Toward a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections

Anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR) causes considerable risks. Designing a sound SLR risk-management strategy requires careful consideration of decision-relevant uncertainties such as the reasonable upper bound of future SLR. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment reported a likely upper SLR bound in the year 2100 near 0.6 m (meter). More recent studies considering semi-empirical modeling approaches and kinematic constraints on glacial melting suggest a reasonable 2100 SLR upper bound of approximately 2 m. These recent studies have broken important new ground, but they largely neglect uncertainties surrounding thermal expansion (thermosteric SLR) and/or observational constraints on ocean heat uptake. Here we quantify the effects of key parametric uncertainties and observational constraints on thermosteric SLR projections using an Earth system model with a dynamic three-dimensional ocean, which provides a mechanistic representation of deep ocean processes and heat uptake. Considering these effects nearly doubles the contribution of thermosteric SLR compared to previous estimates and increases the reasonable upper bound of 2100 SLR projections by 0.25 m. As an illustrative example of the effect of overconfidence, we show how neglecting thermosteric uncertainty in projections of the SLR upper bound can considerably bias risk analysis and hence the design of adaptation strategies. For conditions close to the Port of Los Angeles, the 0.25 m increase in the reasonable upper bound can result in a flooding-risk increase by roughly three orders of magnitude. Results provide evidence that relatively minor underestimation of the upper bound of projected SLR can lead to major downward biases of future flooding risks.     

Cluster analysis of post-landfall tracks of landfalling tropical cyclones over China

In this paper, we apply finite-mixture-model-based clustering algorithms to cluster post-landfall tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall over China. Because existing studies find that landfall surfaces or elevations affect post-landfall TC movements, we also take account of elevations in addition to time orders in this model. Our study reveals three clusters, with cluster 1 making landfall in Hainan province and moving across the western coast of Guangdong province. Most of the TC tracks in cluster 1 move over the ocean and make secondary landfalls over Yunnan province of China and Vietnam. Cluster 1 finally dissipates inland and moves westward as a result of the westward-shift subtropical high, westward steering flow, easterly vertical wind shear and strong mountainous blocking. Cluster 2 makes landfall over Guangdong and Fujian provinces. TCs in cluster 2 subsequently move inland and disappear due largely to westward-shift subtropical high, easterly steering flow, easterly vertical wind shear and relatively strong mountainous blocking. Cluster 3 makes landfall along the Fujian and Zhejiang coast and sustains a long period of time, recurving mostly to the mid-latitude region owing to the surrounding eastward-shift subtropical high, westerly vertical wind shear, weak mountainous blocking and westerly steering flow. Because cluster 2 is significantly associated with La Niña events, TCs more likely make landfall over southeastern China coast and move westward or northwestward without recurving. Cluster 3 sustains a longer time than clusters 1 and 2 in spite of its weak horizontal and vertical water vapor supply. TCs in cluster 3 interact actively with westerlies during the post-landfall period. However, we cannot observe any analogous interactions with the mid-latitude westerlies in clusters 1 and 2. TCs of clusters 1 and 2 are influenced by summer monsoon flows. Moreover, summer monsoon exerts a greater influence on cluster 1 than cluster 2. The composite 200 hPa divergence of cluster 3 is stronger than that of clusters 1 and 2. This explains to some degree why cluster 3 sustains longer than clusters 1 and 2 after making landfall.     

