基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价

This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that,the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability,which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators,the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years,starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions,and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China,most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.     

On the spatial directivity of solar radio bursts

In this paper, a new method of estimating the spatial directivity (in the form of center-to-limb variation) of microwave burst emission is proposed and derived. Estimations of radioemission directivity values vs observation frequency are obtained. Results are compared to the radio source model using an inhomogeneous magnetic field, source size and particle density, and show a high degree of agreement. Values of model parameters from earlier estimations are confirmed.     

Development of an automatic volcanic ash sampling apparatus for active volcanoes

We develop an automatic system for the sampling of ash fall particles, to be used for continuous monitoring of magma ascent and eruptive dynamics at active volcanoes. The system consists of a sampling apparatus and cameras to monitor surface phenomena during eruptions. The Sampling Apparatus for Time Series Unmanned Monitoring of Ash (SATSUMA-I and SATSUMA-II) is less than 10 kg in weight and works automatically for more than a month with a 10-kg lead battery to obtain a total of 30 to 36 samples in one cycle of operation. The time range covered in one cycle varies from less than an hour to several months, depending on the aims of observation, allowing researchers to target minute-scale fluctuations in a single eruptive event, as well as daily to weekly trends in persistent volcanic activity. The latest version, SATSUMA-II, also enables control of sampling parameters remotely by e-mail commands. Durability of the apparatus is high: our prototypes worked for several months, in rainy and typhoon seasons, at windy and humid locations, and under strong sunlight. We have been successful in collecting ash samples emitted from Showa crater almost everyday for more than 4 years (2008–2012) at Sakurajima volcano in southwest Japan.     

Seasonal transition of hydrological processes in a slow‐moving landslide in a snowy region

A comprehensive understanding of seasonal hydrological dynamics is required to describe the influence of pore‐water pressure on the stability of landslides in snowy regions. This study reports on the results of continuous meteorological and hydrological observations over 2 years on a landslide body comprising Neogene sedimentary rocks in northern Japan, where a thick (3–5 m) seasonal snowpack covers the land surface. Monitoring of the volumetric water content in shallow unsaturated zones (<0.8 m depth) and pore‐water pressure in saturated bedrock at depths of 2.0 and 5.2 m revealed clear seasonality in hydrological responses to rainfall and meltwater supply. During snow‐free periods, both the shallow soil moisture and deep pore‐water pressure responded rapidly to intense rainwater infiltration. In contrast, during snowmelt, the deep pore pressure fluctuated in accordance with the daily cycle of meltwater input, without notable changes in shallow moisture conditions. During occasional foehn events that cause intense snow melting in midwinter, meltwater flows preferentially through the layered snowpack, converging to produce a localized water supply at the ground surface. This episodically triggers a significant rise in pore‐water pressure. The seasonal differences in hydrological responses were characterized by a set of newly proposed indices for the magnitude and quickness of increases in the pressure head near the sliding surface. Under snow‐covered conditions, the magnitude of the pressure increase tends to be suppressed, probably owing to a reduction in infiltration caused by a seasonal decrease in the permeability of surface soils, and effective pore‐water drainage through the highly conductive colluvial layer. Deep groundwater flow within bedrock remained in a steady upwelling state, enhanced by increasing moisture in shallow soils under snow cover, reflecting the convergence of subsurface water from surrounding hillslopes.