A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.     

Measuring the benefits and costs of community education and outreach in marine protected areas

Conservation organizations often invest considerable resources in education and outreach activities in and around marine protected areas (MPAs). The expectation is that such efforts will change local knowledge, attitudes and ultimately behavior. This is one of the first studies to assess the efficacy of using education and outreach activities to improve community knowledge and attitudes about an MPA. Random sample surveys in 2005 and 2010 (n=1213) before and after education and outreach activities are compared. Program budgets for the same period give the investment levels. With an investment level averaging US$24 per capita/year, the result was an average increase of 33% in “yes” responses across 15 indicators of knowledge and attitudes towards marine conservation. The increase in knowledge and positive attitudes was associated with a large decrease in “not sure” responses, suggesting that community members with fewer initial preconceptions are the most effective target for education and outreach activities. This study demonstrates that investments in MPA education and outreach can generate increases in local knowledge and positive attitudes, and changing knowledge and attitudes is expected to contribute to the long-term compliance with MPA regulations.     

Equatorial Pacific gravity lineaments: interpretations with basement topography along seismic reflection lines

The central equatorial Pacific is interesting for studying clues to upper mantle processes, as the region lacks complicating effects of continental remnants or major volcanic plateaus. In particular, the most recently produced maps of the free-air gravity field from satellite altimetry show in greater detail the previously reported lineaments west of the East Pacific Rise (EPR) that are aligned with plate motion over the mantle and originally suggested to have formed from mantle convection rolls. In contrast, the gravity field 600 km or farther west of the EPR reveals lineaments with varied orientations. Some are also parallel with plate motion over the mantle but others are sub-parallel with fracture zones or have other orientations. This region is covered by pelagic sediments reaching ~?500–600 m thickness so bathymetry is not so useful for seeking evidence for plate deformation across the lineaments. We instead use depth to basement from three seismic reflection cruises. In some segments of these seismic data crossing the lineaments, we find that the co-variation between gravity and basement depth is roughly compatible with typical densities of basement rocks (basalt, gabbro or mantle), as expected for some explanations for the lineaments (e.g., mantle convection rolls, viscous asthenospheric inter-fingering or extensional deformation). However, some other lineaments are associated with major changes in basement depth with only subtle changes in the gravity field, suggesting topography that is locally supported by varied crustal thickness. Overall, the multiple gravity lineament orientations suggest that they have multiple origins. In particular, we propose that a further asthenospheric inter-fingering instability mechanism could occur from pressure variations in the asthenosphere arising from regional topography and such a mechanism may explain some obliquely oriented gravity lineaments that have no other obvious origin.     

London MIST 2004

The annual one-day meeting of the MIST (Magnetosphere, Ionosphere and Solar–Terrestrial) community was held in November 2004 at Burlington House, with contributions on data and ideas ranging from Cassini to Cluster, with stops at many experiments in between.     

The origin of the 28- to 29-day recurrent patterns of the solar magnetic field

Numerical simulations of the Sun's mean line-of-sight magnetic field suggest an origin for the 28-to 29-day recurrent patterns of the field and its associated interplanetary phenomena. The patterns are caused by longitudinal fluctuations in the eruption of new magnetic flux, the transport of this flux to mid latitudes by supergranular diffusion and meridional flow, and the slow rotation of the resulting flux distributions at the 28- to 29-day periods characteristic of those latitudes.E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research.Laboratory for Computational Physics.     

