Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling

Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making.     

Sedimentology and geochemistry of an exceptionally preserved last interglacial sapropel S5 in the Levantine Basin (Mediterranean Sea)

A combined study of lithological, geochemical and physical sediment properties is reported from a completely laminated S5 sapropel, recovered in three gravity cores (M40-4 SL67, M51-3 SL103, M51-3 SL104) from the Pliny Trench region of the eastern Mediterranean. The thickness of the studied sapropel S5 varies between 85 and 91 cm and tops most S5-sapropels in the Mediterranean. Based on optical features like color and thickness of laminae, the sapropels were subdivided into thirteen distinct lithostratigraphic zones. These zones, as well as the finer layering pattern within them, could be followed exactly among the three cores, indicating that the processes responsible for this variation acted at least on a regional scale. The sapropel sediment is characterized by exceptionally high porosity, which is strongly correlated with Si/Ca. This relationship implies that the sapropel is in essence an organic-matter rich diatomite and its exceptional thickness can be explained by preservation of diatoms forming a loosely packed sediment fabric. Compared to other S5 sapropels, the preservation of diatoms has apparently led to a twofold increase in the thickness of the sapropel layer. Relative abundances of 10 elements were determined at ultra-high resolution (0.2 mm) by XRF-scanner over the complete length of each sapropel including several cm of enclosing marl. An analysis of the chemical data indicates that the lowermost 13 cm of the sapropel is chemically more similar to the underlying marl and that the sediment chemistry shows different signals at different scales. The strongest pattern is the contrast between the sapropel and the surrounding marl, which is accentuated in elements indicative for redox conditions as well as terrigenous sediment input and productivity. Within the sapropel, a mm- to cm-scale layering is observed. The abundances of many elements are systematically linked to the pattern of these layers, indicating a common origin, related to productivity and/or terrigenous sediment and/or redox conditions. This pattern indicates a link to a regional climatic process, making the S5 sapropel horizon in M40-4 SL67, M51-3 SL103 and M51-3 SL104 a potential high-resolution archive of climatic variability during the last interglacial in the Mediterranean Sea and its adjacent landmasses.     

Geogas transport in fractured hard rock – Correlations with mining seismicity at 3.54 km depth, TauTona gold mine, South Africa

An on-site gas monitoring study has been conducted in the framework of an earthquake laboratory (The International NELSAM–DAFGAS projects) at the TauTona gold mine, South Africa. Five boreholes up to 60 m long were drilled at 3.54 km depth into the highly fractured Pretorius Fault Zone and instruments for chemical and seismic monitoring installed therein. Over the span of 4 years sensitive gas monitoring devices were continuously improved to enable the direct observation of geogas concentration variations in the DAFGAS borehole. The major gas concentrations are constant and air-like with about 78% N₂, 21% O₂, 1% Ar. The geogas components CO₂, CH₄, He and H₂ show the most interesting trends and variations on the minute-by-minute basis and significantly correlate with seismic data, while the ²²²Rn activity remains constant. Time series and cross correlation analysis allow the identification of different gas components (geogas and tunnel air) and the identification of two processes influencing the borehole gas composition: (1) pumping-induced tunnel air breakthrough through networks of initially water-saturated fault fractures; and (2) seismicity induced permeability enhancement of fault fractures to above ∼5 × 10^-10 m². The current set-up of the gas monitoring system is sensitive enough to quantify the resulting geogas transport during periods of intense blasting activities (including recorded blasts with seismic moment ?1 × 10⁹ Nm, located within 1000 m of the cubby) and, it is suggested, also during induced earthquakes, a final goal of the project.     

Heat capacity calculations for Al2O3 corundum and MgSiO3 ilmenite

We have used Kieffer's vibrational model to calculate heat capacities and entropies for Al₂O₃ corundum and MgSiO₃ ilmenite, using available vibrational and elastic data for these phases. The calculated heat capacity for corundum is within 1–2 percent of the experimental values between 100 K and 1,800 K, while that for MgSiO₃ ilmenite is within 1–2 percent of the experimental data between 350 K and 500 K. We have calculated the heat capacity for MgSiO₃ ilmenite from 50 K to 1,800 K, which extends the range of available heat capacity data for this phase. The results of this calculation suggest that there may be differences in the vibrational properties of corundum and MgSiO₃ ilmenite. Finally, we have used the results of our calculation to obtain a transition entropy of near -18.8 J/mol.K for the MgSiO₃ pyroxene-ilmenite reaction.     

