed with respect to spatial variation of causative factors and analysis techniques.     

The occurrence of cyanobacteria and microcystins in the Hoan Kiem Lake and the Nui Coc reservoir (North Vietnam)

The occurrence of increasing blooms of toxic cyanobacteria in freshwaters has received much attention due to the ability of many cyanobacteria to produce potent cyanotoxins. In this paper, the occurrence of dominant cyanobacteria and the concentration of microcystins (MCs) analysis were investigated monthly from July 2008 to April 2009 in the Hoan Kiem Lake and from February to April 2009 in the Nui Coc reservoir. Concentrations of intracellular MCs from water, bloom samples, and isolated strains were quantified by using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). During the study period, the microscopic examination of the phytoplankton samples showed the dominance of the genus Microcystis in the water environment of the Hoan Kiem Lake and the Nui Coc reservoir. The toxin analysis by HPLC demonstrated the presence of two MC variants: MC-LR and MC-RR in water samples. Total concentrations of the toxins in filtered samples from surface water ranged from non-detected to 0.91 μg L^?1 at Nui Coc reservoir and they ranged from 2.1 to 46.0 μg L^?1 at Hoan Kiem Lake. The results of the HPLC analysis confirmed the production of MCs in bloom samples (ranged from 115.9 to 184.6 μg L^?1 in the Hoan Kiem Lake and from 726.5 to 1116 μg L^?1 in the Nui Coc reservoir) and isolated strains of Anabaena sp. and Microcystis with the concentration of MC ranging from 152 to 396.2 μg g^?1 dry mass, respectively.     

Flood forecasting in large rivers with data-driven models

Results from the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast water levels at 3 stations along the mainstream of the Lower Mekong River are reported in this paper. The study investigated the effects of including water levels from upstream stations and tributaries, and rainfall as inputs to ANFIS models developed for the 3 stations. When upstream water levels in the mainstream were used as input, improvements to forecasts were realized only when the water levels from 1 or at most 2 upstream stations were included. This is because when there are significant contributions of flow from the tributaries, the correlation between the water levels in the upstream stations and stations of interest decreases, limiting the effectiveness of including water levels from upstream stations as inputs. In addition, only improvements at short lead times were achieved. Including the water level from the tributaries did not significantly improve forecast results. This is attributed mainly to the fact that the flow contributions represented by the tributaries may not be significant enough, given that there could be large volume of flow discharging directly from the catchments which are ungauged, into the mainstream. The largest improvement for 1-day forecasts was obtained for Kratie station where lateral flow contribution was 17 %, the highest for the 3 stations considered. The inclusion of rainfall as input resulted in significant improvements to long-term forecasts. For Thakhek, where rainfall is most significant, the persistence index and coefficient of efficiency for 5-lead-day forecasts improved from 0.17 to 0.44 and 0.89 to 0.93, respectively, whereas the root mean square error decreased from 0.83 to 0.69 m.     

Long‐term seismic performance of reinforced concrete bridges under steel reinforcement corrosion due to chloride attack

This work presents a new seismic evaluation methodology for corroded reinforced concrete bridges on the basis of nonlinear static pushover analysis. Corrosion of steel reinforcement by chloride attack is considered. At the material level, the effects of corrosion are considered by modeling the degradation of the mechanical properties of steel reinforcement, softening of cover concrete under compression, degradation of core concrete due to confinement steel corrosion, and reduction of bond strength between concrete and steel reinforcement. At the structural level, the effects of corrosion on both flexural behavior and shear behavior, and their interaction are considered. Eleven bridges of various structural types in Taiwan that are located within 6.5 km of their nearest coastline are analyzed to identify their long‐term seismic performance. Relationships between the yield and collapse peak ground accelerations (PGAs), and service time and corrosion level are established for each bridge. Analysis results show that chloride corrosion starts in 2–32 years. The transverse steel reinforcement typically starts corroding before the longitudinal steel reinforcement, as the former has a thicker cover. Research results show that collapse PGA reduces by 0.94% or 1.23% per 10 years when the mean value plus 1 or 2 standard deviation of the collapse PGA values are considered, respectively. Therefore, we suggest increasing the design PGA from 4.70% to 6.15% for a bridge adjacent to a coastline to ensure adequate long‐term seismic performance for 50 years, the typical design life span of a regular bridge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from rural household biomass burning in a typical Chinese village

Biomass energy sources are still popular in the rural areas of developing countries for cooking and space heating. Since the incomplete combustion of agricultural residues in home-made ranges might lead to both outdoor and indoor air pollution and cause potential health threat to the rural population, we monitored the ambient levels of 16 US EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at a typical rural site. Ambient particulate PAH samples (PM2.5 and PM10) were taken during both cooking and non-cooking periods. Source emission monitoring was also conducted for both improved and tra- ditional cooking stoves used in the area. Ambient PAHs had a significant increase during the cooking periods and varied from 72.1 to 554.4 ng/m3. The highest total PAH levels were found during the supper cooking time, in which five- and six-ring species accounted for a large proportion. The observed PAH levels during cooking periods at this rural site were even higher than those in urban areas. A good correlation was found between the benzo[a]pyrene level and the total PAH concentration (r=0.98), making benzo[a]pyrene a potential molecular marker for PAH pollution in the rural areas, where bio- mass burning is typical. The profiles of the particulate PAHs in both ambient air and source emissions showed a high proportion of high molecular-mass PAHs. In addition, emission factors of 16 PAHs from an improved household stove were found to be significantly lower than those from traditional stoves used in China and in other Asian countries.