Mapping of Ozone and Water in the Atmosphere of Mars near the 1997 Aphelion

We present absolute abundances and latitudinal variations of ozone and water in the atmosphere of Mars during its late northern spring (L_s=67.3°) shortly before aphelion. Long-slit maps of the a¹Δ_g state of molecular oxygen (O₂) and HDO, an isotopic form of water, were acquired on UT January 21.6 1997 using a high-resolution infrared spectrometer (CSHELL) at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility. O₂(a¹Δ_g) is produced by ozone photolysis, and the ensuing dayglow emission at 1.27 μm is used as a tracer for ozone. Retrieved vertical column densities for ozone above ∼20 km ranged between 1.5 and 2.8 μm-atm at mid- to low latitudes (30°S-60°N) and decreased outside that region. A significant decrease in ozone density is seen near 30°N (close to the subsolar latitude of 23.5°N). The rotational temperatures retrieved from O₂(a-X) emissions show a mean of 172±2.5 K, confirming that the sensed ozone lies in the middle atmosphere (∼24 km). The ν₁ fundamental band of HDO near 3.67 μm was used as a proxy for H₂O. The retrieved vertical column abundance of water varies from 3 precipitable microns (pr-μm) at ∼30°S to 24 pr-μm at ∼60°N. We compare these results with current photochemical models and with measurements obtained by other methods.     

The timing and nature of recession of outlet glaciers of Hielo Patagónico Norte, Chile, from their Neoglacial IV (Little Ice Age) maximum positions

The dates of recession of eleven outlet glaciers of the Hielo Patagónico Norte (Northern Patagonian Icefield) from their recent maximum positions have been inferred from dendrochronology, lichenometry, radiocarbon dating and historical sources. We have refined the dating for part of the Little Ice Age period in this area placing a glacial advance to between AD 1650 and 1766 with the latter date favoured as conformable with historical records and an uncalibrated radiocarbon determination. Glacier recession from maximal positions began in the early 1860s–1870s. Recession was largely synchronous on the western and eastern sides of the Icefield. This synchronicity suggests that climate forcing over-rides second-order controls on glacier behaviour such as the nature of the terminal environment (e.g. calving/non-calving) or differences in glacier drainage basin area. We argue that this icefield-wide glacier recession represents a response to post-Little Ice Age warming, and provides further evidence for the global extent and near synchronous termination of the Little Ice Age.     

Small-scale auroral arc distortions

Small-scale spatially periodic distortions of auroral forms have been studied utilizing low-light level television observations made at various locations in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The most commonly observed features were folds and vortex-like curl formations. The curls, identified here with the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability due to fluid shear, invariably had a counterclockwise rotational shape and motion when viewed in a direction anti-parallel to the Earth's magnetic field. The typical measured wavelength (5 km) and measured growth rate (4.2 sec⁻¹) were used to evaluate the Kelvin-Helmholtz dispersion relation for the apparent shear ω_s = ∂ ν_x/ ∂y (28 sec⁻¹). The apparent horizontal velocities of both folds (0–5 km/sec) and curls (0–22 km/sec) were invariably observed to be counterclockwise with respect to the multiple arc centre when viewed antiparallel to B. Consistent agreement between rotational shape and rotational motion suggests that the apparent growth rate and the apparent horizontal velocities closely approximate the actual values. If the shear results from E×B drifts in a space charge field, the calculated value for ω_s, implies an unneutralized electron density 0–1 cm⁻³ and a ΔE across the arc element 500mV/m. The velocity measurements indicate that the ΔE values for individual elements can combine to produce transient electric fields at the edges of multiple arcs as high as 1000 mV/m.     

A Single Packer Method for Characterizing Water Contributing Fractures in Crystalline Bedrock Wells

Water levels and water quality of open borehole wells in fractured bedrock are flow-weighted averages that are a function of the hydraulic heads and transmissivities of water contributing fractures, properties that are rarely known. Without such knowledge using water levels and water quality data from fractured bedrock wells to assess groundwater flow and contaminant conditions can be highly misleading. This study demonstrates a cost-effective single packer method to determine the hydraulic heads and transmissivities of water contributing fracture zones in crystalline bedrock wells. The method entails inflating a pipe plug to isolate sections of an open borehole at different depths and monitoring changes in the water level with time. At each depth, the change in water level with time was used to determine the sum of fracture transmissivities above the packer and then to solve for individual fracture transmissivity. Steady-state wellbore heads along with the transmissivities were used to determine individual fracture heads using the weighted average head equation. The method was tested in five wells in crystalline bedrock located at the University of Connecticut in Storrs. The single packer head and transmissivity results were found to agree closely with those determined using conventional logging methods and the dissolved oxygen alteration method. The method appears to be a simple and cost-effective alternative in obtaining important information on flow conditions in fractured crystalline bedrock wells.