Latent and sensible heat flux predictions from a uniform pine forest using surface renewal and flux variance methods

A surface renewal model that links organized eddy motion to the latent and sensible heat fluxes is tested with eddy correlation measurements carried out in a 13m tall uniform Loblolly pine plantation in Duke Forest, Durham, North Carolina. The surface renewal model is based on the occurance of ramp-like patterns in the scalar concentration measurements. To extract such ramp-like patterns from Eulerian scalar concentration measurements, a newly proposed time-frequency filtering scheme is developed and tested. The time-domain filtering is carried out using compactly-supported orthonormal wavelets in conjunction with the Universal Wavelet Thresholding approach of Donoho and Johnstone, while the frequency filtering is carried out by a band-pass sine filter centered around the ramp-occurrence frequency as proposed by other studies. The method was separately tested for heat and water vapour with good agreement between eddy correlation flux measurements and model predictions. The usefulness of the flux-variance method to predict sensible and latent heat fluxes is also considered. Our measurements suggest that the simple flux-variance method reproduces the measured heat and momentum fluxes despite the fact that the variances were measured within the roughness sublayer and not in the surface layer. Central to the predictions of water vapour fluxes using the flux-variance approach is the similarity between heat and water vapour transport by the turbulent air flow. This assumption is also investigated for this uniform forest terrain.     

Variability of carbon dioxide flux from tropical (Cerrado) hydroelectric reservoirs

Hydroelectric reservoirs generate energy without significant combustion of fossil fuels. However, these systems can, potentially, emit greenhouse gases (GHG’s) at a rate which may be significant at the global scale, and, possible, co-equal, per kilowatt-hour, to that from conventional coal or oil-fired systems. Although much of the new construction of hydroelectric reservoirs is in the tropics, most of the data on GHG emissions comes from temperate regions. Further, much of the existing data on reservoir gas emissions comes from single sites, usually near the terminal dams. Large tropical reservoirs often involve the impoundments of river systems with complex morphology which in turn can cause spatial heterogeneity in gas flux. We evaluated spatial and seasonal variability in CO₂ concentrations and gas flux for five large (50–1,400 km²) reservoirs in the Cerrado region of Brazil. Most of data set (87% of all measurements) showed CO₂ supersaturation and net efflux to the atmosphere. There was as much or more variation in pCO₂ over space and among seasons. The large studied reservoirs showed different zones in terms of CO₂ emission because those fluxes are dependent on flooded biomass, watershed input of organic matter and dam operation regime. Here we demonstrate that the reservoirs in the Brazilian Cerrado have low rates of CO₂ emissions compared to existing global comparisons. Our results suggest that ignoring the spatial variability can lead to more than 25% error in total system gas flux.     

Energy transfer in oxygen-hydrogen collisions

A formula is obtained for the rate coefficient for the production of a particle with a specific energy in an elastic collision with the atoms of a thermal gas. Accurate calculations are carried out of the energy transfer in elastic collisions of oxygen and hydrogen atoms. The fractions of hydrogen atoms with sufficient energy to escape from Venus produced in collisions of oxygen atoms with energies of 2.6 eV in a gas of atomic hydrogen at 100, 200 and 300 K are respectively 5.1, 6.9 and 8.5%.The mutual diffusion coefficient D of oxygen and hydrogen atoms is obtained. It can be represented by Dn = 7.25 × 10¹⁷T^0.71cm^?1s^?1 where n is the total atom density and T is the temperature.     

Probability distributions of concentration fluctuations of a weakly diffusive passive plume in a turbulent boundary layer

Results are presented from an experimental investigation of turbulent dispersion of a saline plume of large Schmidt number (Sc=830) in a turbulent boundary-layer shear flow simulated in a laboratory water channel. The dispersion measurements are obtained in a neutrally buoyant plume from an elevated point source over a range of downstream distances, where both plume meandering and fine-structure variations in the instantaneous plume are important. High-resolution measurements of the scalar fluctuations in the plume are made with a rake of conductivity probes from which probability distributions of concentration at various points throught the plume are extracted from the time series.Seven candidate probability distributions were tested, namely, the exponential, lognormal, clipped normal, gamma, Weibull, conjugate beta, andK-distributions. Using the measured values of the conditional mean concentration, , and the conditional fluctuation intensity,i _p , the Weibull distribution provided the best match to the skewness and kurtosis over all downstream fetches. The skewness and kurtosis were always overpredicted by the lognormal probability density function (pdf), and underpredicted by the gamma pdf. The conjugate beta distribution for which the model parameters are determined using a method of moments based on the fluctuation intensity,i _p , and skewness,S _p , was capable of modeling the distribution of scalar concentration over a wide range of positions in the plume.     

