Tsunami exposure estimation with land-cover data: Oregon and the Cascadia subduction zone

A Cascadia subduction-zone earthquake has the potential to generate tsunami waves which would impact more than 1000 km of coastline on the west coast of the United States and Canada. Although the predictable extent of tsunami inundation is similar for low-lying land throughout the region, human use of tsunami-prone land varies, creating variations in community exposure and potential impacts. To better understand such variations, land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery (e.g., 30-m-resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery) was coupled with tsunami-hazard information to describe tsunami-prone land along the Oregon coast. Land-cover data suggest that 95% of the tsunami-prone land in Oregon is undeveloped and is primarily wetlands and unconsolidated shores. Based on Spearman rank correlation coefficients (r_s), correlative relationships are strong and statistically significant (p < 0.05) between city-level estimates of the amount of land-cover pixels classified as developed (impervious cover greater than 20%) and the amount of various societal assets, including residential and employee populations, homes, businesses, and tax-parcel values. Community exposure to tsunami hazards, described here by the amount and relative percentage of developed land in tsunami-prone areas, varies considerably among the 26 communities of the study area, and these variations relate to city size. Correlative relationships are strong and significant (p < 0.05) for community exposure rankings based on land-cover data and those based on aggregated socioeconomic data. In the absence of socioeconomic data or community-based knowledge, the integration of hazards information and land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery to estimate community exposure may be a useful first step in understanding variations in community vulnerability to regional hazards.     

An integrated lake-catchment approach for determining sediment source changes at Aqualate Mere,Central England

This paper raises fundamental questions about the sole use of paleolimnological techniques to identify sediment sources and develop catchment management plans. The concept of an integrated lake: catchment framework was established 30 years ago, yet paleolimnologists occasionally fail to appreciate the dynamics of the contributing catchment. This is especially critical when the predominant source of sediment accumulating in a lake is allochthonous. In this paper we argue that a detailed appraisal of catchment sources and investigation of historical documentary evidence is needed to identify and evaluate the relative significance of sediment sources. We used such an approach at Aqualate Mere, Shropshire, UK. Mineral magnetic and radionculide signatures of potential catchment sources and accumulating lake sediments were compared in an attempt to match the sources to sediments deposited in the Mere. Dated lake sediments indicate there has been an increase in sedimentation rate and the relative amount of minerogenic material delivered to the Mere over the last 200 years. In contrast to a previous study at the same site, there is no evidence to attribute this increase to an overspill from a nearby canal. Other catchment disturbances include landscaping in parkland surrounding the Mere in the early nineteenth century and drainage systems installed to improve catchment agriculture over the last ca. 150 years. Both activities may explain the change in sedimentation rates and types, independent of the hypothesized canal origin. Although our results exclude the canal as a major sediment source, identifying the contribution of other potential catchment sources remains problematic. ¹³⁷Cs inventories for the lake are similar to those recorded at a local reference site, suggesting little influx of ¹³⁷Cs-bearing topsoil, yet ¹³⁷Cs activities remain high in the upper 20–30 cm of the lake sediment profile, indicating a topsoil origin. Combined radionuclide and mineral magnetic signatures proved to be relatively poor discriminators of potential sources, and the high atmospheric pollution load from the West Midland conurbation has probably altered recent lake sediment signatures. Although further research is required to identify the origins of recent (last ca. 200 years) minerogenic sediment inputs to the Mere, we suggest that the combined lake: catchment approach offers a more rigorous method for understanding the impact of catchment disturbance than analysis of the paleolimnological record alone.     

<Superscript>10</Superscript>Be, <Superscript>18</Superscript>O and radiogenic isotopic constraints on the origin of adakitic signatures: a case study from Solander and Little Solander Islands,New Zealand

Subduction-related Quaternary volcanic rocks from Solander and Little Solander Islands, south of mainland New Zealand, are porphyritic trachyandesites and andesites (58.20–62.19 wt% SiO₂) with phenocrysts of amphibole, plagioclase and biotite. The Solander and Little Solander rocks are incompatible element enriched (e.g. Sr ~931–2,270 ppm, Ba ~619–798 ppm, Th ~8.7–21.4 ppm and La ~24.3–97.2 ppm) with MORB-like Sr and Nd isotopic signatures. Isotopically similar quench-textured enclaves reflect mixing with intermediate (basaltic-andesite) magmas. The Solander rocks have geochemical affinities with adakites (e.g. high Sr/Y and low Y), whose origin is often attributed to partial melting of subducted oceanic crust. Solander sits on isotopically distinct continental crust, thus excluding partial melting of the lower crust in the genesis of the magmas. Furthermore, the incompatible element enrichments of the Solander rocks are inconsistent with partial melting of newly underplated mafic lower crust; reproduction of their major element compositions would require unrealistically high degrees of partial melting. A similar argument precludes partial melting of the subducting oceanic crust and the inability to match the observed trace element patterns in the presence of residual garnet or plagioclase. Alternatively, an enriched end member of depleted MORB mantle source is inferred from Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic compositions, trace element enrichments and εHf ? 0 CHUR in detrital zircons, sourced from the volcanics. ¹⁰Be and Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic systematics are inconsistent with significant sediment involvement in the source region. The trace element enrichments and MORB-like Sr and Nd isotopic characteristics of the Solander rocks require a strong fractionation mechanism to impart the high incompatible element concentrations and subduction-related (e.g. high LILE/HFSE) geochemical signatures of the Solander magmas. Trace element modelling shows that this can be achieved by very low degrees of melting of a peridotitic source enriched by the addition of a slab-derived melt. Subsequent open-system fractionation, involving a key role for mafic magma recharge, resulted in the evolved andesitic adakites.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

