Why delaying emission reductions is a gamble

In the debate on the timing of greenhouse gas emissions reductions the aspect of political feasibility has often been missing. We introduce this aspect and show that, if we decide to delay emissions reductions, and the environmental effectiveness of global mitigation efforts is to remain the same in terms of temperature change, we must be willing and able to undertake much more substantial emission reductions than with early action. Even under conservative assumptions on initial political feasibility (maximum 0.25% year-on-year reductions), a 20-year delay means that we must reduce emissions at an annual rate that is 5 to 11 times greater than with early climate action. Our capacity for technological progress, political change and the inertia of the socio-economic system gives us reason to be concerned about our ability to achieve such higher rates of emission reductions. If we are not able to achieve such higher rates, delaying action will inevitably result in higher temperatures in 2100. Unless we are willing to accept higher temperatures, choosing to delay climate action is a gamble that political feasibility will increase over time as a result of the delay itself.     

Managing land-use effects on Northland dune lakes: lessons from the past

The Northland region of New Zealand includes numerous high-value, macrophyte-dominated dune lakes. Recent water policy reforms offer limited guidance on managing for aquatic macrophytes. In addition, dune lake histories are poorly known as regular monitoring dates to 2005 AD. Here, ca. 4000 years of lake functional behaviour is reconstructed from sedimentary archives in two Northland dune lakes (Humuhumu and Rotokawau). Results demonstrated that macrophyte dominance is sensitive to catchment erosion and hydrological drawdown. Degradation of macrophyte communities occurred in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, earlier at Lake Humuhumu than Lake Rotokawau (post-1880 AD and post-1930 AD, respectively). In both lakes, increased erosional influx reduced macrophyte productivity, before later increases to wider trophic state (post-1970 AD). Lake-level decline is linked to increased nutrient loading at Lake Rotokawau but less so, Lake Humuhumu which is more strongly groundwater-fed. In Northland dune lakes, water-level reduction and erosional influx from land use have driven macrophyte degradation.     

Palynology of Triassic–Jurassic boundary sections in northern Switzerland

A first palynostratigraphic scheme of Upper Triassic deposits in northern Switzerland was established based on spore-pollen associations and dinoflagellate cyst records from the upper part of the Upper Triassic Klettgau Formation and the lower part of the Lower Jurassic Staffelegg Formation. Drill cores from the Adlerberg region (Basel Tabular Jura) and from Weiach (northern part of Canton Zurich) as well as from an outcrop at the Chilchzimmersattel (Basel Folded Jura) were studied and five informal palynological associations are distinguished. These palynological associations correlate with palynological association of the Central European Epicontinental Basin and the Tethyan realm and provide a stratigraphic framework for the uppermost Triassic sediments in northern Switzerland. Throughout the uppermost Triassic to Jurassic palynological succession a remarkable prominence of Classopollis spp. is observed. Besides Classopollis spp. the three Rhaetian palynological associations A to C from the Upper Triassic Belchen Member include typical Rhaetian spore-pollen and dinoflagellate taxa (e.g., Rhaetipollis germanicus, Geopollis zwolinskae, Rhaetogonyaulax rhaetica, and Dapcodinium priscum). Association B differs from association A in a higher relative abundance of the sporomorph taxa Perinopollenites spp. and the consistent occurrence of Granuloperculatipollis rudis and Ricciisporites tuberculatus. Spore diversity is highest in the late Rhaetian palynological association C and includes Polypodiisporites polymicroforatus. A Rhaetian age for the Belchen Member is confirmed by palynological associations A–C, but there is no record of the latest Rhaetian and the earliest Jurassic. In contrast to the Rhaetian palynological associations the Early Jurassic associations W and D include Pinuspollenites spp., Trachysporites fuscus (in association W), and Ischyosporites variegatus. In the view of the end-Triassic mass extinction and contemporaneous environmental changes the described palynofloral succession represents the pre-extinction phase (associations A and B) including a distinct transgression, the extinction phase (association C) associated with a regression, and the post-extinction phase (association W).     

Quantifying urban land cover change between 2001 and 2006 in the Gulf of Mexico region

We estimated urbanization rates (2001–2006) in the Gulf of Mexico region using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001 and 2006 impervious surface products. An improved method was used to update the NLCD impervious surface product in 2006 and associated land cover transition between 2001 and 2006. Our estimation reveals that impervious surface increased 416 km² with a growth rate of 5.8% between 2001 and 2006. Approximately 1110.1 km² of non-urban lands were converted into urban land, resulting in a 3.2% increase in the region. Hay/pasture, woody wetland, and evergreen forest represented the three most common land cover classes that transitioned to urban. Among these land cover transitions, more than 50% of the urbanization occurred within 50 km of the coast. Our analysis shows that the close-to-coast land cover transition trend, especially within 10 km off the coast, potentially imposes substantial long-term impacts on regional landscape and ecological conditions.     

Instrumentation Development for In Situ 40Ar/39Ar Planetary Geochronology

The chronology of the Solar System, particularly the timing of formation of extra‐terrestrial bodies and their features, is an outstanding problem in planetary science. Although various chronological methods for in situ geochronology have been proposed (e.g., Rb‐Sr, K‐Ar), and even applied (K‐Ar), the reliability, accuracy, and applicability of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method makes it by far the most desirable chronometer for dating extra‐terrestrial bodies. The method however relies on the neutron irradiation of samples, and thus a neutron source. Herein, we discuss the challenges and feasibility of deploying a passive neutron source to planetary surfaces for the in situ application of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar chronometer. Requirements in generating and shielding neutrons, as well as analysing samples are described, along with an exploration of limitations such as mass, power and cost. Two potential solutions for the in situ extra‐terrestrial deployment of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method are presented. Although this represents a challenging task, developing the technology to apply the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method on planetary surfaces would represent a major advance towards constraining the timescale of solar system formation and evolution.     

