Impact of improved assimilation of temperature and salinity for coupled model seasonal forecasts

We assess the impact of improved ocean initial conditions for predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) coupled seasonal prediction model for the period 1982–2006. The new ocean initial conditions are provided by an ensemble-based analysis system that assimilates subsurface temperatures and salinity and which is a clear improvement over the previous optimal interpolation system which used static error covariances and was univariate (temperature only). Hindcasts using the new ocean initial conditions have better skill at predicting sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with ENSO than do the hindcasts initialized with the old ocean analyses. The improvement derives from better prediction of subsurface temperatures and the largest improvements come during ENSO–IOD neutral years. We show that improved prediction of the Niño3.4 SST index derives from improved initial depiction of the thermocline and halocline in the equatorial Pacific but as lead time increases the improved depiction of the initial salinity field in the western Pacific become more important. Improved ocean initial conditions do not translate into improved skill for predicting the IOD but we do see an improvement in the prediction of subsurface temperatures in the Indian Ocean (IO). This result reflects that the coupling between subsurface and surface temperature variations is weaker in the IO than in the Pacific, but coupled model errors may also be limiting predictive skill in the IO.     

Coherent structure dynamics and sediment particle motion around a cylindrical pier in developing scour holes

Recent investigations on the dynamics of the turbulent horseshoe vortex system (THV) around cylindrical piers have shown that the rich coherent dynamics of the vortical structures is dominated by low-frequency bimodal fluctuations of the velocity field. In spite of these advances, many questions remain regarding the changes of the flow and sediment transport dynamics as scour progresses. In this investigation we carry out laboratory experiments to register the development of the scour hole around a cylindrical pier in a fine-sand bed (d ₅₀ = 0.36 mm). We use the bathymetry measured in the experiment to simulate the flow field employing the detached-eddy simulation approach (DES), which has shown to resolve most of the turbulent stresses around surface-mounted obstacles. From these simulations we compare the dynamics of the THV to the flat-bed case, and analyze the effects on particle transport and sediment flux using the Lagrangian particle model of Escauriaza and Sotiropoulos (2011b) to study the impact of the changes of the flow on the sediment dynamics.     

Robust Regulation of Alkalinity in Highly Uncertain Continuous Anaerobic Digestion Processes

In this paper, a multiple‐input multiple‐output (MIMO) model‐based robust control scheme is proposed for the indirect control of both total alkalinity and the ratio (intermediate alkalinity)/(total alkalinity) by regulating volatile fatty acid concentrations and strong ions concentration, while guaranteeing the so‐called operational stability in anaerobic digestion (AD) processes. The proposed MIMO regulator is an adaptive controller derived from an AD model which incorporates the physicochemical equilibrium of the system as well as the use of a robust interval observer to estimate key process bounds that are used in the computation of the control efforts. Numerical simulations were carried out for a number of operating conditions under the most uncertain scenarios. Results showed that the proposed multivariable control law is able to recover the system stability around a pre‐determined set point in the face of parameter uncertainty and load disturbances.     

Power-law velocity profile in turbulent boundary layers: An integral reynolds-number dependent solution

Geophysical flows of practical interest encompass turbulent boundary layer flows. The velocity profile in turbulent flows is generally described by a log- or a power-law applicable to certain zones of the boundary layer, or by wall-wake law for the entire zone of the boundary layer. In this study, a novel theory is proposed from which the power-law velocity profile is obtained for the turbulent boundary layer flow. The new power-law profile is based on the conservation of mass and the skin friction within the boundary layer. From the proposed theory, analytical expressions for the power-law velocity profile are presented, and their Reynolds-number dependency is highlighted. The velocity profile, skin friction coefficient and boundary layer thickness obtained from the proposed theory are validated by the reliable experimental data for zero-pressure gradient turbulent boundary layers. The expressions for Reynolds shear stress and eddy viscosity distributions across the boundary layer are also obtained and validated by the experimental data.     

The control of the production process of phytoplankton by the physical structure of the aquatic environment with special reference to its optical properties

This tutorial was designed for nonbiologists requiring an introduction to the nature and general timescales of phytoplankton responses to physical forcing in aquatic environments. As such, an effort was made to highlight biological markers which might assist in identifying, measuring and/or validating physical processes controlling the variability in the distribution, abundance, composition and activity of phytoplankton communities. Given the recent advances in environmental optics and remote sensing capabilities, a special emphasis was placed on the nature and utility of phytoplankton optical properties in current bio-optical modelling efforts to predict temporal and spatial variability in phytoplankton productivity and growth.     

Large-scale galactic turbulence: can self-gravity drive the observed H i velocity dispersions?

Observations of turbulent velocity dispersions in the H  i component of galactic discs show a characteristic floor in galaxies with low star formation rates and within individual galaxies the dispersion profiles decline with radius. We carry out several high-resolution adaptive mesh simulations of gaseous discs embedded within dark matter haloes to explore the roles of cooling, star formation, feedback, shearing motions and baryon fraction in driving turbulent motions. In all simulations the disc slowly cools until gravitational and thermal instabilities give rise to a multiphase medium in which a large population of dense self-gravitating cold clouds are embedded within a warm gaseous phase that forms through shock heating. The diffuse gas is highly turbulent and is an outcome of large-scale driving of global non-axisymmetric modes as well as cloud–cloud tidal interactions and merging. At low star formation rates these processes alone can explain the observed H  i velocity dispersion profiles and the characteristic value of  ∼10 km s⁻¹  observed within a wide range of disc galaxies. Supernovae feedback creates a significant hot gaseous phase and is an important driver of turbulence in galaxies with a star formation rate per unit area  ≳10⁻³ M_⊙ yr⁻¹ kpc⁻²  .