Why delaying emission reductions is a gamble

In the debate on the timing of greenhouse gas emissions reductions the aspect of political feasibility has often been missing. We introduce this aspect and show that, if we decide to delay emissions reductions, and the environmental effectiveness of global mitigation efforts is to remain the same in terms of temperature change, we must be willing and able to undertake much more substantial emission reductions than with early action. Even under conservative assumptions on initial political feasibility (maximum 0.25% year-on-year reductions), a 20-year delay means that we must reduce emissions at an annual rate that is 5 to 11 times greater than with early climate action. Our capacity for technological progress, political change and the inertia of the socio-economic system gives us reason to be concerned about our ability to achieve such higher rates of emission reductions. If we are not able to achieve such higher rates, delaying action will inevitably result in higher temperatures in 2100. Unless we are willing to accept higher temperatures, choosing to delay climate action is a gamble that political feasibility will increase over time as a result of the delay itself.     

Seasonal changes in imposex and tissue burden of butyltin compounds in Thais clavigera populations along the coastal area of Mirs Bay, China

We assessed the current status of tributyltin (TBT) contamination of Thais clavigera (Gastropoda) along the coastal area of Mirs Bay, China for the first time. The snail samples were collected from 10 different sites in the summer (June) and winter (December) of 2006, respectively. They were analyzed for imposex status, i.e. relative penis size index (RPSI) and vas deferens sequence index (VDSI), followed by quantification of butyltins in their tissues. Most of the collected females suffered from imposex, but the level of butyltin contamination varied with the distance from Yantian Port, which is currently the fourth busiest container port in the world. The tissue concentration of TBT varied with season. For a particular site, the winter samples in general contained much higher concentration of TBT than the summer samples. RPSI, VDSI and organotin concentrations were higher in T. clavigera collected from sites closer to the Port, such as the Seafood Street and Kat O. Both RPSI and VDSI were positively correlated with the tissue burden of tributyltin. VDSI exhibited little seasonal variability, whereas RPSI showed marked seasonal variability, with lower values in the summer samples. The current results will serve as an important reference for long-term monitoring of butyltin contamination in this area.     

Sulfide-driven arsenic mobilization from arsenopyrite and black shale pyrite

We examined the hypothesis that sulfide drives arsenic mobilization from pyritic black shale by a sulfide-arsenide exchange and oxidation reaction in which sulfide replaces arsenic in arsenopyrite forming pyrite, and arsenide (As−1) is concurrently oxidized to soluble arsenite (As+3). This hypothesis was tested in a series of sulfide-arsenide exchange experiments with arsenopyrite (FeAsS), homogenized black shale from the Newark Basin (Lockatong formation), and pyrite isolated from Newark Basin black shale incubated under oxic (21% O₂), hypoxic (2% O₂, 98% N₂), and anoxic (5% H₂, 95% N₂) conditions. The oxidation state of arsenic in Newark Basin black shale pyrite was determined using X-ray absorption-near edge structure spectroscopy (XANES). Incubation results show that sulfide (1 mM initial concentration) increases arsenic mobilization to the dissolved phase from all three solids under oxic and hypoxic, but not anoxic conditions. Indeed under oxic and hypoxic conditions, the presence of sulfide resulted in the mobilization in 48 h of 13-16 times more arsenic from arsenopyrite and 6-11 times more arsenic from isolated black shale pyrite than in sulfide-free controls. XANES results show that arsenic in Newark Basin black shale pyrite has the same oxidation state as that in FeAsS (−1) and thus extend the sulfide-arsenide exchange mechanism of arsenic mobilization to sedimentary rock, black shale pyrite. Biologically active incubations of whole black shale and its resident microorganisms under sulfate reducing conditions resulted in sevenfold higher mobilization of soluble arsenic than sterile controls. Taken together, our results indicate that sulfide-driven arsenic mobilization would be most important under conditions of redox disequilibrium, such as when sulfate-reducing bacteria release sulfide into oxic groundwater, and that microbial sulfide production is expected to enhance arsenic mobilization in sedimentary rock aquifers with major pyrite-bearing, black shale formations.     

Distributed deformation around the eastern tip of the Kunlun fault

Whether active strain within the Indo-Asian collision zone is primarily localized along major strike-slip fault systems or is distributed throughout the intervening crust between faults remains uncertain. Despite refined estimates of slip rates along many of the major fault zones, relatively little is known about how displacement along these structures is accommodated at fault terminations. Here, we show that a systematic decrease in left-lateral slip rates along the eastern ~200 km of the Kunlun fault, from >10 mm/year to <1 mm/year, is coincident with high topography in the Anyemaqen Shan and with a broad zone of distributed shear and clockwise vorticity within the Tibetan Plateau. Geomorphic analysis of river longitudinal profiles, coupled with inventories of cosmogenic radionuclides in fluvial sediment, reveal correlated variations in fluvial relief and erosion rate across the Anyemaqen Shan that reflect ongoing differential rock uplift across the range. Our results imply that the termination of the Kunlun fault system is accommodated by a combination of distributed crustal thickening and by clockwise rotation of the eastern fault segments.     

