Cloud bands over southern Africa: seasonality, contribution to rainfall variability and modulation by the MJO

Tropical-extratropical cloud band systems over southern Africa, known as tropical temperate troughs (TTTs), are known to contribute substantially to South African summer rainfall. This study performs a comprehensive assessment of the seasonal cycle and rainfall contribution of TTTs by using a novel object-based strategy that explicitly tracks these systems for their full life cycle. The methodology incorporates a simple assignment of station rainfall data to each event, thereby creating a database containing detailed rainfall characteristics for each TTT. This is used to explore the importance of TTTs for rain days and climatological rainfall totals in October–March. Average contributions range from 30 to 60 % with substantial spatial heterogeneity observed. TTT rainfall contributions over the Highveld and eastern escarpment are lower than expected. A short analysis of TTT rainfall variability indicates TTTs provide substantial, but not dominant, intraseasonal and interannual variability in station rainfall totals. TTTs are however responsible for a high proportion of heavy rainfall days. Of 52 extreme rainfall events in the 1979–1999 period, 30 are associated with these tropical-extratropical interactions. Cut-off lows were included in the evolution of 6 of these TTTs. The study concludes with an analysis of the question: does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence the intensity of TTT rainfall over South Africa? Results suggest a weak but significant suppression (enhancement) of intensity during phase 1(6).     

Can the EU emission trading scheme support CDM forestry?

Abstract

The European Commission is mandated to consider the inclusion of credits from land-use projects under the clean development mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation (JI), beginning with the second period of the European Union's emission trading scheme (ETS) in its report due in July 2006. Temporary credits from afforestation and reforestation under the CDM are seen by many as posing a technical problem for their use under the ETS. This article summarizes three feasible, efficient and environmentally sound alternatives for achieving the integration of such temporary credits in the European emissions trading market starting in 2008. The first proposal integrates tCERs and lCERs (temporary credits) into the EU ETS by allowing for their direct use for compliance purposes. The second proposal builds on the idea of swapping temporary credits for EU allowances (EUAs) by Member States. The third proposal would not require a political decision at the EU level. Instead supportive Member States or private carbon fund operators would agree to swap temporary credits for the CERs or ERUs they hold in their accounts. All three solutions would be linked to a risk-mitigation strategy based on levying a fee or fixing an exchange rate, which would allow governments to hedge the risk of losing temporary credits.     

Precious and base metal geochemistry and mineralogy of the Grasvally Norite–Pyroxenite–Anorthosite (GNPA) member,northern Bushveld Complex,South Africa: implications for a multistage emplacement

The Grasvally Norite–Pyroxenite–Anorthosite (GNPA) member within the northern limb of the Bushveld Complex is a mineralized, layered package of mafic cumulates developed to the south of the town of Mokopane, at a similar stratigraphic position to the Platreef. The concentration of platinum-group elements (PGE) in base metal sulfides (BMS) has been determined by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry. These data, coupled with whole-rock PGE concentrations and a detailed account of the platinum-group mineralogy (PGM), provide an insight into the distribution of PGE and chalcophile elements within the GNPA member, during both primary magmatic and secondary hydrothermal alteration processes. Within the most unaltered sulfides (containing pyrrhotite, pentlandite, and chalcopyrite only), the majority of IPGE, Rh, and some Pd occur in solid solution within pyrrhotite and pentlandite, with an associated Pt–As and Pd–Bi–Te dominated PGM assemblage. These observations in conjunction with the presence of good correlations between all bulk PGE and base metals throughout the GNPA member indicate the presence and subsequent fractionation of a single PGE-rich sulfide liquid, which has not been significantly altered. In places, the primary sulfides have been replaced to varying degrees by a low-temperature assemblage of pyrite, millerite, and chalcopyrite. These sulfides are associated with a PGM assemblage characterized by the presence of Pd antimonides and Pd arsenides, which are indicative of hydrothermal assemblages. The presence of appreciable quantities of IPGE, Pd and Rh within pyrite, and, to a lesser, extent millerite suggests these phases directly inherited PGE contents from the pyrrhotite and pentlandite that they replaced. The replacement of both the sulfides and PGM occurred in situ, thus preserving the originally strong spatial association between PGM and BMS, but altering the mineralogy. Precious metal geochemistry indicates that fluid redistribution of PGE is minimal with only Pd, Au, and Cu being partially remobilized and decoupled from BMS. This is also indicated by the lower concentrations of Pd evident in both pyrite and millerite compared with the pentlandite being replaced. The observations that the GNPA member was mineralized prior to intrusion of the Main Zone and that there was no local footwall control over the development of sulfide mineralization are inconsistent with genetic models involving the in situ development of a sulfide liquid through either depletion of an overlying magma column or in situ contamination of crustal S. We therefore believe that our observations are more compatible with a multistage emplacement model, where preformed PGE-rich sulfides were emplaced into the GNPA member. Such a model explains the development and distribution of a single sulfide liquid throughout the entire 400–800 m thick succession. It is therefore envisaged that the GNPA member formed in a similar manner to its nearest analogue the Platreef. Notable differences however in PGE tenors indicate that the ore-forming process may have differed slightly within the staging chambers that supplied the Platreef and GNPA member.     

