Forecasting off-road trafficability

Forecasting off-road trafficability represents an interesting problem in the earth science field, since variables ranging from solar insolation to soil shear strength are involved. However, existing trafficability models do not include precipitation-soil moisture deterministic submodels. Instead, they frequently commence with soil moisture and invoke empirical relationships to predict trafficability. This investigation couples a deterministic soil moisture submodel to a principal empirical soil moisture-trafficability model. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact cloud cover, as well as other variables, can have on the trafficability of three soil types, and the complexity of the post-storm trafficability response.     

Contraction and convergence: an assessment of the CCOptions model

Well before President Putin ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the debate had begun as to the appropriate form of any post-Kyoto agreement. Amongst the emission reduction regimes being considered is that of Contraction and Convergence; conceived by Global Commons Institute (GCI) as a practical interpretation of the philosophy that “every adult on the planet has an equal right to emit greenhouse gases”. To support the Contraction and Convergence regime, the GCI have developed a computer model, CCOptions, to correlate CO₂ stabilisation levels with global, regional and national carbon reduction targets. This paper analyses the model, concluding that, whilst the aim of CCOptions is laudable, the application of the model in its current form is unnecessarily ambitious and as a consequence potentially misleading to all but the well-informed user.     

The morphology and hydrology of small spring-dominated channels

Small, low order channels located in wet meadows along the Mogollon Rim of northern Arizona that receive the bulk of their flow from spring discharge exhibit a morphology that differs markedly from channels that receive the bulk of their flow from runoff. These small, spring-dominated channels generally have dense vegetation cover, vertical (or near vertical) banks with flat channel beds that are armored with clasts up to 60 mm. Clasts armoring the spring-dominated channels become mobile at 45 to 85% of the bankfull depth. The lack of fine-grained material in the bed of the spring-dominated channels reflects the small drainage size, lack of fine grain input from the spring, and winnowing affect of the consistent discharge. Minor amounts of large woody debris were present in some of the spring-dominated channels, however, unlike previous studies it does not appear to play a role in the spring-dominated channel morphology. Sinuosity values for spring-dominated channels averaged 1.19, while the average sinuosity values for the runoff-dominated channels, 1.08, were significantly lower. Measured width-to-depth ratios averaged 2.4 in the spring-dominated channels, much lower than the average ratio of 11.6 found for the runoff-dominated channels. The standard deviation of width-to-depth ratios was higher for runoff-dominated channels, reflecting a more variable channel profile. A third channel type, here referred to as hybrid channels, receive significant flow from both springs and runoff. These channels have characteristics that fall between spring-dominated and runoff-dominated channels.Elevation, gradient, organic matter content, and sediment grain size distribution of the wet meadows in which the channels are formed do not exhibit significant differences between channel types, suggesting that these factors are not responsible for the observed differences in channel morphologies. The major differences in controls on the channel morphology found between the spring-dominated and runoff-dominated channels are the discharge regime and the sediment input. The hydrology unique to the spring-dominated channels and the lack of fine-grained sediment input combine to create the observed differences.     

World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology at the NOAA Paleoclimatology Program,Boulder, CO

Conclusion The World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, located in the NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, is committed to providing the scientific community with easy access to all paleoenvironmental data. Efforts to make archived data readily available include international coordination of data acquisition, management, and distribution, sponsoring workshops and data cooperatives to facilitate the compilation of important data sets, development of a browse and visualization software package (PaleoVu), and dispersal of archived data on magnetic media or over ANONYMOUS FTP/INTERNET. The program publishes a semi-annual newsletter that highlights latest developments and accomplishments in the area of paleoenvironmental data for global change research. Contributions to the newsletter are welcome from researchers describing their efforts to coordinate the free flow of paleoclimate data throughout the international scientific community.For information on the program or to be added to the mailing list contact Mrs Mildred England (phone: 303-497-6227; Fax: 303 497-6513; e-mail: MKE@mail.ngdc.noaa.gov), NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, Paleoclimatology Program/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, 325 Broadway, E/GC Boulder, CO 80303 USA     