Meanders in the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone and their impact on phytoplankton

The Antarctic Polar Front is a complex set of meandering jets, which appear to support enhanced primary productivity. The US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study conducted a series of survey and process studies in part to study the processes regulating primary productivity in this high nutrient, low chlorophyll region. We deployed a set of surface velocity drifters, some of which were equipped with bio-optical sensors, to study the temporal and spatial scales of biological and physical processes in the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone. There were two primary sets of deployments: November 1997 before the spring bloom and January 1998 after the spring bloom. The November deployment revealed a strong spring bloom that lasted about 10 days. In late spring, when incoming solar radiation began to increase, the vertical motions associated with the meanders strongly affected the accumulation of phytoplankton biomass, primarily through their impact on light availability. Weaker meandering was observed in the January deployment, and chlorophyll values remained relatively constant. As the bloom began to decay, it appears that nutrient availability became more important in regulating phytoplankton photosynthesis. Some of the drifters in the November deployment were deployed in coherent clusters, thus allowing us to calculate vertical velocities associated with the meanders. Estimates of fluorescence/chlorophyll suggest that areas of upwelling and downwelling alternately decrease and increase photosynthetic stress, perhaps as a result of changes in the availability of iron or light during the formation of the bloom.     

Contrasting geochemical signatures on land from the Middle and Late Permian extinction events

The end of the Palaeozoic is marked by two mass‐extinction events during the Middle Permian (Capitanian) and the Late Permian (Changhsingian). Given similarities between the two events in geochemical signatures, such as large magnitude negative δ¹³C anomalies, sedimentological signatures such as claystone breccias, and the approximate contemporaneous emplacement of large igneous provinces, many authors have sought a common causal mechanism. Here, a new high‐resolution continental record of the Capitanian event from Portal Mountain, Antarctica, is compared with previously published Changhsingian records of geochemical signatures of weathering intensity and palaeoclimatic change. Geochemical means of discriminating sedimentary provenance (Ti/Al, U/Th and La/Ce ratios) all indicate a common provenance for the Portal Mountain sediments and associated palaeosols, so changes spanning the Capitanian extinction represent changes in weathering intensity rather than sediment source. Proxies for weathering intensity chemical index of alteration, ?W and rare earth element accumulation all decline across the Capitanian extinction event at Portal Mountain, which is in contrast to the increased weathering recorded globally at the Late Permian extinction. Furthermore, palaeoclimatic proxies are consistent with unchanging or cooler climatic conditions throughout the Capitanian event, which contrasts with Changhsingian records that all indicate a significant syn‐extinction and post‐extinction series of greenhouse warming events. Although both the Capitanian and Changhsingian event records indicate significant redox shifts, palaeosol geochemistry of the Changhsingian event indicates more reducing conditions, whereas the new Capitanian record of reduced trace metal abundances (Cr, Cu, Ni and Ce) indicates more oxidizing conditions. Taken together, the differences in weathering intensity, redox and the lack of evidence for significant climatic change in the new record suggest that the Capitanian mass extinction was not triggered by dyke injection of coal‐beds, as in the Changhsingian extinction, and may instead have been triggered directly by the Emeishan large igneous province or by the interaction of Emeishan basalts with platform carbonates.     

A fresh look at discordant redshift galaxies in compact groups

We reexamine the statistics of discordant redshift galaxies in compact groups. We find that 43 out of 100 groups in the Hickson catalog contain at least one discordant redshift galaxy. We show that, despite the prevailing impression, all previous attempts have failed to explain this large number of discordant redshift galaxies. The order of magnitude excess survives all of our attempts to refine the sample.     

In situ Mixing of Organic Matter Decreases Hydraulic Conductivity of Denitrification Walls in Sand Aquifers

In a previous study, a denitrification wall was constructed in a sand aquifer using sawdust as the carbon substrate. Ground water bypassed around this sawdust wall due to reduced hydraulic conductivity. We investigated potential reasons for this by testing two new walls and conducting laboratory studies. The first wall was constructed by mixing aquifer material in situ without substrate addition to investigate the effects of the construction technique (mixed wall). A second, biochip wall, was constructed using coarse wood chips to determine the effect of size of the particles in the amendment on hydraulic conductivity. The aquifer hydraulic conductivity was 35.4 m/d, while in the mixed wall it was 2.8 m/d and in the biochip wall 3.4 m/d. This indicated that the mixing of the aquifer sands below the water table allowed the particles to re-sort themselves into a matrix with a significantly lower hydraulic conductivity than the process that originally formed the aquifer. The addition of a coarser substrate in the biochip wall significantly increased total porosity and decreased bulk density, but hydraulic conductivity remained low compared to the aquifer. Laboratory cores of aquifer sand mixed under dry and wet conditions mimicked the reduction in hydraulic conductivity observed in the field within the mixed wall. The addition of sawdust to the laboratory cores resulted in a significantly higher hydraulic conductivity when mixed dry compared to cores mixed wet. This reduction in the hydraulic conductivity of the sand/sawdust cores mixed under saturated conditions repeated what occurred in the field in the original sawdust wall. This indicated that laboratory investigations can be a useful tool to highlight potential reductions in field hydraulic conductivities that may occur when differing materials are mixed under field conditions.