Consumption tradeoff vs. catastrophes avoidance: implications of some recent results in happiness studies on the economics of climate change

Recent discussion of climate change focuses on the trade-off between present and future consumption and hence correctly emphasizes the discount rate. Stern (2007) favours immediate and strong actions of environmental protection, but this has been questioned as the discount rate used is much lower than the market or commonly used rates. Focussed only on consumption trade-off, the use of these higher discount rates completely reverses the need for strong actions. However, an even more important problem has been largely neglected. This is the avoidance of catastrophes that may threaten the extinction of the human species. But ??we lack a usable economic framework for dealing with these kinds of ... extreme disasters?? (Weitzman, J Econ Lit 45(3):703?C724, 2007, p. 723). To analyse this, the comparison of marginal utility with total utility is needed. As happiness studies suggest a low ratio of marginal to total utility and as scientific and technological advances (especially in brain stimulation and genetic engineering) may dramatically increase future welfare, immediate and actions stronger than proposed by Stern may be justified despite high discount rates on future consumption, as discount rates on future utility/welfare should be much lower.     

Behavioral response of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) to vessel traffic

A series of land-based surveys were conducted at two vantage points of known dolphin abundance in Hong Kong. The purpose of this study was to determine the behavioral response of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) to vessel traffic. Results indicated that dolphins dove for a longer duration in areas of heavy vessel traffic or when there was the presence of an oncoming vessel. Dependent upon the type of vessel and the relative distance, dolphins might flee, continue their ongoing activity, perform a new activity, or approach the vessel. Whilst slow-moving vessels appeared not to cause immediate stress on the dolphin community, fast-moving vessels often cause disruption of behavior and social life. In order to ensure a better environment for the animals, we suggest that proactive conservation measures such as the creation of a marine park, rules and regulations for dolphin watching activities, and regional control of vessel speed should be implemented.     

Mass transport in a two-layer wave boundary layer

The transport of a chemical species under the pure action of surface progressive waves in the benthic boundary layer which is loaded with dense suspended sediments is studied theoretically. The flow structure of the boundary layer is approximated by that of a two-layer Stokes boundary layer with a sharp interface between clear water and a heavy fluid. The simplest model of constant eddy diffusivities is adopted and the exchange of matter with the bed is ignored. For a thin layer of heavy fluid, whose thickness is comparable to the surface wave amplitude and the Stokes boundary layer thickness, effective transport equations are deduced using an averaging technique based on the method of homogenization. The effective advection velocity is found to be equal to the depth-averaged mass transport velocity, while the dispersion coefficient can be shown to be positive definite. Explicit expressions for the transport coefficients are obtained as functions of fluid properties and flow kinematics. Physical discussions on their relations are also presented.     

大型现场室内两用直剪仪研制(II):试验测试

利用新近研制的大型现场室内两用直剪仪,对两种不同性质的砂样进行了剪切试验。在对干砂的直接剪切试验特性进行综述的基础上,从多方面对该大型直剪仪得出的干砂剪切试验数据进行了分析验证,结果表明该大型直剪仪得出的试验数据一致性好、可靠性较高,说明该大型直剪仪的基本剪切性能稳定,可进一步应用于相关岩土材料的试验研究。     

A modified analytical solution of soil stress distribution for XCC pile foundations

X-section cast-in-place concrete pile (XCC pile) is a new type of pile foundation, which has an X-shaped cross section. Compared to the traditional circular pile of the same cross-sectional area, the bearing capacity of an XCC pile is higher due to increased cross-sectional perimeter. Since Geddes solution is based on St. Venant’s principle, leading to the results independent of the cross-sectional geometry and size, large differences are induced when estimating the soil stress distribution for XCC pile foundations. This paper derives a modified analytical solution, which is dependent on the cross-sectional geometry of XCC pile, from Geddes solution. Validation of this modified solution was conducted through three-dimensional numerical analysis and proven more suitable for XCC pile foundations. Parametric study on three geometrical parameters is conducted using this modified solution. The results indicate that the stress in founding soil due to skin friction decreases with increasing pile radius and central angle of concave, but increases with increasing length of flat side. The stress due to end-bearing decreases with increasing pile radius and length of flat side, but increases with increasing central angle of concave. From the parametric studies, the recommended dimensions of XCC pile radius, length of flat side, and central angle of concave are recommended ranges from 200 to 600 mm, 30 to 60 mm, and 90° to 150°, respectively.     

