Seismic Empirical Relations for the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, and their Usefulness for Seismic Risk Assessment

Seismic events that occurred during the past half century in the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, are used to establish fundamental seismic empirical relations, tying earthquake magnitude to source parameters (seismic moment, fault plane area, maximal displacement along the fault, and fault plane length). Those empirical relations applied to the overall seismicity from 1716 to present are used to transform the magnitude (or intensity) versus time distribution into (1) cumulative seismic moment versus time, and (2) cumulative displacements versus time. Both of those parameters as well as the computed seismic moment rate, the strain rate along the Tellian Atlas strike, and various other geological observations are consistent with the existence, in the Tellian Atlas, of three distinct active tectonic blocks. These blocks are seismically decoupled from each other, thus allowing consideration of the seismicity as occurring in three different distinct seismotectonic blocks. The cumulative displacement versus time from 1900 to present for each of these tectonic blocks presents a remarkable pattern of recurrence time intervals and precursors associated with major earthquakes. Indeed, most major earthquakes that occurred in these three blocks might have been predicted in time. The Tellian Atlas historical seismicity from the year 881 to the present more substantially confirms these observations, in particular for the western block of the Tellian Atlas. Theoretical determination of recurrence time intervals for the Tellian Atlas large earthquakes using Molnar and Kostrov formalisms is also consistent with these observations. Substantial observations support the fact that the western and central Tellian Atlas are currently at very high seismic risk, in particular the central part. Indeed, most of the accumulated seismic energy in the central Tellian Atlas crust has yet to be released, despite the occurrence of the recent destructive May 2003 Boumerdes earthquake (M _w = 6.8). The accumulated seismic energy is equivalent to a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. In situ stress and geodetic measurements, as well as other geophysical field data measurements, are now required to practically check the validity of those observations.     

The North Cycladic Detachment System

Low-angle normal faults accommodate a large part of continental post-orogenic extension. Besides the intrinsic rheological characteristics of the continental crust that may lead to the formation of shallow-dipping shear zones at the brittle–ductile transition, the role of pre-existing low-angle structures such as large thrusts has been proposed by several authors. We explore this question with the example of the North Cycladic Detachment System (NCDS) that is composed of a series of distinct detachments cropping out on the islands of Andros, Tinos and Mykonos, separating the Cycladic Blueschists in the footwall from the Upper Cycladic Nappe in the hanging wall. We show that these extensional structures are part of a single large-scale structure (more than 200 km along strike) that reactivates the Vardar suture zone. It extends eastward on Ikaria and westward offshore Evia and Thessalia where it probably connects to recent shallow-dipping normal faults evidenced on published seismic reflection profiles. The NCDS started its activity in the Oligocene concommitantly with the Aegean extension, and was still active in the Late Miocene. It has exhumed a series of metamorphic domes from southern Evia to Mykonos below low-angle detachment systems, made of low-angle normal faults and low-angle ductile shear zones. The ductile shear zones and the faults were created with a low dip and they kept the same attitude throughout their exhumation. We identify three main detachments that are part of a continuum of extension on the NCDS : Tinos detachment, Livada detachment and Mykonos detachment. A fourth detachment (Vari detachment) is the reactivation of an Eocene exhumation-related structure. Deformation in the footwall is characterized by intense stretching and flattening. Using the spatial evolution observed along strike from Andros to Mykonos we construct a history of formation of the NCDS starting with the reactivation of former thrusts leading to the exhumation of high-temperature metamorphic domes. The Aegean example shows that reactivation of earlier shallow-dipping discontinuities can play a fundamental role in continental post-orogenic extension.     

Validation and use of rainfall radar data to simulate water flows in the Rio Escondido basin

This paper presents a combined validation method of radar-sensed rainfall, using rain gauge data and hydrologic closure, with an application to the Rio Escondido basin (North-East of Mexico). The space–time scaling behavior of rainfall between rain gauge and radar scales is compared with the intrinsic variability of rainfall, for a statistical validation of space–time variability. For hydrological validation purposes, the CEQUEAU model is used to perform rainfall-runoff routing. It provides a basin-wide water balance, to be compared with the measured water flow at the Villa de Fuentes hydrometric station, for mean-value gauging closure. A good qualitative agreement in terms of hydrograph shape and timing is obtained between the simulated and the observed water flows, and a multiplicative correction factor of an initially proposed Z–R relationship is adopted for the watershed under study, which agrees approximately with other authors’ findings about that relationship. The results are considered particularly useful as a validation-and-correction methodology of radar rainfall estimates for areas sparsely covered by rain gauges.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of size-structured photosynthetic parameters (PAM) and primary production ((13)C) of pico- and nano-phytoplankton in an atoll lagoon

Atoll lagoons display a high diversity of trophic states due mainly to their specific geomorphology, and probably to their level and mode of human exploitation. We investigated the functioning of the Ahe atoll lagoon, utilized for pearl oyster farming, through estimations of photosynthetic parameters (pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry) and primary production ((13)C incorporation) measurements of the size structured phytoplankton biomass (<2μm and >2μm). Spatial and temporal scales of variability were surveyed during four seasons, over 16months, at four sites within the lagoon. While primary production (P) was dominated by the picophytoplankton, its biomass specific primary productivity (P(B)) was lower than in other atoll lagoons. The variables size fraction of the phytoplankton, water temperature, season, the interaction term station*fraction and site, explained significantly the variance of the data set using redundancy analysis. No significant trends over depth were observed in the range of 0-20m. A clear spatial pattern was found which was persistent over the seasons: south and north sites were different from the two central stations for most of the measured variables. This pattern could possibly be explained by the existence of water cells showing different water residence time within the lagoon. Photoacclimation strategies of the two size fractions differed through their light saturation coefficient (higher for picophytoplankton), but not through their maximum photosynthetic capacity (ETR(max)). Positive linear relationships between photosynthetic parameters indicated that their dynamic was independent of light availability in this ecosystem, but most probably dependent on nutrient availability and/or rapid changes in the community structure. Spatial and temporal patterns of the measured processes are then further discussed in the context of nutrient availability and the possible role of cultured oysters in nutrient recycling.     

