Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries

Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.     

Invariants in toroidal and tangentially geostrophic frozen-flux velocity fields

We derive two new types of invariant that must be obeyed by the radial magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary if the hypothesis of frozen flux is valid and the fluid motion is either toroidal or tangentially geostrophic there. These general invariants incorporate specific invariants that are already known and can, in principle, be tested using magnetic data that cover an interval of time.     

A new form of the cokriging equations

Myers developed a matrix form of the cokriging equations, but one that entails the solution of a large system of linear equations. Large systems are troublesome because of memory requirements and a general increase in the matrix condition number. We transform Myers’s system into a set of smaller systems, whose solution gives the classical kriging results, and provides simultaneously a nested set of lower dimensional cokriging results. In the course of developing the new formulation we make an interesting link to the Cauchy-Schwarz condition for the invertibility of a system, and another to a simple situation of coregionalization. In addition, we proceed from these new equations to a linear approximation to the cokriging results in the event that the crossvariograms are small, allowing one to take advantage of a recent results of Xie and others which proceeds by diagonalizing the variogram matrix function over the lag classes.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Interplanetary MIST

The London MIST meeting in November covered current research using satellites to investigate planetary environments across the solar system, including our own. Earth-bound instruments, GPS and modelling also came under discussion, as did a series of results from the Cluster mission. Neil Arnold reports.     

Morphology and distribution of fossil soils in the Permo-Pennsylvanian Wichita and Bowie Groups, north-central Texas, USA: implications for western equatorial Pangean palaeoclimate during icehouse–greenhouse transition

Analysis of stacked Permo‐Pennsylvanian palaeosols from north‐central Texas documents the influence of palaeolandscape position on pedogenesis in aggradational depositional settings. Palaeosols of the Eastern shelf of the Midland basin exhibit stratigraphic trends in the distribution of soil horizons, structure, rooting density, clay mineralogy and colour that record long‐term changes in soil‐forming conditions driven by both local processes and regional climate. Palaeosols similar to modern histosols, ultisols, vertisols, inceptisols and entisols, all bearing morphological, mineralogical and chemical characteristics consistent with a tropical, humid climate, represent the Late Pennsylvanian suite of palaeosol orders. Palaeosols similar to modern alfisols, vertisols, inceptisols, aridisols and entisols preserve characteristics indicative of a drier and seasonal tropical climate throughout the Lower Permian strata. The changes in palaeosol morphology are interpreted as being a result of an overall climatic trend from relatively humid and tropical, moist conditions characterized by high rainfall in the Late Pennsylvanian to progressively drier, semi‐arid to arid tropical climate characterized by seasonal rainfall in Early Permian time. Based on known Late Palaeozoic palaeogeography and current hypotheses for atmospheric circulation over western equatorial Pangea, the Pennsylvanian palaeosols in this study may be recording a climate that is the result of an orographic control over regional‐scale atmospheric circulation. The trend towards a drier climate interpreted from the Permian palaeosols may be recording the breakdown of this pre‐existing orographic effect and the onset of a monsoonal atmospheric circulation system over this region.     

Exploring the attractions of city centre living: evidence and policy implications in British cities

The British city centre has been the focus of dynamic housing development and repopulation strategies as a key dimension of the government's urban renaissance programme. Through large scale interview surveys in the provincial city centres of Bristol and Swansea, this paper explores the positive and negative features of city centre living, and how these vary amongst a range of social and physical characteristics. The findings suggest that the practical and mundane attractions of city centre living are more important than the more widely publicised lifestyle and cultural attractions of the city centre commonly emphasised in the gentrification literature. Moreover, the research points to differences in attitudes between age groups, with younger adults placing greater value on the range of social and cultural activities in the city centre, whilst older people express high levels of satisfaction with the attractiveness of the environment. A number of policy implications emerge to encourage inclusive marketing strategies within the continued urban renaissance, particularly to challenge the negative perceptions and promote the varied attractions of city centre living to a mix of social groups.