Palaeoclimatic reconstruction from Lateglacial (Younger Dryas Chronozone) cirque glaciers in Snowdonia,North Wales

The cirques of Snowdonia, North Wales were last occupied by glacier ice during the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC), c. 12.9–11.7 ka. New mapping presented here indicates 38 small YDC cirque glaciers formed in Snowdonia, covering a total area of 20.74 km². Equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for these glaciers, calculated using an area–altitude balance ratio (AABR) approach, ranged from 380 to 837 m asl. A northeastwards rise in YDC ELAs across Snowdonia is consistent with southwesterly snow-bearing winds. Regional palaeoclimate reconstructions indicate that the YDC in North Wales was colder and drier than at present. Palaeotemperature and annual temperature range estimates, derived from published palaeoecological datasets, were used to reconstruct values of annual accumulation and ‘winter balance plus summer precipitation’ using a degree-day model (DDM) and non-linear regression function, respectively. The DDM acted as the best-estimate for stadial precipitation and yielded values between 2073 and 2687 mm a^?1 (lapse rate: 0.006 °C m^?1) and 1782–2470 mm a^?1 (lapse rate: 0.007 °C m^?1). Accounting for the potential input of windblown and avalanched snow onto former glacier surfaces, accumulation values dropped to between 1791 and 2616 mm a^?1 (lapse rate: 0.006 °C m^?1) and 1473–2390 mm a^?1 (lapse rate: 0.007 °C m^?1). The spatial pattern of stadial accumulation suggests a steep precipitation gradient and provides verification of the northeastwards rise in ELAs. Glaciers nearer the coast of North Wales were most responsive to fluctuations in climate during the YDC, responding to sea-ice enforced continentality during the coldest phases of the stadial and to abrupt warming at the end of the stadial.     

Invariant expressions for elastic radiation from a fault with prescribed slip

Summary New formulae are obtained for the displacement potentials and displacements due to a point source with moment tensor, and for a fault with prescribed slip. These formulae, unlike previous formulae, are invariant, i.e. they are valid in any coordinate system, not just Cartesian coordinates or orthogonal curvilinear coordinates.
Apart from their invariance, these formulae have other advantages: they are exceedingly simple; the expressions for P -motion are nearly the same as those for S -motion; and the separation of far field motion from final static displacement is automatic.     

Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

High outflow channels on Mars indicate Hesperian recharge at low latitudes and the presence of Canyon Lakes

A number of martian outflow channels were carved by discharges from large dilational fault zones. These channels were sourced by groundwater, not surface water, and when observed on high-standing plateaus they provide indicators of elevated paleo-groundwater levels. We identify three outflow channels of Hesperian age that issued from a 750-km-long fault zone extending from Candor Chasma to Ganges Chasma. Two of these channels, Allegheny Vallis and Walla Walla Vallis, have sources >2500 m above the topographic datum, too high to be explained by discharge from a global aquifer that was recharged solely in the south polar region. The indicated groundwater levels likely required regional sources of recharge at low latitudes. The floodwaters that erupted from Ophir Cavus to form Allegheny Vallis encountered two ridges that restricted the flow, forming temporary lakes. The flow probably breached or overtopped these obstructions quickly, catastrophically draining the lakes and carving several scablands. After the last obstacle had been breached, a single main channel formed that captured all subsequent flow. We performed hydrologic analyses of this intermediate phase of the flooding, prior to incision of the channel to its present depth. Using floodwater depths of 30-60 m, we calculated flow velocities of 6-15 m s⁻¹ and discharges in the range of . Locally higher flow velocities and discharges likely occurred when the transient lakes were drained. Variable erosion at the channel and scabland crossing of MOLA pass 10644 suggests that the upper 25-30 m may consist of poorly consolidated surface materials underlain by more cohesive bedrock. We infer that an ice-covered lake with a surface elevation >2500 m probably existed in eastern Candor Chasma because this canyon is intersected by the Ophir Catenae fault system from which Allegheny Vallis and Walla Walla Vallis originated. We introduce a new hydrology concept for Mars in which the groundwater system was augmented by recharge from canyon lakes that were formed when water was released by catastrophic melting of former ice sheets in Tharsis by effusions of flood basalts. This model could help to reconcile the expected presence of a thick cryosphere during the Hesperian with the abundant evidence for groundwater as a source for some of the circum-Chryse outflow channels.     

Channelled erosion through a marine dump site of dredge spoils at the mouth of the Puyallup River, Washington State, USA

Channels are relatively common on river-mouth deltas, but the process by which they arise from river sediment discharge is unclear because they can potentially be explained either by negatively buoyant (hyperpycnal) flows produced directly from the river outflow or by flows generated by repeated failure and mobilisation of sediment rapidly deposited at the delta front. Channels eroded through a dump site of dredge spoils are described here from multibeam and older sonar data collected in Commencement Bay, at the mouth of the Puyallup River. Shallow channels on the seaward upper surface of the dump site, away from any flows that could have been produced by delta front failures, suggest that at least some hyperpycnal flows were produced directly from the positively buoyant river outflow up to 200 m from the edge of the river mouth platform. The form of channel bed erosion is revealed by the longitudinal shape of the main eroded channel compared with the adjacent dump site profile. It suggests that the channel evolved by its steep front retreating, rather than by simple vertical entrenchment or diffusive-like evolution of the profile, a geometry interpreted as evidence that repeated failure of the bed occurred in response to shear stress imposed by bottom-travelling flows. Model calculations based on shear strengths back-calculated from the geometry of channel wall failures suggest that, if the main channel were eroded solely by hyperpycnal flows, their generation was remarkably efficient in order to create flows vigorous enough to cause channel bed failure. Besides the sediment concentration and discharge characteristics that have been considered to dictate the ability of rivers to produce hyperpycnal flows, it is suggested that the timing of floods with respect to the tidal cycle should also be important because extreme low tides may be needed to ensure that coarse sediment is transferred vigorously to the edge of river mouth platforms.