A whole-basin, mass-balance approach to paleolimnology

Lake sediments record the flux of materials (nutrients, pollutants, particulates) through a lake system both qualitatively, as changes in the composition of geochemical and biological tracers, as well as quantitatively, through changes in their rate of burial. Burial rates provide a direct link to contemporary (neo-) limnological studies as well as management efforts aimed at load reductions, but are difficult to reconstruct accurately from single cores owing to the spatial and temporal variability of sediment deposition in most lakes. The accurate determination of whole-lake burial rates from analysis of multiple cores, though requiring more effort per lake, can help resolve such problems and improve our understanding of sediment heterogeneity at multiple scales. Partial solutions to these problems also include focusing corrections based on ²¹⁰Pb flux, co-evaluation of concentration profiles, trend analysis using multiple lakes, and trend replication based on a small number of cores from the same lake. Recent multi-core studies demonstrate that no single core site faithfully records the whole-lake time-resolved input of materials, but that as few as five well-placed cores can provide a reliable record of whole-lake sediment flux for morphometrically simple basins. Lake-wide sediment fluxes can be coupled with reconstructed outflow losses to calculate historical changes in watershed and atmospheric loading of nutrients, metals, and other constituents. The ability of paleolimnology to accurately assess the sedimentary flux and extend the period of reference into the distant past represents an important contribution to the understanding of biogeochemical processes and their response to human and natural disturbance.     

The relative influences of climate and catchment processes on Holocene lake development in glaciated regions

Following deglaciation, the long-term pattern of change in diatom communities and the inferred history of the aquatic environment are affected by a hierarchy of environmental controls. These include direct climate impacts on a lake’s thermal and hydrologic budgets, as well as the indirect affects of climate on catchment processes, such as weathering, soil development, microbial activity, fire, and vegetation composition and productivity, which affect the transfer of solutes and particulates from the terrestrial ecosystem into the lake. Some of these catchment influences on lacustrine systems operate as time-dependent patterns of primary succession that are set in motion by glacier retreat. This paper provides a conceptual model of some dominant pathways of catchment influence on long-term lake development in glaciated regions and uses a series of paleolimnological examples from arctic, boreal, and temperate regions to evaluate the relative role of direct climate influences and of catchment processes in affecting the trajectory of aquatic ecosystems during the Holocene in different environmental contexts.     

A sedimentary record of the rise and fall of the metal industry in Bergslagen,south central Sweden

Detailed stratigraphic analyses of sediments deposited in Lake Botjärnen, a small boreal forest lake in the shield terrain of central Sweden, clearly reflect progressively increasing human impact on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems following settlement and establishment of an iron industry in the 17th century. Rising frequencies of pollen and spores from light-demanding plants provide evidence of extensive forest clearance for charcoal and timber production, which peaked in the early 20th century. An associated increase in catchment erosion is reflected by changing carbon and nitrogen elemental content and carbon–isotope composition of sediment organic matter and by increased magnetic susceptibility of the sediments. Records of air-borne pollutants (lead, zinc and sulphur) can be correlated to the development of local and regional mining and metal industry as inferred from historical accounts. Rapid recession of the iron industry led to re-forestation and recovery of the aquatic nutrient status to pre-industrial conditions over the past 100 years. The chronology of the sediment succession, which is based on ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs radionuclide data in combination with radiocarbon dating, is confirmed by historical lead pollution trends established for the region.     

Paleolimnological assessment of human impacts on an urban South African lake

North End Lake is a polluted and eutrophic freshwater system located in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Since the lake is expected to be used for recreational/tourist purposes by 2010, a rehabilitation program will have to be designed. For this reason, we retrieved a sediment core from the central region of the lake to decipher the effect of historical human impacts on the water body. Pre-disturbance paleolimnological inferences indicate that the lake was likely mesotrophic. After ∼1831, when sheep farming activities were undertaken in the catchment, increases in trophic state and changes in sediment composition were observed. After ∼1937, increases in trace metal levels, organic matter, spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCP) and changes in sediment composition were recorded. The system became eutrophic as indicated by the dominance of the diatom Actinocyclus normanii, a cosmopolitan species often observed in systems where water quality has been dramatically degraded. The conditions worsened after 1986 because of the construction of a storm-water retention system, which intentionally channeled storm-water runoff into the lake. Because of this, extremely high values of fecal coliforms (i.e. 2 × 10⁶ every 100 ml) have been measured in the water column. The paleolimnological information identified the sharp increase in organic content in the uppermost section of the core, and this could be correlated to the operation of the storm-water retention system. Therefore, as an immediate management measure, we suggest that the storm-water retention system should either no longer be utilized, or the storm-water runoff should be treated before disposal into the lake. In addition, an effective sewage system has to be constructed.