肃南5.7级地震过程剪切波分裂特征

剪切波分裂应用于地震预报中的３个主要困难是：（１）如何自动定量识别剪切波快慢波到时；（２）用以认识其基本特征的震例太少；（３）因各次地震的复杂性，对所给剪切波分裂结果难以给出恰当的解释，本文研究了１９８８年１１月２２日甘肃肃南５．７级地震过程剪切波分裂的特征。所用资料为１９８８年８月到１９９０年８月中法合作张掖数字台网的记录。通过对张掖～肃南地区地壳结构模型的研究，确认了所用各次地震的真实出射角基     

ENSO cycle in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and its negative feedback mechanism

Summary A coupled ocean-atmosphere anomaly model has been developed for simulating ENSO cycle and its mechanism-study in this paper. After a long model run, the coupled model is successful in demonstrating ENSO-like irregular interannual variability and corresponding horizontal spatial structures. Based on the simulated results, the dynamics and the thermodynamics of the model ENSO cycle have been investigated, and in particular the negative feedback mechanisms that act to oppose instability of air-sea interaction, inducing termination of warm and cold events, have been examined. A detailed analysis of the oceanic wave dynamical properties and heat budget of the SST changes in a representative cycle suggest that the negative feedback mechanism to check the unstable growth of a warm event obviously differs from that of a cold event. The mechanism that induces decay and termination of a cold event is closely related to the negative, delayed feedback effect produced by the oceanic dynamical wave reflection at the western boundary. However, independent of the wave reflection effect, the negative feedback mechanism by which the coupled system returns from a warm event is associated with a slowly eastward-propagating coupling mode. Accompanied with the strong unstable development of the equatorial positive SST anomaly, the anomalous upwelling of cold water generated off the equator and the nonlinear anomalous meridional advection generated in the equator west of instability area jointly restrain the instability and finally plunge the system from a mature warm phase into a weak cold phase. A comparison between the results from the present model and the previous works is also discussed in this paper.With 16 Figures     

Numerical integration of a linear barotropic model using three methods of treating meteorological and gravitational modes separately

Summary The analytical solution of a linear barotropic model is derived, including details of the quasi-geostrophic initialization procedure. The prognostic equations are integrated using three different methods of treating the meteorological and gravitational modes separately. These are a semi-Eulerian, semi-implicit (EI) technique, a semi-Lagrangian, semi-implicit (LI) procedure, and a split-explicit (SE) method. The stability criteria and phase speeds are derived for each of the three techniques.The following theoretical conclusions are derived. Of course, in actual numerical integrations particularly those using more complex models, the results are not so unequivocal.The stability of the EI procedure is governed by the CFL criterion for the meteorological mode. Gravity waves have no effect on the timestep but move more slowly than the analytical waves. The LI method is unconditionally stable with respect to both meteorological and gravitational modes. There is thus no timestep restriction. However, the gravity waves have the same reduced phase speed as in the EI technique. The SE procedure has CFL timestep criteria for both the meteorological and gravitational calculations. However, its gravity wave phase speeds are relatively accurate. Moreover, it is the only one of the three methods that handles the nearly-compensating pressure gradient and Coriolis forces together. From the point of computational efficiency, the LI technique is probably the best.     

Numerical simulation of tropical cyclones by an axisymmetric nonhydrostatic model