Exchange of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Between a Shallow Lagoon and Coastal Waters

West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow lagoon on Cape Cod, has experienced a threefold increase in nitrogen load since the mid- to late 1990s due to input from a groundwater plume contaminated by a municipal wastewater treatment plant. We measured the exchange of nitrogen and phosphorus between the harbor and the coastal waters of Buzzards Bay over several years when the harbor was experiencing this elevated nitrogen load. During summer months, the harbor not only retained the entire watershed nitrogen load but also had a net import of nitrogen from Buzzards Bay. During the spring and fall, the harbor had a net export of nitrogen to Buzzards Bay. We did not measure the export in winter, but assuming the winter net export was less than 112 % of the load, the harbor exported less than half of the watershed nitrogen load on an annual basis. For phosphorus, the harbor had a net import from coastal waters in the spring and summer months and a net export in the fall. Despite the large increase in nitrogen load to the harbor, the summertime import of phosphorus from Buzzards Bay was sufficient to maintain nitrogen limitation of primary productivity during the summer. Our findings illustrate that shallow systems dominated by benthic producers have the potential to retain large terrestrial nitrogen loads when there is sufficient supply of phosphorus from exchange with coastal waters.     

Mapping subvertical discontinuities in rock cuts using a 400-MHz ground penetrating radar antenna

Hidden subvertical discontinuities oriented parallel to subparallel to the exposed faces of outcropping sandstone were effectively mapped at three different study sites in central Missouri using a ground-penetrating radar system (GPR) equipped with a 400-MHz monostatic antenna and a survey wheel. At each site, a suite of 2-D ground-penetrating radar profiles were acquired along multiple closely spaced traverses on relatively smooth exposed rock surfaces. Time-zero correction was applied to the raw GPR data which were then processed using band-pass filtering, range and display gain, color transformation, and deconvolution techniques. Pseudo 3D images of each identified discontinuity at each site were constructed based on the interpretation of the nonmigrated ground-penetrating radar profiles. These pseudo 3D images were hand-migrated and transformed into true 3D images which depict variable depths at “perpendicular horizontal distance” to each discontinuity relative to the exposed rock face. The results demonstrate that GPR can be used to detect and map hidden discontinuities. This information can then be used for rock slope stability analysis and rock engineering purposes.     

Parametrization of peatland hydraulic properties for the Canadian land surface scheme

Abstract

A hydraulic parametrization is developed for peatland environments in the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS). Three ‐wetland soil classes account for the typical variation in the hydraulic characteristics of the uppermost 0.5 m of organic soils. Review of the literature reveals that saturated hydraulic conductivity varies from a median of 1.0 × 10^?7m/s in deeply humified sapric peat to 2.8 × 10^?4 m/s in relatively undecomposed fibric peat. Average pore volume fraction ranges from 0.83 to 0.93. Parameters have been designed for the soil moisture characteristic curves for fibric, hemic and sapric peat using the Campbell (1974) equation employed in CLASS, and the van Genuchten (1980) formulation. There is little difference in modelled soil moisture between the two formulations within the range of conditions normally found in peatlands. Validation of modelled water table depth and peat temperature is performed for a fen in northern Québec and a bog in north‐central Minnesota. The new parametrization results in a more realistic simulation of these variables in peatlands than the previous version of CLASS, in which unrealistic mineral soil “equivalents “ were used for wetland soil climate modelling.     

