Enhancing the Forecasting of Monthly Streamflow in the Main Key Stations of the River Nile Basin

Predicting the streamflow of rivers can have a significant economic impact, as this can help in agricultural water management and in providing protection from water shortages and possible flood damage. In this study, two statistical models have been used; Deseasonalized Autoregressive moving average model (DARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict monthly streamflow which important for reservoir operation policy using different time scale, monthly and 1/3 monthly (ten-days) flow data for River Nile basin at five key stations. The streamflow series is deseasonalized at different time scale and then an appropriate nonseasonal stochastic DARMA (p, q) models are built by using the plots of Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) to determine the order (p) of DARMA model. Then the deseasonalized data for key stations are used as input to ANN models with lags equals to the order (p) of DARMA model. The performance of ANN and DARMA models are compared using statistical methods. The results show that the developed model (using 1/3 monthly (ten-days) and ANN) has the best performance to predict monthly streamflow at all key stations. The results also show that the relative error in the developed model result did not exceed 9% while in the traditional models reach to 68% in the flood months in the testing period. The result also indicates that ANN has considerable potential for river flow forecasting.     

An improved upper-bound pushover procedure for seismic assessment of high-rise moment resisting steel frames

In recent years, nonlinear static procedures (NSPs) have gained considerable popularity as an efficient tool in the performance based seismic design practice. This was backed by extensive corroboration studies that have demonstrated its good accuracy in estimating the seismic response of regular structures. Despite the numerous improvements of the original versions of NSPs, their use to assess the seismic response of irregular structures and high-rise buildings is still challenging; they are not able to predict with sufficient accuracy all the complexities associated to the seismic response of this type of structures. Thus, an improved upper-bound (IUB) pushover procedure for seismic assessment of plane frames is presented in this paper, aiming to enhance the accuracy of existing methods in predicting the seismic behaviour of high-rise buildings. The novelty of this proposal is based on the adjustment of the pattern of the lateral load of the upper-bound pushover method applied to tall structures. The accuracy of the procedure is tested using nine, twelve, fifteen and twenty storeys steel buildings. The results of the (IUB) are compared to those of the capacity spectrum method, the modal pushover analysis, the upper bound pushover analysis, the modified upper bound pushover analysis and the non-linear time history analysis (NTHA). In most cases, the proposed procedure shows better results and closer to those obtained by NTHA.     

Lava penetrating water: the different behaviours of pāhoehoe and ‘a‘ā at the Nesjahraun, Tingvellir, Iceland

The Nesjahraun is a basaltic lava flow erupted from a subaerial fissure, extending NE along the Tingvellir graben from the Hengill central volcano that produced pāhoehoe lava followed by ‘a‘ā. The Nesjahraun entered Iceland’s largest lake, Tingvallavatn, along its southern shore during both phases of the eruption and exemplifies lava flowing into water in a lacustrine environment in the absence of powerful wave action. This study combines airborne light detection and ranging, sidescan sonar and Chirp seismic data with field observations to investigate the behaviour of the lava as it entered the water. Pāhoehoe sheet lava was formed during the early stages of the eruption. Along the shoreline, stacks of thin (5–20 cm thick), vesicular, flows rest upon and surround low (<5 m) piles of coarse, unconsolidated, variably oxidised spatter. Clefts within the lava run inland from the lake. These are 2–5 m wide, >2 m deep, ∼50 m long, spaced ∼50 m apart and have sub-horizontal striations on the walls. They likely represent channels or collapsed tubes along which lava was delivered into the water. A circular rootless cone, Eldborg, formed when water infiltrated a lava tube. Offshore from the pāhoehoe lavas, the gradient of the flow surface steepens, suggesting a change in flow regime and the development of a talus ramp. Later, the flow was focused into a channel of ‘a‘ā lava, ∼200–350 m wide. This split into individual flow lobes 20–50 m wide along the shore. ‘A‘ā clinker is exposed on the water’s edge, as well as glassy sand and gravel, which has been locally intruded by small (<1 m), irregularly shaped, lava bodies. The cores of the flow lobes contain coherent, but hackly fractured lava. Mounds consisting predominantly of scoria lapilli and the large paired half-cone of Grámelur were formed in phreatomagmatic explosions. The ‘a‘ā flow can be identified underwater over 1 km offshore, and the sidescan data suggest that the flow lobes remained coherent flowing down a gradient of <10°. The Nesjahraun demonstrates that, even in the absence of ocean waves, phreatomagmatic explosions are ubiquitous and that pāhoehoe flows are much more likely to break up on entering the water than ‘a‘ā flows, which, with a higher flux and shallow underlying surface gradient, can penetrate water and remain coherent over distances of at least 1 km.     

