Field application at a DNAPL-contaminated site in Nanjing and discussion of a source search algorithm based on stochastic modeling and Kalman filter

Delineation of contaminant sources is vital for successful groundwater and soil remediation. With reliable source information, remediation time and cost can be dramatically reduced. An optimal contamination source search strategy incorporating Monte Carlo method, Kalman filtering and fuzzy set theory was applied to a contaminated site in Nanjing to define suspected multiple DNAPL source locations. Using the available nine sample data, the algorithm identified sources #1 and #4 as true sources, and sources #5 and #6 as false ones. The algorithm results for sources #2 and #3 were inconclusive. Three numerical experiments based on specific site conditions were then designed and conducted to determine the influencing factors on the algorithm’s convergence in sources #2 and #3. The numerical experiments tested the effect of multiple sources, the effect of the sources location in relation to the groundwater flow direction and the effect of a low permeability field on the convergence of the algorithm. Based on the numerical experiments and an understanding of the manufacturing site operations, sources #2 and #3 are likely to be true sources. Their moderate weights have been stabilized due to the existence of multiple true sources and the scarcity of informative sampling data, caused by the low permeability field. The moderate weight value of source #3 also includes a contribution from an overlapping plume caused by the sources’ parallel-to-flow layout pattern. It can be concluded that the algorithm works best for high permeability sites where potential source locations are scattered and source location patterns are orthogonal to the groundwater flow.     

Non-Energy Resources,Connecticut Coastal Waters,Year 9 and 10 Activities

The Connecticut effort in year 9 of the Continental Margins Program concentrated on a 13.6-mi2 area south of the Housatonic River. This area was chosen for a side-scan sonar survey because it lies on and adjacent to the bathymetric expressions of two fairly large, subcropping, potential sources of coarse material. Previous seismic work in the area indicated that outcrops or subcrops of these potential source deposits could be delineated using their bathymetric expression. Owing to the limited resolution of the seismic data, a correlation between bottom type and underlying source deposits could not be made with the seismics alone. Results from the November 1993 side-scan survey show that although the source deposits have discernible bathymetric expressions, they are not cropping out as much as expected. As a result, bottom type is not necessarily determined by subcropping deposits in this particular area. Year 10 work was concentrated in Fishers Island Sound, where three areas of potential interest for near-shore gravel resources had previously been identified. These areas were surveyed, during the spring of 1996, using the RoxAnn Seabed Classification System. A small video camera and a Van Veen grab sampler were used to calibrate and verify the RoxAnn data. Although previous sampling had indicated the presence of gravel or gravelly sediment in all of the survey areas, the RoxAnn results showed less gravel than anticipated. Vibrant eelgrass beds and other habitat indicators were detected in all of the survey areas. Given the variable sediment results, and the high habitat potential of the areas surveyed, the likelihood of developing a sand and gravel supply from the near shore of Fishers Island Sound appears quite low.     

Evolution of tuff ring-dome complex: the case study of Cerro Pinto, eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

Cerro Pinto is a Pleistocene rhyolite tuff ring-dome complex located in the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The complex is composed of four tuff rings and four domes that were emplaced in three eruptive stages marked by changes in vent location and eruptive character. During Stage I, vent clearing produced a 1.5-km-diameter tuff ring that was then followed by emplacement of two domes of approximately 0.2 km³ each. With no apparent hiatus in activity, Stage II began with the explosive formation of a tuff ring ~2 km in diameter adjacent to and north of the earlier ring. Subsequent Stage II eruptions produced two smaller tuff rings within the northern tuff ring as well as a small dome that was mostly destroyed by explosions during its growth. Stage III involved the emplacement of a 0.04 km³ dome within the southern tuff ring. Cerro Pinto’s eruptive history includes sequences that follow simple rhyolite-dome models, in which a pyroclastic phase is followed immediately by effusive dome emplacement. Some aspects of the eruption, however, such as the explosive reactivation of the system and explosive dome destruction, are more complex. These events are commonly associated with polygenetic structures, such as stratovolcanoes or calderas, in which multiple pulses of magma initiate reactivation. A comparison of major and trace element geochemistry with nearby Pleistocene silicic centers does not show indication of any co-genetic relationship, suggesting that Cerro Pinto was produced by a small, isolated magma chamber. The compositional variation of the erupted material at Cerro Pinto is minimal, suggesting that there were not multiple pulses of magma responsible for the complex behavior of the volcano and that the volcanic system was formed in a short time period. The variety of eruptive style observed at Cerro Pinto reflects the influence of quickly exhaustible water sources on a short-lived eruption. The rising magma encountered small amounts of groundwater that initiated eruption phases. Once a critical magma:water ratio was exceeded, the eruptions became dry and sub-plinian to plinian. The primary characteristic of Cerro Pinto is the predominance of fall deposits, suggesting that the level at which rising magma encountered water was deep enough to allow substantial fragmentation after the water source was exhausted. Isolated rhyolite domes are rare and are not currently viewed as prominent volcanic hazards, but the evolution of Cerro Pinto demonstrates that individual domes may have complex cycles, and such complexity must be taken into account when making hazard risk assessments.     