Failure to achieve stringent carbon reduction targets in a second-best policy world

Legislation to decarbonise energy systems within overall greenhouse gas reduction targets represents an immense and unprecedented energy policy challenge. However there is a dichotomy between this level of policy ambition and prior modelling studies that find such targets economically, technologically and socially feasible under idealised ?Dfirst-best policies. This paper makes a significant contribution to current analytical efforts to account for realistic ?Dsecond-best climate mitigation policy implementation. This is achieved via a technical classification of secondbest common mode issues at a detailed national level: both internal (behavioural change, infrastructure implementation) and external (new technologies, resource availability). Under a combinatory second-best scenario, meeting targets greater than a 70% reduction in CO₂ by 2050 entail costs above a subjective barrier of 1% of GDP, while extreme mitigation scenarios (>90% CO₂ reduction) are infeasible. These high costs are equally due to disappointing progress in behavioural and technological mitigation efforts. Expensive second-best mitigation scenarios can still rely on extreme assumptions including the full deployment of the UK??s offshore wind resource or the complete diffusion of energy efficiency measures in end-use sectors. By demonstrating the fragilities of a low carbon energy system pathway, policy makers can explore protective and proactive strategies to ensure targets can actually be met. Additionally, systematic analysis of failure in stringent long term decarbonisation scenarios teaches energy analysts about the trade-offs in model efficacy vs. confidence.     

Climate change impacts and adaptation of commercial marine fisheries in Australia: a review of the science

Commercial marine fishing contributes significantly to the Australian economy, and has great importance for coastal communities. However, climate change presents significant challenges for Australia’s fishing industries, now and into the future. With greater use of targeted information, the fishing industry will be better placed to minimise the negative impacts and take advantage of opportunities associated with the effects of climate change. The future of the fishing industry—specifically wild capture fisheries—will depend on its ability and capacity to apply appropriate adaptation strategies for its viability and sustainability in the long-term. Knowledge regarding expected long-term changes in species distributions, improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts and their influence on target species, and better understanding of species tolerances, can inform adaptation responses. This paper provides a review of recent advances in research addressing Australia’s priorities in relation to commercial marine fisheries’ responses to current and anticipated future climate change impacts, and considers barriers and adaptation options for fisheries management over the near-term planning horizon of 5–7 years.     

Suspended sediment fluxes in a tidal wetland: Measurement, controlling factors, and error analysis

Suspended sediment fluxes to and from tidal wetlands are of increasing concern because of habitat restoration efforts, wetland sustainability as sea level rises, and potential contaminant accumulation. We measured water and sediment fluxes through two channels on Browns Island, at the landward end of San Francisco Bay, United States, to determine the factors that control sediment fluxes on and off the island. In situ instrumentation was deployed between October 10 and November 13, 2003. Acoustic Doppler current profilers and the index velocity method were employed to calculate water fluxes. Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) were determined with optical sensors and cross-sectional water sampling. All procedures were analyzed for their contribution to total error in the flux measurement. The inability to close the water balance and determination of constituent concentration were identified as the main sources of error; total error was 27% for net sediment flux. The water budget for the island was computed, with an unaccounted input of 0.20 m³s⁻¹ (22% of mean inflow), after considering channel flow, change in water storage, evapotranspiration, and precipitation. The net imbalance may be a combination of groundwater seepage, overland flow, and flow through minor channels. Change of island water storage, caused by local variations in water surface elevation, dominated the tidally averaged water flux. These variations were mainly caused by wind and barometric pressure change, which alter regional water levels throughout the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. Peak instantaneous ebb flow was 35% greater than peak flood flow, indicating an ebbdominant system, though dominance varied with the spring-neap cycle. SSC were controlled by wind-wave resuspension adjacent to the island and local tidal currents that mobilized sediment from the channel bed. During neap tides sediment was imported onto the island but during spring tides sediment was exported because the main channel became ebb dominant. Over the 34-d monitoring period 14,000 kg of suspended sediment were imported through the two channels. The water imbalance may affect the sediment balance if the unmeasured water transport pathways are capable of transporting large amounts of sediment. We estimate a maximum of 2,800 kg of sediment may have been exported through unmeasured pathways, giving a minimum ent import of 11,200 kg. Sediment flux measurements provide insight on tidal to fortnightly marsh sedimentation processes, especially in complex systems where sedimentation is spatially and temporally variable.