Summary As an approach to study the mesoscale processes within a typhoon, an axisymmetric nonhydrostatic numerical model is developed without the use of convective parameterization. Many simulated characteristics are consistent with radar and aircraft observations, such as the maximum of vertical and tangential wind, the inflow concentrated near the surface, the outward slope of the eyewall updraft, etc. The model duplicates not only the outward propagation of mesoscale convective systems, but also the inward movement of convective rings, the rate of which coincides with the observation. Besides, the model gives good simulations of the life cycle of convective rings, and indicates that the convective rings far from the eyewall play important roles in the fluctuation of typhoon intensity. Numerical results also exhibit the existence of coupling between outer and inner core structure.Analyses of the simulations show that convective momentum transport generates local maximum absolute angular momentum in the middle and upper troposphere. The momentum anomaly results in symmetric instability, which provides the environment to form convective rings. While the momentum anomaly moves outward with the outflow in the middle and upper troposphere, it initiates a series of convective rings with aid of other direct factors, which explains the outward propagation of convective systems.The simulations exhibit the life cycle of a typical convective ring in terms of three stages, or the developing, mature and dissipating stage. Analysis shows that the symmetric instability and the convective instability promote each other, and their cooperation makes the life of convective rings longer.With 8 Figures     

Structure and evolution of the backstop in the eastern Nankai Trough area (Japan): Implications for the soon-to-come Tokai earthquake

Abstract We present data showing that the intra-oceanic shortening now occurring south of the eastern Nankai Trough that has produced the Zenisu Ridge has also been responsible for the formation of a previous ridge now buried below the continental margin. This ridge, that we refer to as Paleo-Zenisu, is presently adjacent to the backstop and its location coincides with the outer limit of the seismogenic decollement. The subduction of the paleo-Zenisu ridge below the wedge has led to its complete reorganization and has given its identity to the Great Tokai earthquake rupture zone. The formation of paleo-Zenisu and its consequent subduction has induced the tilting of the backstop toward the northwest since ca 2 Ma. This model suggests that the backstop and possibly the wedge are dextrally sheared because they are extruded southwestward in relation to the collision of the Izu-Bonin Ridge with Japan. We use the finite motion from Zenisu to paleo-Zenisu to derive both the subduction vectors along the Nankai Trough and the shortening vectors within Zenisu-Izu. The amount of shortening absorbed within Zenisu-Izu increases toward the northeast. The corresponding subduction vectors of the Zenisu platelet below the wedge decrease accordingly to the northeast from 50 to less than 20 mm/year and the Zenisu body rotates clockwise with a pole near 36° North, 139° East. This might explain the apparent longer repetition time of great earthquakes in the Tokai area. On the other hand, the 25-35 mm/year obtained for the rate of shortening along the Zenisu thrust indicates a high seismic potential there.     

Tectonic control of fan size: the importance of spatially variable subsidence rates

We study the geophysical controls on the size of alluvial fans. Simple relationships between catchment characteristics, sediment yield, subsidence patterns and fan size are developed. As predicting fan size is essentially a conservation of mass problem, our analysis is general, applying to all types of fan landform. The importance of spatially variable subsidence rates has gone largely unrecognized in previous studies of modern fans. Here we stress that the distribution of subsidence rates in the depositional basin is a primary control on relative fan size. Both free coefficients in the oft-cited power-law correlation of fan area and catchment area can be shown to be set primarily by the tectonic setting, taken to include source area uplift rate and the subsidence distribution in the depositional basin. In the case of a steady-state landscape, relative fan size is shown to be independent of both climate and source lithology; only during times of significant departure from steady state can relative fan size be expected to vary with either climate or source lithology. Transients associated with (1) a sudden increase in rock uplift rate, (2) a sudden change in climate and (3) the unroofing of strata with greatly differing erodibilities may produce variation of relative fan areas with both climate and source lithology. Variation of relative fan size with climate or lithology, however, requires that catchment–fan system response to perturbations away from steady state is sensitive to climate and lithology. Neither the strength of transient system responses nor their sensitivity to climate or lithology are known at present. Furthermore, internal feedbacks can significantly dampen any climatic or lithological effect. Thus theoretical considerations of the importance of climatic and lithological variables are inconclusive, but suggest that climatic and lithological effects are probably of secondary importance to tectonic effects. Field data from an unsteady landscape in Owens Valley, California, support and illustrate theoretical predictions regarding tectonic control of fan size. Field data from Owens Valley allow, but do not prove, a secondary dependence on source lithology. In addition, the Owens Valley field data indicate no relationship between relative fan size and climate. Headward catchment growth and enhanced sediment bypassing of fans during times of increased sediment yield (glacial) are put forward as plausible explanations.     