Variability of extreme precipitation in coastal river basins of the southern mexican Pacific region

Extreme wet and dry years (± 1 standard deviation, respectively), as well as the top 95 percentile (P95) of daily precipitation events, derived from tropical cyclone (TC) and nontropical cyclone (NTC) rainfall, were analyzed in coastal river basins in Southern Oaxaca, Mexico (Río Verde, Río Tehuantepec, and the Southern Coast). The study is based on daily precipitation records from 47 quality-controlled stations for the 1961 to 1990 period and TC data for the Eastern Tropical Pacific (EPAC). The aim of this study was to evaluate extreme (dry and wet) trends in the annual contribution of daily P95 precipitation events and to determine the relationship of summer precipitation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacifical Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A regionalization based on a rotated principal component analysis (PCA) was used to produce four precipitation regions in the coastal river basins. A significant negative correlation (significance at the 95% level) was only found with ONI in rainfall Region 3, nearest to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wet years, mainly linked to TC-derived P95 precipitation events, were associated with SST anomalies (≥?0.6°C) similar to weak La Niña and Neutral cool conditions, while dry years were associated with SST positive anomalies similar to Neutral warm conditions (≤?0.5°C). The largest contribution of extreme P95 precipitation derived from TCs to the annual precipitation was observed in Region 3. A significant upward trend in the contribution of TC-derived precipitation to the annual precipitation was found only in Region 1, low Río Verde.     

SOIL VARIATION ON NORTH AND SOUTH SLOPE CATENAS ON A KAME IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN

Soils from two catenas on north-and south-facing slopes of a kame were analyzed to determine the effect of lithology, topography, and microclimate on profile development. In loess on the north-facing slope, where microclimate favored CaCO₃ dissolution and clay translocation, pedogenesis was rapid and an A-E-Bt-C profile developed. In contrast, an A-Bt-C profile developed on the south-facing slope. In gravel where limestone/dolostone dissolution was slow, A-C profiles were found and CaCO₃ was depleted to a ≤ 25-cm depth, 20± cm less than reported for similar Michigan soils. Slopewash and runoff are inferred to have caused silt accumulations and greater infiltration at the base of ≥ 20° slopes, resulting in a thicker solum in foot-and toe-slope positions, whereas on slopes of ≤ 7° infiltration and interflow are the dominant processes, resulting in a thicker solum on the transportational midslope. The differences in soil profile development are attributed to sediment facies changes at 25- to 50-cm depth and resulting groundwater movement. [Key words: soil development, soil spatial variability, kame slope catena, Wisconsin.]     

Vibrational and thermodynamic properties of Ni<Subscript>3</Subscript>S<Subscript>2</Subscript> polymorphs from first-principles calculations

We have calculated the compressional, vibrational, and thermodynamic properties of Ni₃S₂ heazlewoodite and the high-pressure orthorhombic phase (with Cmcm symmetry) using the generalized gradient approximation to the density functional theory in conjunction with the quasi-harmonic approximation. The predicted Raman frequencies of heazlewoodite are in good agreement with room-temperature measurements. The calculated thermodynamic properties of heazlewoodite at room conditions agree very well with experiments, but at high temperatures (especially above 500 K) the heat capacity data from experiments are significantly larger than the quasi-harmonic results, indicating that heazlewoodite is anharmonic. On the other hand, the obtained vibrational density of states of the orthorhombic phase at 20 GPa reveals a group of low-frequency vibrational modes which are absent in heazlewoodite. These low-frequency modes contribute substantially to thermal expansivity, heat capacity, entropy, and Grüneisen parameter of the orthorhombic phase. The calculated phase boundary between heazlewoodite and the orthorhombic phase is consistent with high-pressure experiments; the predicted transition pressure is 17.9 GPa at 300 K with a negative Clapeyron slope of −8.5 MPa/K.     

The effect of uncertainty on estimates of hurricane surge hazards

It is shown here that uncertainty can significantly affect estimated surge levels over a wide range of annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). For AEPs in the range of 1 × 10^?2–5 × 10^?2 in the New Orleans area, estimated surge values with and without consideration of uncertainty differ by about 0.5–1.0 m. Similarly, suppression of natural variability, such as using a single value for Mississippi River discharge in surge simulations, rather than allowing the discharge to vary probabilistically, is shown to produce deviations up to 1 m for the 1 × 10^?2 AEP in locations within the mainline river levees in this area. It is also shown that uncertainty can play a critical role in the analysis of very low probability events in the AEP range 1 × 10^?4–1 × 10^?6. Such events are typically used in designs of structures with major societal impacts. It is shown here that, for this range of AEPs along the west coast of Florida, the neglect of uncertainty can under-predict design surge levels by about 20 % compared to estimated surge levels that include uncertainty.     

Constrains on stresses in isotropic homogeneous infinite half-spaces being in welded contact: 2D anti-plane and in-plane cases

Formulas are derived for two-dimensional problems relating stresses across a plane boundary that divides infinite homogeneous half-spaces being in welded contact. The calculations are made for both anti-plane and in-plane stress cases. The results obtained for the former case that involve only two stress components are useful in the analysis of fracture of strike-slip type. For the in-plane case, the relations that link stresses in one half-space with the corresponding homogeneous stresses in the other half-space are presented for arbitrarily oriented shear and normal stresses and for the center of compression (dilatation). The above relations provide a compete set of expressions that, among other things, make it possible to analyze stresses involved in faulting of deep-slip type in an inhomogeneous medium. The quantitative preliminary evaluations based on the results obtained demonstrate the great role of low rigidity media in fracture processes of all kinds within the Earth’s crust.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.