Regional regression models for hydro‐climate change impact assessment

Hydro‐climatic impacts in water resources systems are typically assessed by forcing a hydrologic model with outputs from general circulation models (GCMs) or regional climate models. The challenges of this approach include maintaining a consistent energy budget between climate and hydrologic models and also properly calibrating and verifying the hydrologic models. Subjective choices of loss, flow routing, snowmelt and evapotranspiration computation methods also increase watershed modelling uncertainty and thus complicate impact assessment. An alternative approach, particularly appealing for ungauged basins or locations where record lengths are short, is to predict selected streamflow quantiles directly from meteorological variable output from climate models using regional regression models that also include physical basin characteristics. In this study, regional regression models are developed for the western Great Lakes states using ordinary least squares and weighted least squares techniques applied to selected Great Lakes watersheds. Model inputs include readily available downscaled GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. The model results provide insights to potential model weaknesses, including comparatively low runoff predictions from continuous simulation models that estimate potential evapotranspiration using temperature proxy information and comparatively high runoff projections from regression models that do not include temperature as an explanatory variable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Human-ecosystem interactions in relation to Holocene environmental change in Port Joli Harbour,southwestern Nova Scotia,Canada

A high-resolution pollen record from Path Lake in Port Joli Harbour, Nova Scotia, Canada, provides a paleo-ecological perspective on Holocene climate and vegetation variability within the context of local archaeological research. Pollen assemblages in the early Holocene reflect a post-glacial forest dominated by Pinus, Tsuga, Betula and Quercus. During this time, a lower frequency of radiocarbon dated cultural material suggests lower human settlement intensity. Shallow water aquatic (Isoetes) and wetland (Alnus, Sphagnum) taxa increased after 3400 cal yr BP in response to a transition towards wetter climatic conditions. Culturally significant periods, where settlement intensity increased in the Maritimes and Maine, coincide with maximum values of reconstructed total annual precipitation, suggesting that environmental conditions may have influenced prehistoric human activity. European settlement, after 350 cal yr BP, was marked by a rise in Ambrosia. The impact of anthropogenic fire disturbances on the landscape was evidenced by peak charcoal accumulations after European settlement.     

Rare-earths in size fractions and sedimentary rocks of Pennsylvanian-Permian age from the mid-continent of the U.S.A.

The REE (rare-earth) contents of sixty-three <2 μ fractions of Pennsylvanian and Permian platform sediment from the mid-continent of the U.S.A. vary considerably (ΣREE = 46–439 ppm;La/ Lu = 5.2–15.7; correlation coefficient of REE with La/Lu = 0.89), but the Eu/Sm ratios are nearly constant even in reducing environments that concentrate U (0.16–0.22). There is no correlation of REE content to clay mineralogy.Lower Permian <2 μ fractions from continental to nearshore marine sediment in Oklahoma have higher REE content (244–261 ppm) than marine facies in Kansas (46–140ppm), but <2μ Upper Permian fractions in an evaporite basin have constant but high REE content (288–281 ppm; one = 153—ppm). All Pennsylvanian <2 μ fractions from Oklahoma have high REE content (209–439 ppm), and fractions from Kansas cyclothems have variable REE content (86–438 ppm). REE content in the <2 μ fractions is inherited from the provenance, but is modified by ion exchange during weathering, transportation, or deposition. Exchangable REE tend to be concentrated in clay minerals in basic environments, but removed in acid environments.Sand and gravel-size fractions consist mostly of quartz or chert so their REE content is low (7.9–40.6 ppm) although heavy minerals may contribute a large fraction of the REE content. Unexpectedly, silt-size fractions have REE contents (74–355 ppm) that are usually lower but similar to their <2 μ fractions, and the REE contents do not correlate to clay mineral/quartz ratios. The interpretation of REE content in sedimentary rocks needs to be done cautiously due to the above factors.     

