Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.     

Mean sea level trends around the English Channel over the 20th century and their wider context

This paper provides estimates of rates of change in mean sea level around the English Channel, based on an extensive new hourly sea level data set for the south coast of the UK, derived from data archaeology. Mean sea level trends are found to vary by between 0.8 and 2.3 mm/yr around the Channel. The rates of mean sea level change are calculated by removing the coherent part of the sea level variability from the time series of annual mean sea level before fitting linear trends. The improvement in accuracy gained by using this approach is assessed by comparing trends with those calculated using the more traditional method, in which linear trends are fitted directly to the original records. Removal of the coherent part of the sea level variability allows more precise trends to be calculated from records spanning 30 years. With the traditional approach 50 years is required to obtain the same level of accuracy. Rates of vertical land movement are approximated by subtracting the mean sea level trends from the most recent regional estimate of change in sea level due to oceanographic processes only. These estimated rates are compared to measurements from geological data and advanced geodetic techniques. There is good agreement around most of the UK. However, the rates estimated from the sea level records imply that the geological data suggest too much submergence along the western and central parts of the UK south coast. Lastly, the paper evaluates whether the high rates of mean sea level rise of the last decade are unusual compared to trends observed at other periods in the historical record and finds that they are not.     

Petrogenesis and tectonic setting of bimodal volcanism in the Sakoli Mobile Belt, Central Indian shield

The Sakoli Mobile Belt comprises bimodal volcanic rocks that include metabasalt, rhyolite, tuffs, and epiclastic rocks with metapelites, quartzite, arkose, conglomerate, and banded iron formation (BIF). Mafic volcanic rocks are tholeiitic to quartz‐tholeiitic with normative quartz and hypersthene. SiO₂ shows a large compositional gap between the basic and acidic volcanics, depicting their bimodal nature. Both the volcanics have distinct geochemical trends but display some similarity in terms of enriched light rare earth element–large ion lithophile element characteristics with positive anomalies for U, Pb, and Th and distinct negative anomalies for Nb, P, and Ti. These characteristics are typical of continental rift volcanism. Both the volcanic rocks show strong negative Sr and Eu anomalies indicating fractionation of plagioclases and K‐feldspars, respectively. The high Fe/Mg ratios for the basic rocks indicate their evolved nature. Whole rock Sm–Nd isochrons for the acidic volcanic rocks indicate an age of crystallization for these volcanic rocks at about 1675 ± 180 Ma (initial ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.51017 ± 0.00017, mean square weighted deviate [MSWD] = 1.6). The εNd_t (t = 2000 Ma) varies between ?0.19 and +2.22 for the basic volcanic rock and between ?2.85 and ?4.29 for the acidic volcanic rocks. Depleted mantle model ages vary from 2000 to 2275 Ma for the basic and from 2426 to 2777 Ma for the acidic volcanic rocks, respectively. These model ages indicate that protoliths for the acidic volcanic rocks probably had a much longer crustal residence time. Predominantly basaltic magma erupted during the deposition of the Dhabetekri Formation and part of it pooled at crustal or shallower subcrustal levels that probably triggered partial melting to generate the acidic magma. The influence of basic magma on the genesis of acidic magma is indicated by the higher Ni and Cr abundance at the observed silica levels of the acidic magma. A subsequent pulse of basic magma, which became crustally contaminated, erupted as minor component along with the dominantly acidic volcanics during the deposition of the Bhiwapur Formation.     

