Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model

A simplified climate model is presented which includes a fully 3-D, frictional geostrophic (FG) ocean component but retains an integration efficiency considerably greater than extant climate models with 3-D, primitive-equation ocean representations (20 kyears of integration can be completed in about a day on a PC). The model also includes an Energy and Moisture Balance atmosphere and a dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice model. Using a semi-random ensemble of 1,000 simulations, we address both the inverse problem of parameter estimation, and the direct problem of quantifying the uncertainty due to mixing and transport parameters. Our results represent a first attempt at tuning a 3-D climate model by a strictly defined procedure, which nevertheless considers the whole of the appropriate parameter space. Model estimates of meridional overturning and Atlantic heat transport are well reproduced, while errors are reduced only moderately by a doubling of resolution. Model parameters are only weakly constrained by data, while strong correlations between mean error and parameter values are mostly found to be an artefact of single-parameter studies, not indicative of global model behaviour. Single-parameter sensitivity studies can therefore be misleading. Given a single, illustrative scenario of CO₂ increase and fixing the polynomial coefficients governing the extremely simple radiation parameterisation, the spread of model predictions for global mean warming due solely to the transport parameters is around one degree after 100 years forcing, although in a typical 4,000-year ensemble-member simulation, the peak rate of warming in the deep Pacific occurs 400 years after the onset of the forcing. The corresponding uncertainty in Atlantic overturning after 100 years is around 5 Sv, with a small, but non-negligible, probability of a collapse in the long term.     

Early Himalayan exhumation: Isotopic constraints from the Indian foreland basin

Nd- and Sr-isotopic compositions of Palaeogene foreland basin sediments are used to provide insights into early Himalayan evolution, particularly the timing of exposure of high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr units, erosion of which may have caused the late Tertiary increase in oceanic Sr-isotopic ratios. During the late Palaeocene–early Eocene, erosion was from mixed sources including suture zone rocks. Exhumation of the High Himalaya was occurring by the time of deposition of alluvial sediments after mid-Oligocene times and this source has dominated Himalayan sediments from at least this time until the present day. The transition is interpreted to reflect exhumation of 'basement rocks' of the Indian plate, when the High Himalaya became a sufficient topographic barrier to separate suture zone rocks from the foreland basin. The marked rise in seawater ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr from 40 Ma is consistent with the erosion of a Himalayan source with a high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio.     

The structure and development of foredunes on a locally prograding coast: insights from ground-penetrating radar surveys, Norfolk, UK

The internal structure of coastal foredunes from three sites along the north Norfolk coast has been investigated using ground‐penetrating radar (GPR), which provides a unique insight into the internal structure of these dunes that cannot be achieved by any other non‐destructive or geophysical technique. Combining geomorphological and geophysical investigations into the structure and morphology of these coastal foredunes has enabled a more accurate determination of their development and evolution. The radar profiles show the internal structures, which include foreslope accretion, trough cut and fill, roll‐over and beach deposits. Foredune ridges contain large sets of low‐angle cross‐stratification from dune foreslope accretion with trough‐shaped structures from cut and fill on the crest and rearslope. Foreslope accretion indicates sand supply from the beach to the foreslope, while troughs on the dune crest and rearslope are attributed to reworking by offshore winds. Bounding surfaces between dunes are clearly resolved and reveal the relative chronology of dune emplacement. Radar sequence boundaries within dunes have been traced below the water‐table passing into beach erosion surfaces. These are believed to result from storm activity, which erodes the upper beach and dunes. In one example, at Brancaster, a dune scarp and erosion surface may be correlated with erosion in the 1950s, possibly the 1953 storm. Results suggest that dune ridge development is intimately linked to changes in the shoreline, with dune development associated with coastal progradation while dunes are eroded during storms and, where beaches are eroding, a stable coast provides more time for dune development, resulting in higher foredune ridges. A model for coastal dune evolution is presented, which illustrates stages of dune development in response to beach evolution and sand supply. In contrast to many other coastal dune fields where the prevailing wind is onshore, on the north Norfolk coast, the prevailing wind is directed along the coast and offshore, which reduces the landward migration of sand dunes.     

Distance and discourse in the local labour market: the case of Singapore

Summary In this paper we use the example of Singapore to make two theoretical contributions to the geographical literature on local labour markets. Firstly, we suggest that the local labour market should be conceived of as an extended 'network space' that is constituted by extra-local linkages and flows as well as local interactions. The importance of certain kinds of foreign 'workers' and 'talent' in Singapore can be used to illustrate this argument. Secondly, we contend that locally constructed discourses can actively shape labour market dynamics, exemplified here by the rise of 'knowledge-based economy' rhetoric in Singapore.     

Regional regression models for hydro‐climate change impact assessment

Hydro‐climatic impacts in water resources systems are typically assessed by forcing a hydrologic model with outputs from general circulation models (GCMs) or regional climate models. The challenges of this approach include maintaining a consistent energy budget between climate and hydrologic models and also properly calibrating and verifying the hydrologic models. Subjective choices of loss, flow routing, snowmelt and evapotranspiration computation methods also increase watershed modelling uncertainty and thus complicate impact assessment. An alternative approach, particularly appealing for ungauged basins or locations where record lengths are short, is to predict selected streamflow quantiles directly from meteorological variable output from climate models using regional regression models that also include physical basin characteristics. In this study, regional regression models are developed for the western Great Lakes states using ordinary least squares and weighted least squares techniques applied to selected Great Lakes watersheds. Model inputs include readily available downscaled GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. The model results provide insights to potential model weaknesses, including comparatively low runoff predictions from continuous simulation models that estimate potential evapotranspiration using temperature proxy information and comparatively high runoff projections from regression models that do not include temperature as an explanatory variable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post‐1850 changes in Glacier Benito,North Patagonian Icefield,Chile

Glacier Benito is a temperate outlet glacier on the west side of the North Patagonian Icefield. Rates of thinning and ablation were obtained using data collected by the British Joint Services Expedition in 1972/73 and subsequent data collected in 2007 and 2011. Ice‐front recession rates were based on dendrochronological dating for the terminal moraines and aerial and satellite imagery of the ice front in 1944, 1998 and 2002. Between the first Benito survey in 1973 and 2007, the lower glacier thinned by nearly 150 m at an average rate of 4.3 m yr^?1 with the rate increasing to 6.1 m yr^?1 between 2007 and 2011, a 28.7% increase during the latter period. Increases in ice movement and ablation were negligible: ice movement for 1973 and 2007 averaged 0.45 m day^?1 and ablation averaged 0.05 m day^?1. Ice front recession along the glacier's centre line from 1886 to 2002 was approximately 1860 m. Retreat rates between 1886 and 1944 averaged 8.9 m yr^?1. Thereafter glacier asymmetry makes measurement along the glacier centre line unrepresentative of areal change until 1998 when symmetry was restored; retreat between 1944 and 1998 was 15.4 m yr^?1. From 1998 to 2002 the rate increased dramatically to 127.2 m yr^?1. Recession from the southern end of Benito's terminal moraine in the 1850s supports an early date for initial retreat of the Icefield's glaciers.