Site effect assessment using KiK-net data: Part 1. A simple correction procedure for surface/downhole spectral ratios

When data is available, the estimation of site effects is usually performed using the “standard spectral ratio” (SSR) technique with respect to an outcropping, reference rock site. This study uses the Japanese KiK-net network, which has more than 600 pairs of surface-downhole stations allowing the computation of empirical borehole transfer functions, consisting of mean spectral ratios of surface over downhole recordings. The borehole transfer function deviates from the SSR in two respects: the reference is located at depth, and the downhole velocity varies from one site to another. These differences bias the estimation of the transfer function with reference to a standard outcrop rock site. The goal of this paper is to develop a simple and robust methodology to correct for such bias. The proposed correction procedure consists of two steps: a depth correction designed to account, in a simplified and physically acceptable way, for the existence at depth of destructive interferences and the absence of free-surface effects in the high-frequency range; and an impedance correction designed to normalize the shear wave velocity at depth. The depth correction involves a simple, frequency-dependent curve to be adapted for each site as a function of the first destructive interference frequency at depth. The impedance normalization combines the use of “generic” rock velocity profiles and a quarter-wavelength approach, resulting in a smooth frequency-dependent amplitude correction. The proposed methodology is applied on a large subset of KiK-net data in view of analysing the correlation between site amplification factors and site parameters in a companion paper.     

Observations and Large-Eddy Simulations of Entrainment in the Sheared Sahelian Boundary Layer

At the top of the planetary boundary layer, the entrainment of air, which incorporates dry and warm air from the free troposphere into the boundary layer, is a key process for exchanges with the free troposphere since it controls the growth of the boundary layer. Here, we focus on the semi-arid boundary layer where the entrainment process is analyzed using aircraft observations collected during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis experiment and large-eddy simulations. The role of the entrainment is specifically enhanced in this region where very large gradients at the planetary boundary-layer top can be found due to the presence of the moist, cold monsoon flow on which the dry, warm Harmattan flow is superimposed. A first large-eddy simulation is designed based on aircraft observations of 5 June 2006 during the transition period between dry conditions and the active monsoon phase. The simulation reproduces the boundary-layer development and dynamics observed on this day. From this specific case, sensitivity tests are carried out to cover a range of conditions observed during seven other flights made in the same transition period in order to describe the entrainment processes in detail. The combination of large-eddy simulations and observations allows us to test the parametrization of entrainment in a mixed-layer model with zero-order and first-order approximations for the entrainment zone. The latter representation of the entrainment zone gives a better fit with the conditions encountered in the Sahelian boundary layer during the transition period because large entrainment thicknesses are observed. The sensitivity study also provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution of shear stress and scalar jumps at the top of the boundary layer in the entrainment process, and to test a relevant parametrization published in the recent literature for a mixed-layer model.     

Two-phase, partially miscible flow and transport modeling in porous media; application to gas migration in a nuclear waste repository

We derive a compositional compressible two-phase, liquid and gas, flow model for numerical simulations of hydrogen migration in deep geological repository for radioactive waste. This model includes capillary effects and the gas high diffusivity. Moreover, it is written in variables (total hydrogen mass density and liquid pressure) chosen in order to be consistent with gas appearance or disappearance. We discuss the well possedness of this model and give some computational evidences of its adequacy to simulate gas generation in a water-saturated repository.     

Surface studies of water isotopes in Antarctica for quantitative interpretation of deep ice core data

Polar ice cores are unique climate archives. Indeed, most of them have a continuous stratigraphy and present high temporal resolution of many climate variables in a single archive. While water isotopic records (δD or δ¹⁸O) in ice cores are often taken as references for past atmospheric temperature variations, their relationship to temperature is associated with a large uncertainty. Several reasons are invoked to explain the limitation of such an approach; in particular, post-deposition effects are important in East Antarctica because of the low accumulation rates. The strong influence of post-deposition processes highlights the need for surface polar research programs in addition to deep drilling programs. We present here new results on water isotopes from several recent surface programs, mostly over East Antarctica. Together with previously published data, the new data presented in this study have several implications for the climatic reconstructions based on ice core isotopic data: (1) The spatial relationship between surface mean temperature and mean snow isotopic composition over the first meters in depth can be explained quite straightforwardly using simple isotopic models tuned to d-excess vs. δ¹⁸O evolution in transects on the East Antarctic sector. The observed spatial slopes are significantly higher (～ 0.7–0.8‰·°C^?1 for δ¹⁸O vs. temperature) than seasonal slopes inferred from precipitation data at Vostok and Dome C (0.35 to 0.46‰·°C^?1). We explain these differences by changes in condensation versus surface temperature between summer and winter in the central East Antarctic plateau, where the inversion layer vanishes in summer. (2) Post-deposition effects linked to exchanges between the snow surface and the atmospheric water vapor lead to an evolution of δ¹⁸O in the surface snow, even in the absence of any precipitation event. This evolution preserves the positive correlation between the δ¹⁸O of snow and surface temperature, but is associated with a much slower δ¹⁸O-vs-temperature slope than the slope observed in the seasonal precipitation. (3) Post-deposition effects clearly limit the archiving of high-resolution (seasonal) climatic variability in the polar snow, but we suggest that sites with an accumulation rate of the order of 40 kg.m^?2.yr^?1 may record a seasonal cycle at shallow depths.