Petrology of filicudi,aeolian archipelago

Volcanic rocks on the island of Filicudi are typical of the cale-alkaline association of the Aeolian archipelago, and range in composition from basalt to high-K andesite. All specimens contain abundant phenocrystic plagioclase (cores of An_82–97, rims becoming progressively more sodic with increasing Differentiation Index), clinopyroxene, and magnetite; the most basic samples contain olivine, which is replaced by orthopyroxene at around D.I.=44. SiO₂ generally increases with time, and this in conjunction with the continuity in mineralogy suggests that the lavas are the differentiation products of a single batch of magma. Least-squares mixing calculations are consistent with a shallow fractional model, as is the variation in trace element abundances.     

Diffusion spreading of middle-latitude ionospheric plasma irregularities

In contrast to the way that the spreading of irregularities in a plasma is usually considered, the diffusion spreading of irregularities stretched along the geomagnetic field B is examined using a three-dimensional rigorous numerical model of quasi-neutral diffusion in the presence of a magnetic field, in conjunction with the actual height variations of the diffusion and conductivity tensors in the ionosphere. A comparison with the earlier constructed approximate model of unipolar diffusion was made. As in the previous case, the same peculiarities of irregularity spreading in the inhomogeneous background ionospheric plasma were observed. The accuracy of the approximate model for describing the process of spreading of anisotropic ionospheric irregularities is established. Time relaxation effects of real heating-induced ionospheric irregularities on their scale transverse to B are presented using the approximate analytical model for the case of a quasi-homogeneous ionospheric plasma. The calculated results have a vivid physical meaning and can be directly compared with experimental data on the radiophysical observations of artificial heating-induced irregularities created by powerful radio waves in the ionosphere.     

Outlier separability analysis with a multiple alternative hypotheses test

Outlier separability analysis is a fundamental component of modern geodetic measurement analysis, positioning, navigation, and many other applications. The current theory of outlier separability is based on using two alternative hypotheses—an assumption that may not necessarily be valid. In this paper, the current theory of outlier separability is statistically analysed and then extended to the general case, where there are multiple alternative hypotheses. Taking into consideration the complexity of the critical region and the probability density function of the outlier test, the bounds of the associated statistical decision probabilities are then developed. With this theory, the probabilities of committing type I, II, and III errors can be controlled so that the probability of successful identification of an outlier can be guaranteed when performing data snooping. The theoretical findings are then demonstrated using a simulated GPS point positioning example. Detailed analysis shows that the larger the correlation coefficient, between the outlier statistics, the smaller the probability of committing a type II error and the greater the probability of committing a type III error. When the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.8, there is a far greater chance of committing a type III error than committing a type II error. In addition, to guarantee successful identification of an outlier with a set probability, the minimal detectable size of the outlier (often called the Minimal Detectable Bias or MDB) should dramatically increase with the correlation coefficient.     

Does geographic location impact the survival differential between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers?

Although mammography screening programs aim to diagnose breast cancer at an early stage, not all tumours are detected during the regular screening examination. This study examines the influence of various characteristics, including geographical residence, on the survival between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers among participants of a public population-based breast screening program in Queensland, Australia. The investigation was performed using the linked population-based datasets from BreastScreen Queensland and the Queensland Cancer Registry for the period of 1997–2008 for women aged 40–89 years at diagnosis. A Bayesian spatial relative survival modelling approach that accommodates rare outcomes in small geographic regions was adopted, with the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo computation, to evaluate the relative excess risk of breast cancer. In the multivariate Bayesian spatial model, higher relative excess risk of mortality was observed in interval-detected cancer (RER = 1.59, 95 % credible interval = [1.33, 1.89]) compared to screen-detected cancer. Higher cancer survival among the study cohort was also observed among younger women (40–59 years), those of non-Indigenous ethnicity, with localised (stage I) tumour stage as well as those not in the work force. There was no independent association with marital status. Moreover, there was no substantive evidence of either measured geographical or latent random spatial inequalities in survival among screening participants across Queensland, meaning the higher survival for screen-detected breast cancer patients compared to interval-detected women was consistent across the state. These results provide suggestive evidence supporting the effectiveness of the BreastScreen Queensland screening program in reaching socio-economically disadvantaged women as well as those living in rural and remote areas of the state, but also highlights the need for any interval cancer awareness programs to be geographically widespread.     

Groundwater-level response to land-use change and the implications for salinity management in the West Moorabool River catchment, Victoria, Australia

The connection between the removal of native vegetation, rising water tables and increasing stream salinity has been established for many catchments across Australia. However, the West Moorabool River in south west Victoria is an example of a catchment where there has been little discernable effect on groundwater levels following land clearing. Over the past 150 years, a significant portion of the catchment has been cleared of dense forest for agricultural development. Historic standing water-level records from 1870–1871 and 1881 are compared with contemporary measurements (1970s to 2007) recorded in the government bore databases. The data show that the earliest recorded groundwater levels are well within the seasonal range of values observed today. By integrating geology and hydrogeology with historical observations of groundwater levels, climate data and land use, the contemporary field observations of stream salinity are linked to the changed water use and shift in rainfall. In contrast to the normally accepted axiom, reafforestation as a management strategy to mitigate the rising salinity in the West Moorabool River catchment would seem inappropriate.