A posteriori local error estimation and adaptive time-stepping for newmark integration in dynamic analysis

A simple a posteriori local error estimate for Newmark time integration schemes in dynamic analysis is presented, based on the concept of a so called ‘post-processing’ technique. In conjunction with the error estimate, an adaptive time-stepping algorithm is described, which adjusts the time step size so that the local error of each time step is within a prescribed error tolerance. Numerical examples given in the paper indicate that the error estimate is asymptotically convergent, computationally efficient and convenient, and the adaptive time-stepping scheme can predict a nearly optimal step size from time to time, thus making the numerical solution reliable in an efficient manner.     

Dynamic interaction analysis of a circular cylindrical shell of finite length in a half-space

A study on the transient response of a circular cylindrical shell of finite length embedded in a homogeneous, isotropic and linear elastic half-space is presented. The soil-structure system is subjected to suddenly applied explosion waves. The numerical method employed is a combination of the time domain semi-analytical boundary element method used for the semi-infinite soil medium and the finite strip method used for the circular cylindrical shell. The two methods are combined through equilibrium and compatibility conditions at the soil-structure interface. The dynamic responses at the interface between the soil medium and the structure for every time step are obtained. Numerical examples are presented in detail to demonstrate the use and versatility of the proposed method. The following parameters are found to affect the response: (1) the slenderness ratio of the length over the diameter of the shell, L/D; (2) the relative wall thickness, h/a; (3) the relative stiffness ratio between the shell and the medium, E_s/E_m; and (4) the incidence angle of the explosion wave, α.     

Lateral migration,thermoluminescence chronology and colour variation of longitudinal dunes near Birdsville in the Simpson Desert,central Australia

The longitudinal dunes of the Simpson Desert, in the vicinity of Birdsville, have been reworked largely during the Holocene from dunes deposited up to 80000 years ago or earlier. The widespread asymmetry of these roughly northward-trending dunes, with steeper eastern faces and more gentle western faces, supports wind-rose data showing sand-transporting winds from the southwest obliquely intersecting the dunes. While this suggests a change in the wind pattern since the dune field was oriented, it does not indicate that the dunes are necessarily shifting leeward (eastward) as a consequence. It is hypothesized that the direction of migration is controlled by the extent to which the dunes are vegetated. Relatively well-vegetated dunes can accrete sand on their gentle stoss slopes and erode on their lee slopes causing them to shift westward and hence obliquely into the wind, a condition that probably prevails in wetter regions and during episodes of relatively humid climate. In contrast, in very dry areas or during arid phases, sand can move unimpeded up a sparsely vegetated stoss face and over the crest to form an avalanche or slip face on the lee side, thereby causing the dunes to shift eastward. Despite evidence that longitudinal dune crests can shift laterally to some extent, the dunes in the western part of the Simpson Desert have not migrated, either westward or eastward, more than 100m or so from their Pleistocene cores. Aeolian transport and partial or complete removal of iron cutans from around quartz grains results in dunes of widely varying colour yet of similar age.     

Comparison between analytical and mineralometric methods in regional scheelite exploration

The scheelite dispersion was studied in a drainage system over an area of 150 km² with stratabound mineralization of scheelite in a Pre-Ordovician volcano-sedimentary Series in the Hercynian Iberian Massif (Zamora province, NW Spain). A density of two samples per square kilometer (approximately 500 m sample spacing along streams), a sample volume of 10 l and sieving at 5 mm ensure that an anomaly source is detected. It was found that the dispersion of scheelite is typically less than 1 km. The methods applied to panned concentrates (mineralometric scheelite study, with or without multifractional grain size basis, and X-ray fluorescence tungsten analysis) give similar anomaly patterns and are efficient in exploration for scheelite mineralization.