Rainfall-induced landslides in Hulu Kelang area, Malaysia

Hulu Kelang is known as one of the most landslide-prone areas in Malaysia. The area has been constantly hit by landslide hazards since 1990s. This paper provides an insight into the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslide in the Hulu Kelang area. Rainfall patterns prior to the occurrences of five selected case studies were first analyzed. The results showed that daily rainfall information is insufficient for predicting landslides in the area. Rainfalls of longer durations, i.e., 3–30 days prior to the landslides should be incorporated into the prediction model. Numerical simulations on a selected case study demonstrated that both matric suction and factor of safety decreased steadily over time until they reached the lowest values on the day of landslide occurrence. Redistribution of infiltrated rainwater in the soil mass could be a reason for the slow response of failure mechanism to rainfall. Based on 21 rainfall-induced landslides that had occurred in the area, three rainfall thresholds were developed as attempts to predict the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslide. The rainfall intensity–duration threshold developed based on the local rainfall conditions provided a reasonably good prediction to the landslide occurrence. The cumulative 3- versus 30-day antecedent precipitation index threshold chart was capable of giving the most reliable prediction with the limiting threshold line for major landslide yielded a reliability of 97.6 %.     

Distribution of relict permafrost features in the Pannonian Basin,Hungary

Wedge structures and involutions suggest that Late Pleistocene frozen ground, either permafrost or deep seasonal frost, extended at least as far south as latitude 47°N in central Europe (the Pannonian Basin). Optically stimulated luminescence dating of the sand infill from a number of wedges indicates that emplacement of the sand infill occurred during the Late Pleistocene (22.2–15.7 ka). This suggests that during this time the mean annual air temperature was depressed by at least ～15°C relative to the present. Either continuous or discontinuous permafrost was probably present in the north and NW of the Pannonian Basin. The subsequent thaw of frozen ground is indicated by the widespread occurrence of deformed sediments. The presence of soil (ground) wedges suggests conditions of deep seasonal frost probably existed during the period when climate ameliorated following the Last Permafrost Maximum (LPM).     

Monitoring of ground deformation in Liulin district,China using InSAR approaches

Coalbed methane (CBM) exploration generally refers to a technique that extracts natural gas from coal beds. The development of CBM in Liulin, China, has experienced a significantly growth period during the past two decades. Previous research mainly focused on the coal geological background or CBM technique itself, while time series InSAR (TS-InSAR) technique was conducted in this work to study the potential land deformation induced by CBM extraction from 2003 to 2011. In total, 21 ALOS-1 PALSAR images (acquired from 22 December 2006 to 2 January 2011) and 14 ENVISAT ASAR scenes (captured between 29 October 2003 and 7 November 2007) were used. The TS-InSAR outcome revealed that the annual deformation rates were ranging from 15 to ?40?mm?yr^?1 over the study region. Then the time series deformation evolutions were analysed over 8 CBM sites (No. 4 coal seam) out of 20, and the subsidence rates between 1.9 and ?6.5?mm?yr^?1 were derived. In addition, the average subsidence rate and standard deviation among these eight measurements were ?3.0 and 2.6?mm?yr^?1 respectively, suggesting that these CBM extraction sites were quite stable and no obvious subsidence had been observed during this eight-year period.     

香港国家地质公园粮船湾组火山岩岩石学研究

在香港国家地质公园西贡火山岩园区,核心地质景观是白垩纪粮船湾组(Kkh)火山岩优美的六方形石柱(柱状节理),它们的岩石类型长期存在熔岩和火山碎屑岩之争。笔者等经野外调查和薄片岩石学研究,确认粮船湾组火山岩实属一种特殊的熔岩——流纹质碎斑熔岩,以普遍的柱状节理、斑晶具有碎斑结构和珠边结构、基质发育霏细结构和流动构造为特征;它们不仅代表了香港地区中生代最晚期火山喷发的产物,而且构成了西贡破火山机构的中央侵出相岩穹。推断粮船湾组火山岩石柱是地球上已知面积最大的流纹质碎斑熔岩石柱群(～150 km2),目前所见的火山岩石柱仅是长期剥蚀后的残余部分。     

Wave propagation in layered media by time domain BEM

A time domain boundary element in a cylindrical co-ordinate system is developed for the analysis of wave propagation in a layered half-space. The field quantities (displacements and tractions) are expressed as products of Fourier series in the circumferential direction and as linear polynomials in the other spatial directions. An integral equation is written for each layer as an independent domain, and these equations are then assembled into a general equation by virtue of compatibility and equilibrium conditions between the interfaces. Examples of three-dimensional wave propagation in the layered half-spaces due to various forms of surface and inner-domain excitations are reported to demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the method.