Transient deformation following the 30 January 1997 dike intrusion at Kīlauea volcano,Hawai’i

On 30 January 1997 an intrusion on Kīlauea volcano opened a new fissure within the East Rift Zone (ERZ) at Nāpau Crater, 3 km uprift from the ongoing eruptions at Pu’u ’Ō’ō. The fissure eruption lasted 22 h and opened a 5.1 km long, nearly vertical dike 1.9 m, extending from the surface to a depth of 2.4 km (Owen et al. 2000b). During the eruption, the lava pond at Pu’u ’Ō’ō drained, and eruptions ceased there. Pu’u ’Ō’ō eventually refilled in late February and eruptions resumed there on 28 March 1997. Continuous GPS data show a large transient following the 30 January 1997 dike intrusion. After lengthening 40 cm during the initial eruption, the baseline between two stations spanning the ERZ lengthened an additional 10 cm over the following 6 months. A coastal station KAEP also exhibited transient deformation, as it continued to move southward (5 cm) over the same 6-month period. The baseline between two stations spanning Kīlauea’s summit caldera contracted sharply during the eruption, but gradually recovered to slightly longer than its previous length 2 months after the intrusion. We use the extended network inversion filter (McGuire and Segall 2003) to invert continuous GPS data for volume change of a spherical pressure source under Kīlauea’s summit, opening distribution on a nearly vertical dike in the ERZ and potential slip on a decollement 9 km beneath the south flank. Following the 30 January intrusion, rift extension continued below the initial dike intrusion for the duration of the transient. Decollement slip, regardless of its assumed depth, is not required to fit the data. The modeled transient summit reinflation and rift opening patterns under Nāpau crater coincide with changes in observed behavior of Pu’u ’Ō’ō’s lava pond. Rift opening accelerated while Pu’u ’Ō’ō eruptions paused and began to decelerate after the lava pond reappeared nearly a month after the Nāpau eruption. The transient deformation is interpreted as resulting from shallow accommodation of the new dike volume.     

Digitized Database of Old Seismograms Recorder in Romania

The aim of this paper is to describe a managing system for a unique Romanian database of historical seismograms and complementary documentation (metadata) and its dissemination and analysis procedure. For this study, 5188 historical seismograms recorded between 1903 and 1957 by the Romanian seismological observatories (Bucharest-Filaret, Foc?ani, Bac?u, Vrincioaia, Câmpulung-Muscel, Ia?i) were used. In order to reconsider the historical instrumental data, the analog seismograms are converted to digital images and digital waveforms (digitization/ vectorialisation). First, we applied a careful scanning procedure of the seismograms and related material (seismic bulletins, station books, etc.). In a next step, the high resolution scanned seismograms will be processed to obtain the digital/numeric waveforms. We used a Colortrac Smartlf Cx40 scanner which provides images in TIFF or JPG format. For digitization the algorithm Teseo2 developed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Rome (Italy), within the framework of the SISMOS Project, will be used.     

Late Quaternary clay minerals off Middle Vietnam in the western South China Sea: Implications for source analysis and East Asian monsoon evolution

High-resolution clay mineral records combined with oxygen isotopic stratigraphy over the past 450 ka during late Quaternary from Core MD05-2901 off Middle Vietnam in the western South China Sea are re-ported to reconstruct a history of East Asian monsoon evolution. Variations in Illite, chlorite, and kaolinite contents indicate a strong glacial-interglacial cyclicity, while changes in smectite content present a higher frequency cyclicity. The provenance analysis indicates a mixture of individual clay minerals from various sources surrounding the South China Sea. Smectite derived mainly from the Sunda shelf and its major source area of the Indonesian islands. Illite and chlorite originated mainly from the Mekong and Red rivers. Kaolinite was provided mainly by the Pearl River. Spectral analysis of the kaolin-ite/(illite chlorite) ratio displays a strong eccentricity period of 100 ka, implying the ice sheet-forced win-ter monsoon evolution; whereas higher frequency changes in the smectite content show an ice sheet-forced obliquity period of 41 ka, and precession periods of 23 and 19 ka and a semi-precession period of 13 ka as well, implying the tropical-forced summer monsoon evolution. The winter monsoon evolution is generally in coherence with the glacial-interglacial cyclicity, with intensified winter monsoon winds during glacials and weakened winter monsoon winds during interglacials; whereas the summer monsoon evolution provides an almost linear response to the summer insolation of low latitude in the Northern Hemisphere, with strengthened summer monsoon during higher insolation and weakened summer monsoon during lower insolation. The result suggests that the high-latitude ice sheet and low-latitude tropical factor could drive the late Quaternary evolution of East Asian winter and summer monsoons, respectively, implying their diplex and self-contained forcing mechanism.     

Strong ground motion from the November 12, 2017, <Emphasis Type="Bold">M</Emphasis> 7.3 Kermanshah earthquake in western Iran

In this paper, we analyzed the strong ground motion from the November 12, 2017, Kermanshah earthquake in western Iran with moment magnitude (M) of 7.3. Nonlinear and linear amplification of ground motion amplitudes were observed at stations with soft soil condition at hypocentral distances below and above 100 km, respectively. Observation of large ground motion amplitudes dominated with long-period pulses on the strike-normal component of the velocity time series suggests a right-lateral component of movement and propagation of rupture towards southeast. Comparison of the horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the M 7.3 earthquake with global PGA values showed a similar decay in ground motion amplitudes, although it seems that PGA from the M 7.3 Kermanshah earthquake is higher than global values for NEHRP site class B. We also found that the bracketed duration (D_b) was higher in the velocity domain than in the acceleration domain for the same modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) threshold. For example, D_b reached ~?30 s at the maximum PGA while it was ~?50 s at the maximum peak ground velocity above the threshold of MMI?=?5. Although the standard design spectrum from Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings (standard No. 2800) seems to include appropriate values for the design of structures with fundamental period of 1 s and higher, it is underestimated for near-field ground motions at lower periods.