Progressive deformation of an evaporite-bearing accretionary complex: SeaMARC I,SeaBeam and piston-core observations from the Mediterranean Ridge

The Mediterranean Ridge is an arcuate ridge of deformed sediment caught up in the convergent plate margin between the African plate and the Aegean. An intensive campaign of SeaMARC I and SeaBeam surveys followed by piston coring has been conducted along the contact between undeformed turbidites of the Sirte Abyssal Plain and folded and faulted sediments of the Mediterranean Ridge. Along the outer edge of the Ridge, surficial sediments have been deformed into sinusoidal ridges and troughs (wavelengths 0.5–2 km, amplitude 20–150 m), which we interpret as folds. In plan view, the ridge and the trough fabric parallels the NW-SE trending regional contours, suggesting that the folds formed in response to compression orthogonal to the Mediterranean Ridge. The outermost ridge is shedding a debris apron out onto the abyssal plain, implying that uplift and deformation are ongoing. We show that the geometry of the outermost folds can be produced by elastic bending of a packet of 5–10 relatively strong layers, each 10–20 m thick, interbedded between weaker layers; we equate the strong layers with gypsum beds in the Messinian upper evaporites. Folding the seafloor from a flat layer into the observed ridge and trough topography would shorten the layer by less than 2%. Two percent shortening (equals two percent thickening) is insufficient to create the observed relief of the Mediterranean Ridge even if the entire sediment column down to basement were involved; we infer that additional shortening/thickening is accommodated by thrust faulting above a decollement at the top of the Messinian salt layer. At distances > 15 km from the deformation front and more than 500 m from the abyssal plain, sharp-edged, fine-grained side-scan lineations with very little vertical relief cut across the kilometer-scale ridge and trough topography. These fine-grained lineations fall in two groups trending N/S to NNE/SSW and ~ENE. We interpret these lineaments as traces of conjugate strike-slip faults formed in the same compressional regime which formed the NW/SE trending folds. The onset of strike-slip faulting may coincide with the cessation of imbricate thrust fan development above the initial salt-controlled decollement surface. The following characteristics of the Mediterranean Ridge are attributed to the presence of evaporites in the incoming sedimentary section: (1) initial deformation by folding rather than thrust faulting; (2) narrow taper; (3) rapid rate of outward growth; (4) karstification.     

Place,gender and the appeal of video lottery terminal gambling: unpacking a focus group study of Montreal youth

Youth gambling has become an important public health issue in Canada and elsewhere owing to the known associations between gambling and delinquency, family dysfunction and suicide. Modern electronic and virtual gambling activities like video lottery terminals (VLTs) may have particular appeal to youth who have been raised in social environments that are increasingly dependent on information and communication technologies. The main objective of the study was to explore why youth gamble and what makes gambling activities like VLTs popular to youth in the places where youth live, study and play. The research is framed within a population health perspective that recognizes the role of social and physical environments in influencing health-related behaviours. Group discussions were conducted with youth to explore the popularity and appeal of gambling and VLTs, and how gambling fits into the daily routines of youth and the spaces they occupy. Methodologically, this research was conscious of responding to calls in the literature to analyze focus groups as an interactive group process rather a collection of individual responses, and to exercise analytic rigour by explicitly making the research team’s positionality and the data collection process transparent. Group discussions revealed gender differences in the appeal of particular gambling activities with young males being more likely to discuss poker, dice, sports-betting and online gambling as exciting social activities, while females described lottery and scratch (instant win) tickets as fun solitary activities. Substantive results point to the need for interventions to address social aspects of gambling that appeal, in particular, to young males potentially through increased provision of healthier alternatives to social engagement and greater attention to young people’s use of space.     

Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin,USA

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the US High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.