Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.     

Interpreting What is Rural and Urban for Western U.S. Counties

The paper examines how rural and urban are interpreted and applied to counties in eleven states in the western United States. After reviewing various conceptual approaches, we turn to a three‐part analysis of county commissioners' perceptions and census data to identify characteristics associated with urban‐ness and rurality. The analysis involves comparing qualitative and quantitative survey and interview data, using a multiple regression analysis to correlate census variables with commissioners' perceptions of their home counties, and using cluster analysis techniques on census variables to identify patterns and unevenness in rurality and urbanness. Three characteristics mentioned by the widest range of commissioners and found to be statistically significant in the regression analysis were population concentration, total population, and the agricultural land base. Population concentration, in particular, was identified most frequently by interviewees as the single most important variable in characterizing an urban county and had the most meaningful contribution to predicting commissioners' perceptions of their home counties in the regression analysis. The cluster analysis identified five county types: largest urban centers, growing regional hubs, high growth rural, dispersed rural, and stable rural agriculture. These county types were widely distributed, reflecting the spatial unevenness of macroscale processes operating across eleven western states.     

Ecosystem history of Mississippi River-influenced continental shelf revealed through preserved phytoplankton pigments

Pigments determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) provide useful information concerning water column and epibenthic plant and microbial communities in both extant communities and accumulated sediments in lakes, estuaries and the ocean. Chlorophyll and its degradation products provide an estimate of overall biomass, and carotenoid pigments provide taxonomic biomarkers of phytoplankton. We examined the pigments preserved in sediment cores from the Louisiana continental shelf adjacent to the outflow of the Mississippi River system to document changes in phytoplankton community composition, phytoplankton abundance, and conditions of hypoxia over time. Carbon accumulated in sediments from water depths of 20-60 m is primarily derived from marine phytoplankton and represents the history of phytoplankton communities in the overlying water. There is a general increase in chlorophyll a, pheopigments, zeaxanthin, fucoxanthin and most carotenoids over time, with the change gradual from 1955 to 1970, followed by a fairly steady increase to 1997. The highest chloropigment concentrations are in cores from areas more likely to be exposed to seasonal hypoxia. These indicate an increase in eutrophication in the form of greater diatom and cyanobacterial production, or a worsening of hypoxia, or both. This trend expanded westward along the Louisiana shelf in the 1990s.     

Differences in vegetation characteristics with shoreline position on a tropical pocket beach

ABSTRACT

Composition and richness of coastal vegetation differs with distance from the water and sheltering by topography. Transition from pioneer beach plants to mature forests is expected to be narrow on low wave energy coasts with a tropical climate favorable to vegetation growth. The goal of this paper is to determine whether vegetation on the beach and foredune will be denser and have a greater number of species and more woody shrubs near the water as wave and wind stresses diminish because of favorable shoreline orientation within a pocket beach. Field data on beach width, beach mobility, dune height, vegetation species, vegetation height and percent vegetation cover were collected in Puerto Rico along six cross-shore transects. Beaches are more stable at transects in the lee of an eolianite barrier and a tombolo. The vegetation gradient there is compressed, with denser, taller, more diverse vegetation and more tree species close to the waterline than at more exposed sites. The lack of mobility of the beaches and dunes and lack of geomorphically significant disturbance events is in contrast to the conspicuous feedbacks between overwash, topography, and vegetation on exposed mid-latitude coasts, revealing the need for more study of low-energy beach environments.     

Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling

Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making.     

Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin,USA

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the US High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.     

Mixing of magmas from enriched and depleted mantle sources in the northeast Pacific: West Valley segment,Juan de Fuca Ridge

The 50 km-long West Valley segment of the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge is a young, extension-dominated spreading centre, with volcanic activity concentrated in its southern half. A suite of basalts dredged from the West Valley floor, the adjacent Heck Seamount chain, and a small near-axis cone here named Southwest Seamount, includes a spectrum of geochemical compositions ranging from highly depleted normal (N-) MORB to enriched (E-) MORB. Heck Seamount lavas have chondrite-normalized La/Sm_cn0.3, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.70235–0.70242, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=18.22–18.44, requiring a source which is highly depleted in trace elements both at the time of melt generation and over geologic time. The E-MORB from Southwest Seamount have La/Sm_cn1.8, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.70245–0.70260, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=18.73–19.15, indicating a more enriched source. Basalts from the West Valley floor have chemical compositions intermediate between these two end-members. As a group, West Valley basalts from a two-component mixing array in element-element and element-isotope plots which is best explained by magma mixing. Evidence for crustal-level magma mixing in some basalts includes mineral-melt chemical and isotopic disequilibrium, but mixing of melts at depth (within the mantle) may also occur. The mantle beneath the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge is modelled as a plum-pudding, with plums of enriched, amphibole-bearing peridotite floating in a depleted matrix (DM). Low degrees of melting preferentially melt the plums, initially removing only the amphibole component and producing alkaline to transitional E-MORB. Higher degrees of melting tap both the plums and the depleted matrix to yield N-MORB. The subtly different isotopic compositions of the E-MORBs compared to the N-MORBs require that any enriched component in the upper mantle was derived from a depleted source. If the enriched component crystallized from fluids with a DM source, the plums could evolve to their more evolved isotopic composition after a period of 1.5–2.0 Ga. Alternatively, the enriched component could have formed recently from fluids with a less-depleted source than DM, such as subducted oceanic crust. A third possibility is that enriched material might be dispersed as plums throughout the upper mantle, transported from depth by mantle plumes.     

Induction of zona radiata and vitellogenin genes in estradiol and nonylphenol exposed male sheepshead minnows (Cyprinodon variegatus)

Several genes normally induced by estradiol (E(2)) in female fish, those for vitellogenins (VTGs) and zona radiata proteins (ZRPs), are also inducible in males exposed to estrogenic chemicals. Male sheepshead minnows (SHM) were exposed to both E(2) and para-nonylphenol (NP), at several doses and times to determine a dose-response. Quantitative real time PCR was used to measure mRNA for VTG1, VTG2, ZRP2 and ZRP3. Both E(2) and NP elicited a dose-response increase in all of the mRNAs tested. Exposure to both chemicals resulted in VTG2 expression at about a 10-fold lower level than VTG1, and ZRP2 expression at a lower level than ZRP3.