Fluoride-Selective Electrode as a Tool to Evaluate the Degradation of PFAS in Groundwater: A Bench-Scale Investigation

Fluoride (F⁻) concentration in groundwater can be used as an independent measure of the degradation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) at contaminated sites. This study assessed the impact of the groundwater matrix, oxidizing reagents, quenching agent, and sample handling procedures (filtration) on determinations of F⁻. F⁻ was quantified using a fluoride-selective electrode (FSE) using matrix spike recovery (acceptable range 75 to 125%) and electrode slope performance (ideal range −54 to −60 mV). For the unaltered aqueous matrices considered (ultrapure water, ultrapure water with sodium chloride, and simulated groundwater), matrix spike recoveries were greater than 93% and acceptable electrode slopes (−59.5 ± 0.2 mV) were obtained. Matrix spike recoveries and electrode slopes when persulfate or permanganate was added were 87 and 93%, and −58.4 ± 1.3 and −47.3 ± 2.2 mV, respectively. Therefore, quantifying F⁻ in matrices containing permanganate should involve use of either a matrix-matched calibration curve or the method of standard additions due to the low electrode slope. The addition of ascorbic acid as a quenching agent resulted in a decrease in matrix spike recoveries to <74% and suggests alternate quenching procedures should be used if an FSE is employed to measure F⁻. Removal of sediments by filtration prior to the addition of the fluoride spike led to improved matrix spike recoveries (>96%), which were otherwise underestimated using the FSE in the presence of sediments. While the FSE may be a quick and portable tool, its significant limitations need to be fully understood before it can be used to quantify the production of F⁻ resulting from the potential degradation of PFAS at field sites.     

Sediment‐rich meltwater plumes and ice‐proximal fans at the margins of modern and ancient tidewater glaciers: Observations and modelling

Turbid meltwater plumes and ice‐proximal fans occur where subglacial streams reach the grounded marine margins of modern and ancient tidewater glaciers. However, the spacing and temporal stability of these subglacial channels is poorly understood. This has significant implications for understanding the geometry and distribution of Quaternary and ancient ice‐proximal fans that can form important aquifers and hydrocarbon reservoirs. Remote‐sensing and numerical‐modelling techniques are applied to the 200 km long marine margin of a Svalbard ice cap, Austfonna, to quantify turbid meltwater‐plume distribution and predict its temporal stability. Results are combined with observations from geophysical data close to the modern ice front to refine existing depositional models for ice‐proximal fans. Plumes are spaced ca 3 km apart and their distribution along the ice front is stable over decades. Numerical modelling also predicts the drainage pattern and meltwater discharge beneath the ice cap; modelled water‐routing patterns are in reasonable agreement with satellite‐mapped plume locations. However, glacial retreat of several kilometres over the past 40 years has limited build‐up of significant ice‐proximal fans. A single fan and moraine ridge is noted from marine‐geophysical surveys. Closer to the ice front there are smaller recessional moraines and polygonal sediment lobes but no identifiable fans. Schematic models of ice‐proximal deposits represent varying glacier‐terminus stability: (i) stable terminus where meltwater sedimentation produces an ice‐proximal fan; (ii) quasi‐stable terminus, where glacier readvance pushes or thrusts up ice‐proximal deposits into a morainal bank; and (iii) retreating terminus, with short still‐stands, allowing only small sediment lobes to build up at melt‐stream portals. These modern investigations are complemented with outcrop and subsurface observations and numerical modelling of an ancient, Ordovician glacial system. Thick turbidite successions and large fans in the Late Ordovician suggest either high‐magnitude events or sustained high discharge, consistent with a relatively mild palaeo‐glacial setting for the former North African ice sheet.     

Radiation mechanisms and geometry of Cygnus X-1 in the soft state

We present X-ray/ γ -ray spectra of Cyg X-1 observed during the transition from the hard to the soft state and in the soft state by ASCA , RXTE and CGRO /OSSE in 1996 May and June. The spectra consist of a dominant soft component below ∼2 keV and a power-law-like continuum extending to at least ∼800 keV. We interpret them as emission from an optically thick, cold accretion disc and from an optically thin, non-thermal corona above the disc. A fraction f ≳0.5 of total available power is dissipated in the corona.
We model the soft component by multicolour blackbody disc emission taking into account the torque-free inner-boundary condition. If the disc extends down to the minimum stable orbit, the ASCA RXTE data yield the most probable black hole mass of M _X≈10 M_⊙ and an accretion rate,     , locating Cyg X-1 in the soft state in the upper part of the stable, gas-pressure-dominated, accretion-disc solution branch.
The spectrum of the corona is well modelled by repeated Compton scattering of seed photons from the disc off electrons with a hybrid, thermal/non-thermal distribution. The electron distribution can be characterized by a Maxwellian with an equilibrium temperature of kT _e∼30–50 keV, a Thomson optical depth of τ ∼0.3 and a quasi-power-law tail. The compactness of the corona is 2≲ℓ_h≲7, and a presence of a significant population of electron–positron pairs is ruled out.
We find strong signatures of Compton reflection from a cold and ionized medium, presumably an accretion disc, with an apparent reflector solid angle, Ω/2π∼0.5–0.7. The reflected continuum is accompanied by a broad iron K α line.     