The view from out West: embeddedness, inter-personal relations and the development of an indigenous film industry in Vancouver

This paper considers the development of a particular cultural industry, the indigenous film and television production sector, in a specific locality, Vancouver (British Columbia, Canada). Vancouver’s film and television industry exhibits a high level of dependency on the location shooting of US funded productions, a relatively mobile form of foreign investment capital. As such, the development of locally developed and funded projects is crucial to the long-term sustainability of the industry. The key facilitators of growth in the indigenous sector are a small group of independent producers that are attempting to develop their own projects within a whole series of constraints apparently operating at the local, national and international levels. At the international level, they are situated within a North American cultural industry where the funding, production, distribution and exhibition of projects is dominated by US multinationals. At the national level, both government funding schemes and broadcaster purchasing patterns favour the larger production companies of central Canada. At the local level, producers have to compete with the demands of US productions for crew, locations and equipment. I frame my analysis within notions of the embeddedness or embodiment of social and economic relations, and suggest that the material realities of processes operating at the three inter-linked scales, are effectively embodied in a small group of individual producers and their inter-personal networks.     

The use of microchemical analysis of alluvial gold grains in mineral exploration: experiences in Britain and Ireland

The examination of populations of gold grains by SEM and EPMA generates a microchemical signature based upon the assemblage of opaque mineral inclusions within the gold and the concentration of minor alloying metals. Duplicate samples of alluvial gold from the same locality have yielded the same microchemical signature independent of the field worker who collected the sample, or the date of collection. A study of five separate alluvial localities yielded a microchemical signature consistent with the mineralogy of the adjacent host mineralisation. This result has permitted informed speculation on the styles and complexity of gold mineralisation contributing to the alluvial population of gold grains where the style of source mineralisation is unknown.The technique can yield information about several aspects of the source mineralisation of an alluvial population at an early stage in the exploration process. Distinctive microchemical signatures can be used to evaluate the dispersion of gold either by fluvial or glacial action. The technique can identify gold derived from separate mineralising events either within a region or along a watercourse, thereby allowing speculation on the magnitude of the source mineralisation. It is also possible to establish whether specific types of gold mineralisation of potential economic interest have contributed to an alluvial population. In areas subjected to glaciation, analysis of the microchemical signature of populations of alluvial gold may indicate whether the gold grains are of proximal or distal origin.The volume of information made available through the study of alluvial gold grains has contributed greatly to the understanding of regional gold mineralisation. Interpretation of microchemical signatures of populations of alluvial gold from about 130 localities throughout Great Britain and Ireland has facilitated characterisation of gold in terms of the style of the source mineralisation. This information has augmented that available from about ten bedrock gold localities and has permitted a more complete classification of gold occurrences throughout the region.Quantitative analysis of some minerals within the opaque inclusion assemblage can provide information on the chemistry of the mineralising fluid, which may be related to the capacity for gold transportation.In Devon, South West England, a model for the emplacement of gold mineralisation was developed from interpretation of the microchemical signature of alluvial gold grains. The selenide-rich inclusion suite containing no sulphides suggested that oxidising conditions prevailed during precipitation. The model of transport of gold in solution through the oxidising environment of Permian red beds and its subsequent precipitation in underlying rocks due to reduction in Eh was consistent with the observed distribution of gold in alluvial sediment, residential overburden and drill core. Using this model other targets for gold mineralisation were successfully predicted.     

Adaptive optics near-infrared imaging of NGC 2992 – unveiling core structures related to radio figure-of-8 loops

We present near-infrared adaptive optics, Very Large Array (VLA) radio and Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) optical imaging of the nearby Seyfert galaxy NGC 2992. Spiral structure and an extension to the west are traced down to the core region at the limiting resolution of our near-infrared images. A faint, diffuse loop of near-infrared and radio emission is also observed to the north, embedded within the prominent 2-arcsec radio loop previously observed to the north-west. Near-infrared colour maps and CO narrow-band imaging are then used to identify which regions may not be purely reddened stellar populations. Our new data provide evidence that the VLA radio-loop morphology in the shape of a figure of 8 represents two components superimposed: (1) outflow bubbles out of the plane of the disc, coincident with the extended emission-line region (EELR); (2) star formation along the spiral arm within the galaxy disc and through the dust lane. The near-infrared continuum emission associated with the outflowing radio bubbles suggests that the radio loops are driven by the active nucleus.     

Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: Scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. While social-ecological systems evolve to accommodate variability, there is growing evidence that changes in drought, storm and flood extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable populations. In many countries in Africa, these pressures are compounded by disruption to institutions and variability in livelihoods and income. The interactions of both rapid and slow onset livelihood disturbance contribute to enduring poverty and slow processes of rural livelihood renewal across a complex landscape. We explore cross-scale dynamics in coping and adaptation response, drawing on qualitative data from a case study in Mozambique. The research characterises the engagements across multiple institutional scales and the types of agents involved, providing insight into emergent conditions for adaptation to climate change in rural economies. The analysis explores local responses to climate shocks, food security and poverty reduction, through informal institutions, forms of livelihood diversification and collective land-use systems that allow reciprocity, flexibility and the ability to buffer shocks. However, the analysis shows that agricultural initiatives have helped to facilitate effective livelihood renewal, through the reorganisation of social institutions and opportunities for communication, innovation and micro-credit. Although there are challenges to mainstreaming adaptation at different scales, this research shows why it is critical to assess how policies can protect conditions for emergence of livelihood transformation.     

Climate change and human activities: a case study in Xinjiang, China

We examined both long-term climate variability and anthropogenic contributions to current climate change for Xinjiang province of northwest China. Xinjiang encompasses several mountain ranges and inter-mountain basins and is comprised of a northern semiarid region and a more arid southern region. Climate over the last three centuries was reconstructed from tree rings and temperature series were calculated for the past 50 years using weather station data. Three major conclusions from these analyses are: (1) Although temperature varied considerably in Xinjiang over the last 200 years, it was non-directional until the last 50 years when a substantial warming trend occurred; (2) The semiarid North Xinjiang was representative of the northern hemisphere climate, while the more arid South Xinjiang resembled the southern hemisphere climate, meanwhile, (3) The entire Xinjiang province captured the global-scale climate signal. We also compared human contributions to global change between North and South Xinjiang, including land cover/land use, population, and greenhouse gas production. For both regions, urban areas acted as heat islands; and large areas of grassland and forest were converted to barren land, especially in North Xinjiang. Additionally, North Xinjiang also showed larger increase in population and greenhouse gas emissions mainly associated with animal production than those in South Xinjiang. Although Xinjiang province is a geographically coupled mountain–basin system, the two regions have distinct climate patterns and anthropogenic activities related to land cover conversion and greenhouse gas production.     

The dynamics of natural pipe hydrological behaviour in blanket peat

Natural soil pipes are found in peatlands, but little is known about their hydrological role. This paper presents the most complete set of pipe discharge data to date from a deep blanket peatland in Northern England. In a 17.4‐ha catchment, we identified 24 perennially flowing and 60 ephemerally flowing pipe outlets. Eight pipe outlets along with the catchment outlet were continuously gauged over an 18‐month period. The pipes in the catchment were estimated to produce around 13.7% of annual streamflow, with individual pipes often producing large peak flows (maximum peak of 3.8 l s^?1). Almost all pipes, whether ephemerally or perennially flowing, shallow or deep (outlets > 1 m below the peat surface), showed increased discharge within a mean of 3 h after rainfall commencement and were dominated by stormflow, indicating good connectivity between the peatland surface and the pipes. However, almost all pipes had a longer period between the hydrograph peak and the return to base flow compared with the stream (mean of 23.9 h for pipes, 19.7 h for stream). As a result, the proportion of streamflow produced by the pipes at any given time increased at low flows and formed the most important component of stream discharge for the lowest 10% of flows. Thus, a small number of perennially flowing pipes became more important to the stream system under low‐flow conditions and probably received water via matrix flow during periods between storms. Given the importance of pipes to streamflow in blanket peatlands, further research is required into their wider role in influencing stream water chemistry, water temperature and fluvial carbon fluxes, as well as their role in altering local hydrochemical cycling within the peat mass itself. Enhanced piping within peatlands caused by environmental change may lead to changes in the streamflow regime with larger low flows and more prolonged drainage of the peat. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.