Multiscaling properties of concentration fluctuations in dispersing plumes revealed using an orthonormal wavelet decomposition

The dynamical characteristics of concentration fluctuations in a dispersing plume over the energetic and inertial-convective range of scales of turbulent motion are studied using a multiscale analysis technique that is based on an orthonormal wavelet representation. It is shown that the Haar wavelet concentration spectrum is similar to the Fourier concentration spectrum in that both spectra exhibit an extensive inertial-convective subrange spanning about two decades in frequency, with a scaling exponent of -5/3. Analysis of the statistical properties (e.g., fluctuation intensity, skewness, and kurtosis) of the concentration wavelet coefficients (i.e., the concentration discrete detailed signal) suggests that the small scales are always more intermittent than the large scales. The degree of intermittency increases monotonically with decreasing scale within the inertial-convective subrange, reaching a plateau at the very small scales associated with the beginning of the near-dissipation subrange. The probability density function (pdf) of the concentration discrete detailed signal displays stretched exponential tails with an intermittency exponent (tail slope) q that increases as ^a , where is the scale or dilation and a is a power-law exponent that is dependent on downwind distance, plume height, and stratification strength with typical values in the range from about 0.25 to 0.35. It is shown that the concentration variance cascade process requires a phase coherency of eddies between different scales at the small-scale end of the inertial-convective subrange.The variation of the concentration wavelet statistics with height above the ground is investigated. The increased mean shear near the ground smooths the fine-scale plume structure for scales within the inertial-convective subrange, producing a weaker spatiotemporal intermittency in the concentration field compared to that measured higher up in the plume. The pdf of the concentration detailed signal at a fixed scale possesses less elongated tails with decreasing height z. The intermittency exponent q is found to decrease roughly linearly with increasing z.Finally, the results of the wavelet decomposition are combined to provide a conceptual model of the turbulent transport, stirring, and mixing regimes in a dispersing plume. The implications of the results for contaminant texture in a plume are discussed.     

Experimental determination of activities in Fe−Mg olivine at 1400 K

The exchage equilibrium has been used to measure activity-composition relations along the olivine join FeSi_0.5O₂−MgSi_0.5O₂ at 1400 K and 1 atm pressure. Equilibrium Fe−Mg partitioning between the two phases was determined by reversing the compositions of olivine coexisting with oxide and matallic iron over the composition range Fo₂₃ to Fo₉₂. A detailed study of the thermodynamic properties of the oxide phase has recently been made by Srečec et al. and we have confirmed their results in the composition range of interest. Application of the oxide data to the exchange equilibrium enables the properties of olivine to be determined. Within experimental uncertainly (Fe, Mg)Si_0.5O₂ olivine can, at 1400 K, be treated as a symmetric solution with W _Fe-Mg ^o1 of 3.7±0.8 kJ/mol. The data permit the presence of only very slight asymmetry in the series. The data do not support recent assertions that olivine is highly non-ideal (W≈10 kJ/mol) under these conditions.     

Nonlinear spatial baroclinic instability in slowly varying zonal flow

The linear and weakly nonlinear dynamics of long, low frequency, spatially growing baroclinic waves embedded in slowly varying zonal flow on a β-plane channel are examined in a continuous model of the atmosphere. For a basic state jet flow possessing a locally unstable region, the nonlinear solution yields a maximum amplitude that is located near the region of maximum baroclinicity and substantially upstream of the maximum amplitude obtained from linear theory. The difference between the linear and nonlinear solutions is due to the time-averaged wave fluxes becoming large enough in the nonlinear problem to stabilize the flow prior to reaching the location (jet center) where the basic state baroclinicity and locally computed linear growth rate are maximized.