Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York,UK (1200–2000)

Abstract

The reassessment of flood risk at York, UK, is pertinent in light of major flooding in November 2000, and heightened concerns of a perceived increase in flooding nationally. Systematic flood level readings from 1877 and a wealth of documentary records dating back as far as 1263 AD give the City of York a long and rich history of flood records. This extended flood record provides an opportunity to reassess estimates of flood frequency over a time scale not normally possible within flood frequency analysis. This paper re-evaluates flood frequency at York, considering the strengths and weaknesses in estimates resulting from four contrasting methods of analysis and their corresponding data: (a) single-site analysis of gauged annual maxima; (b) pooled analysis of multi-site gauged annual maxima; (c) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical peaks, and (d) analysis of only the very largest peaks using a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Use of the historical information was found to yield risk estimates which were lower and considered to be more credible than those achieved using gauged records alone.

Citation Macdonald, N. & Black, A. R. (2010) Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York, UK (1200–2000). Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1152–1162.     

Distribution of diagenetic alterations within depositional facies and sequence stratigraphic framework of fluvial sandstones: Evidence from the Petrohan Terrigenous Group,Lower Triassic,NW Bulgaria

Sequence stratigraphy of fluvial deposits is a controversial topic because changes in relative sea level will eventually have indirect impact on the spatial and temporal distribution of depositional facies. Changes in the relative sea level may influence the accommodation space in fluvial plains, and hence have impact on types of fluvial system, frequency of avulsion, and style of vertical and lateral accretion. This study aims to investigate whether depositional facies and changes in the fluvial system of the Lower Triassic Petrohan Terrigenous Group sandstones (NW Bulgaria) in response to changes in the relative sea level have an impact on the spatial and temporal distribution of diagenetic alterations.     

London MIST 2004

The annual one-day meeting of the MIST (Magnetosphere, Ionosphere and Solar–Terrestrial) community was held in November 2004 at Burlington House, with contributions on data and ideas ranging from Cassini to Cluster, with stops at many experiments in between.     

Evolution of Earth's redox state during upwelling of carbon-bearing mantle

The oxygen fugacity (f(O₂)) values recorded by diamondiferous peridotite and eclogite xenoliths from Siberia indicate that the redox state of the ancient lithosphere is heterogeneous on a scale of at least four log units, mainly in the range between the wüstite-magnetite (WM) and iron-wüstite (IW) oxygen buffers. Highly reduced peridotites can be interpreted as relict from earlier lower f(O₂). The f(O₂) values recorded by ‘fertile’ and less modified spinel peridotites from Mongolia, Baikal and Tien-Shan show that the redox state of the lithosphere beneath central Asia and Tien-Shan is heterogeneous on a scale of 2–3 log units, mainly in the range between the WM and IW + 1 oxygen buffers. These data provide evidence for the presence of a lower-f(O₂) regime of carbon-bearing mantle beneath the Baikal rift zone and Tien-Shan, and the oxidation of diapirs ascending from the asthenosphere. The ‘dry’ xenoliths from Mongolia primarily reflect closed system behavior in the upper mantle, the f(O₂) of which is buffered by ferric-ferrous redox equilibrium. The observed evolution of f(O₂) values is closely linked to the distribution of volatile species in the mantle. H₂O and CO₂ are the dominant volatiles for the more depleted and oxidized part of peridotites, and CH₄ for the more reduced and less modified part. It is proposed that the upper mantle was originally more reduced and has become progressively more oxidized, resulting perhaps largely from the preferential loss of hydrogen and carbon during melting. The oxygen budget of the upper mantle results from the opposing contributions of crustal recycling and transfer of carbon-bearing material from the deep mantle.     

Deep-water carbonate concentrations in the southwest Pacific

We have compiled carbonate chemistry and sedimentary CaCO₃% data for the deep-waters (>1500 m water depth) of the southwest (SW) Pacific region. The complex topography in the SW Pacific influences the deep-water circulation and affects the carbonate ion concentration ([CO₃2−]), and the associated calcite saturation horizon (CSH, where ??_calcite=1). The Tasman Basin and the southeast (SE) New Zealand region have the deepest CSH at ∼3100 m, primarily influenced by middle and lower Circumpolar Deep Waters (m or lCPDW), while to the northeast of New Zealand the CSH is ∼2800 m, due to the corrosive influence of the old North Pacific deep waters (NPDW) on the upper CPDW (uCPDW). The carbonate compensation depth (CCD; defined by a sedimentary CaCO₃ content of <20%), also varies between the basins in the SW Pacific. The CCD is ∼4600 m to the SE New Zealand, but only ∼4000 m to the NE New Zealand. The CaCO₃ content of the sediment, however, can be influenced by a number of different factors other than dissolution; therefore, we suggest using the water chemistry to estimate the CCD. The depth difference between the CSH and CCD (??Z_CSH−CCD), however, varies considerably in this region and globally. The global ??Z_CSH−CCD appears to expand with increase in age of the deep-water, resulting from a shoaling of the CSH. In contrast the depth of the chemical lysocline (??_calcite=0.8) is less variable globally and is relatively similar, or close, to the CCD determined from the sedimentary CaCO₃%. Geochemical definitions of the CCD, however, cannot be used to determine changes in the paleo-CCD. For the given range of factors that influence the sedimentary CaCO₃%, an independent dissolution proxy, such as the foraminifera fragmentation % (>40%=foraminiferal lysocline) is required to define a depth where significant CaCO₃ dissolution has occurred back through time. The current foraminiferal lysocline for the SW Pacific region ranges from 3100-3500 m, which is predictably just slightly deeper than the CSH. This compilation of sediment and water chemistry data provides a CaCO₃ dataset for the present SW Pacific for comparison with glacial/interglacial CaCO₃ variations in deep-water sediment cores, and to monitor future changes in [CO₃2−] and dissolution of sedimentary CaCO₃ resulting from increasing anthropogenic CO₂.     

A hydropedological approach to simulate streamflow and soil water contents with SWAT+

Reflecting internal catchment hydrological processes in hydrological models is important for accurate predictions of the impact of climate and land-use change on water resources. Characterizing these processes is however difficult and expensive due to their dynamic nature and spatio-temporal variability. Hydropedology is a relatively new discipline focusing on the synergistic integration of hydrology, soil physics and pedology. Hydropedological interpretations of soils and soil distribution can be used to characterize key hydrological processes, especially in areas with no or limited hydrometric measurements. Here we applied a hydropedological approach to reflect flowpaths through detailed routing in SWAT+ for a 157 ha catchment (Weatherley) in South Africa. We compared the hydropedological approach and a standard (no routing) approach against measured streamflow (two weirs) and soil water contents (13 locations). The catchment was treated as ‘ungauged’ and the model was not calibrated against hydrometric measurements in order to determine the direct contribution of hydropedology on modelling efficiency. Streamflow was predicted well without calibration (NSE > 0.8; R² > 0.82) for both approaches at both weirs. The standard approach yielded slightly better streamflow predictions. The hydropedological approach resulted in considerable improvements in the simulation of soil water contents (R² increased from 0.40 to 0.49 and PBIAS decreased from 40% to 20%). The routing capacity of SWAT+ as employed in the hydropedological approach reduced the underestimation of wetland water regimes drastically and resulted in a more accurate representation of the dominant hydrological processes in this catchment. We concluded that hydropedology can be a valuable source of ‘soft data’ to reflect internal catchment structure and processes and, potentially, for realistic calibrations in other studies, especially those conducted in areas with limited hydrometric measurements.