Biota: sediment partitioning of aluminium smelter related PAHs and pulp mill related diterpenes by intertidal clams at Kitimat, British Columbia

The question of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) bioavailability and its relationship to specific PAH sources with different PAH binding characteristics is an important one, because bioavailability drives PAH accumulation in biota and ultimately the biochemical responses to the PAH contaminants. The industrial harbour at Kitimat (British Columbia, Canada) provides an ideal location to study the bioavailability and bioaccumulation of sediment hydrocarbons to low trophic level biota. Samples of soft shell clams (Mya arenaria) and intertidal sediment collected from multiple sites over six years at various distances from an aluminium smelter and a pulp and paper mill were analysed for 106 PAHs, plant diterpenes and other aromatic fraction hydrocarbons. Interpretation using PAH source ratios and multivariate data analysis reveals six principal hydrocarbon sources: PAHs in coke, pitch and emissions from anode combustion from the aluminium smelter, vascular plant terpenes and aromatised terpenes from the pulp and paper mill, petroleum PAHs from shipping and other anthropogenic activities and PAHs from natural plant detritus. Harbour sediments predominantly contain either pitch or pyrogenic PAHs from the smelter, while clams predominantly contain plant derived PAHs and diterpenes from the adjacent pulp mill. PAHs from the smelter have low bioavailability to clams (Biota-Sediment Accumulation Factors; BSAFs <1 for pitch and coke; <10 for anode combustion, decreasing to ∼0.1 for the mass 300 and 302 PAHs), possibly due to binding to pitch or soot carbon matrices. Decreases in PAH isomer ratios between sediments and clams likely reflect a combination of variation in uptake kinetics of petroleum PAHs and compound specific metabolism, with the importance of petroleum PAHs decreasing with increasing molecular weight. Plant derived compounds exhibit little natural bioaccumulation at reference sites, but unsaturated and aromatised diterpenes released from resins by industrial pulping processes are readily accumulated by the clams (BSAFs >500). Thus while most of the smelter associated PAHs in sediments may not be bioavailable to benthic organisms, the plant terpenes (including retene, totarol, ferruginol, manool, dehydroabietane and other plant terpenes that form the chemical defence mechanism of conifers) released by pulp mills are bioavailable and possess demonstrated toxic properties. The large scale release of plant terpenes by some of the many pulp mills located in British Columbia and elsewhere represents a largely undocumented risk to aquatic biota.     

Environmental changes in an alpine lake (Gossenköllesee, austria) over the last two centuries – the influence of air temperature on biological parameters

Changes in microfossils (diatoms, chrysophytes, chironomids and cladocera remains), geochemistry and deposition of atmospheric pollutants have been investigated in the sediment records of the alpine lake Gossenköllesee (Tyrol, Austria) spanning the last two centuries. The sediment records were compared with seasonal and annual air temperature trends calculated for the elevation (2417 m a.s.l.) and the geographical position (47° 1346N, 11° 0051E) of the lake, and with precipitation records available since 1866 from Innsbruck. Temperature trends followed a 20–30 year oscillation between cold and warm periods. Regarding long-term changes, temperature trends showed a U-shaped trend between 1780 and 1950, followed by a steep increase since 1975.Physical, geochemical, and organic parameters were not controlled by air temperature. Among the biological records only diatoms and chrysophytes reacted to air temperature changes: the relative abundance of planktonic diatoms increased during warm periods and changes in mean annual alpine air temperature explained 36.5% of their variation. The relation between abundance of seasonal stomatocyst types and air temperature varied on two different time scales: while summer stomatocysts were influenced by short term temperature fluctuations, the autumn stomatocysts were affected only by the long term changes. Other biological parameters exhibited a constant species composition (chironomids, pigments) or changes were small and independent of temperature (cladocera). Spheroidal carbonaceous fly-ash particles, and trends in Pb and Cr indicated increasing deposition of atmospheric pollutants but had no detectable effects on the biological parameters either. In respect to temperature variations over the last 200 years, this alpine lake is much less sensitive than expected and has thus to be regarded as a well buffered site. However, temperature alone is not sufficient to understand changes in species composition and other biogeochemical processes with unknown historical patterns might have affected species composition more strongly.