The effects of intermediate principle stress on the mechanical behavior of transversely isotropic rocks: Insights from DEM simulations

The discrete element method (DEM) is used to study the response of anisotropic rocks under true triaxial testing. Numerical samples of seven different bedding orientations (β = 0^o, 15^o, 30^o, 45^o, 60^o, 75^o, and 90^o) are created. Six series of test simulations (σ₃ = 0, 10, 30, 50, 70, and 100 MPa) are conducted on each sample, with five different σ₂ values, varied from σ₃ to σ₁. The effects of anisotropy and intermediate stress on the peak strength, brittle-ductile transition, and degree of anisotropy are subsequently explained through underlying micromechanics. Results show a “fan-shaped” variation of the peak strength with σ₂, displaying an ascending-then-descending trend. An increasing brittleness with σ₂ is observed at lower confining pressures for all, but medium anisotropy angles. For higher confining pressures, increasing ductility with σ₂ is seen for every anisotropy angle. A U-shaped variation of peak strength with anisotropy angles is noted that flattens under high intermediate stress. Hence, for numerical models of Posidonia shale under normalized σ₂ higher than 0.76, the anisotropy effect is found to be negligible. Micromechanical analyses reveal that the stress asymmetry, suppression of weak plane action as well as the localization and coalescence of microcracks in the intact rock matrix, due to σ₂, are the contributors towards the obtained trends. Since existing failure criteria do not weigh in these features in geotechnical assessments, this paper helps future studies by providing a deeper understanding of these effects and a comprehensive data set for the analyses of anisotropic rocks under polyaxial stress conditions.     

Distribution of Winter Flounder, Pseudopleuronectes americanus, in the Hampton–Seabrook Estuary, New Hampshire: Observations from a Field Study

From July to October 2004, five sites in the Hampton–Seabrook Estuary in New Hampshire were sampled with beam and otter trawls. The goals were to describe winter flounder (1) abundance in the estuary, (2) size class distributions, (3) spatial distribution by different size classes, and (4) distribution patterns. Of the 19 species caught, winter flounder was the most abundant and was dominated by young-of-the-year (YOY) fish. The five sites were fairly homogenous in depth, bottom type, salinity, and temperature. However, YOY abundance ranged from 2.1 to 32.1 fish 1,000 m^?2 depending on the site. Benthic community was the best indicator of juvenile winter flounder abundance. Catch data of other organisms fluctuated, but no one species was a strong predictor of winter flounder abundance and distribution. During late summer and early fall, the estuary is used primarily by YOY winter flounder, indicating that this estuary functions as a nursery ground.     

Spinifex biogeochemical expressions of buried gold mineralisation: The great mineral exploration penetrator of transported regolith

A major challenge for mineral explorers is to efficiently detect mineralisation beneath the weathered cover that extends across the landscape. Determination of the elemental composition of plants (biogeochemical exploration) can aid in the detection of buried ore deposits due to their root penetration through the weathered cover. At the coyote prospect in Western Australia a range of plant species were sampled traversing a buried Au orebody. Here it is shown that the soft spinifex (Triodia pungens) accumulated important pathfinder elements related to the mineralisation, which produced a multi-element surficial expression of the underlying ore deposit. Spinifex grasses are one of the most widespread grasses over the Australian continent and have vertical root systems that can extend for many 10s of metres through sedimentary cover and interact with buried mineral deposits and alteration zones in the underlying substrate. Spinifex biogeochemistry therefore has potential to be a low cost, low environmental impact, sampling medium for mineral exploration programs across large parts of arid Australia. The examination of similar grasses from other semi-arid and arid regions from around the world therefore also warrants further investigation.     

EFFECT OF DUNE MIGRATION ON SCOUR AT BRIDGE PIERS

This paper examines the effect of dune migration on local scour around bridge piers. Experiments show that local scour depths fluctuate in response to the translation of dunes past the scour hole. The scour depths measured in a model study conducted in live-bed conditions contain both scour due to the pier and that due to dunes. The con' tribution from scour due to the dunes may form a significant fraction of the total scour depth measured in model investigations. Therefore, it is imperative to separate these two components of scour for analysis and comparison. The study proposes that an equilibrium or time-average scour depth normalized using pier diameter be used for analysis, and the contribution from dunes to the total scour depth be added independently. Dune size, in the absence of field or measured data, may be estimated using published predictive curves. Comparisons between computed and measured scour depths show a good correlation, and 90% of all the data tested fall within a scatter of 15%.