Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France

Abstract

Heavy rainfall events often occur in southern French Mediterranean regions during the autumn, leading to catastrophic flood events. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with climatic covariates for these heavy rainfall events is developed herein. A regional sample of events exceeding the threshold of 100 mm/d is built using daily precipitation data recorded at 44 stations over the period 1958–2008. The POT model combines a Poisson distribution for the occurrence and a generalized Pareto distribution for the magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. The selected covariates are the seasonal occurrence of southern circulation patterns for the Poisson distribution parameter, and monthly air temperature for the generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. According to the deviance test, the non-stationary model provides a better fit to the data than a classical stationary model. Such a model incorporating climatic covariates instead of time allows one to re-evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation on a monthly and seasonal basis, and can also be used with climate model outputs to produce future scenarios. Existing scenarios of the future changes projected for the covariates included in the model are tested to evaluate the possible future changes on extreme precipitation quantiles in the study area.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Tramblay, Y., Neppel, L., Carreau, J., and Najib, K., 2013. Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 280–294.     

Electrical properties and geochemistry of carbonate rocks from the Qasr El‐Sagha Formation,El‐Faiyum,Egypt

Understanding petrographical, geochemical and electrical properties of rocks is essential for investigating minerals. This paper presents a study of the petrographical, geochemical and A.C. electrical properties of carbonate rock samples. The samples collected show six lithostratigraphic rock units. Electrical properties were measured using a non‐polarizing electrode at room temperature (～20°C) and a relative atmospheric humidity of ～50% by weight in the frequency range from 42 Hz to 5 MHz. The difference in electrical properties between the samples was attributed to the change in composition and texture between the samples. Electrical properties generally change with many factors (grain size, chemical composition, grain shape and facies). The dielectric constant decreases with frequency and increases with conductor composition. The conductivity increases with the increase of conductor paths between electrodes. Many parameters can contribute to the same result of the electrical properties. The main objective of the present study is to shed more light on the relation between the texture and geochemical composition of measured samples (carbonates that contain clays and quartz grains) through electrical laboratory measurements (conductivity and dielectric constant as a function of frequency).     

Introduction of conditional mean spectrum and conditional spectrum in the practice of seismic safety evaluation in China

This paper aims at implementing and introducing the use of conditional mean spectrum (CMS) and conditional spectrum (CS) as the main input parameters in the practice of seismic safety evaluation (SSE) in China, instead of the currently used uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). For this purpose, a procedure for M-R-epsilon seismic hazard deaggregation in China was first developed. For illustration purposes, two different typical sites in China, with one to two dominant seismic zones, were considered as examples to carry out seismic hazard deaggregation and illustrate the construction of CMS/CS. Two types of correlation coefficients were used to generate CMS and the results were compared over a vibration period range of interest. Ground motion records were selected from the NSMONS (2007–2015) and PEER NGA-West2 databases to correspond to the target CMS and CS. Hazard consistency of the spectral accelerations of the selected ground motion records was evaluated and validated by computing the annual exceedance probability rate of the response spectra and comparing the results to the hazard curve corresponding to each site of concern at different periods. The tools developed in this work and their illustrative application to specific case studies in China are a first step towards the adoption of CMS and CS into the practice of seismic safety evaluation in this country.     

Modelling the effect of temperature on unsaturated soil behaviour

A simple thermohydromechanical (THM) constitutive model for unsaturated soils is described. The effective stress concept is extended to unsaturated soils with the introduction of a capillary stress. This capillary stress is based on a microstructural model and calculated from attraction forces due to water menisci. The effect of desaturation and the thermal softening phenomenon are modelled with a minimal number of material parameters and based on existing models. THM process is qualitatively and quantitatively modelled by using experimental data and previous work to show the application of the model, including a drying path under mechanical stress with transition between saturated and unsaturated states, a heating path under constant suction and a deviatoric path with imposed suction and temperature. The results show that the present model can simulate the THM behaviour in unsaturated soils in a satisfactory way.     

Chemical and isotopic methods for management of artificial recharge in Mazraha Station (Damascus Basin,Syria)

Artificially enhancing recharge rate into groundwater aquifer at specially designed facilities is an attractive option for increasing the storage capacity of potable water in arid and semi‐arid region such as Damascus basin (Syria). Two dug wells (I and II) for water injection and 24 wells for water extraction are available in Mazraha station for artificial recharge experiment. Chemical and stable isotopes (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) were used to evaluate artificial recharge efficiency. 400 to 500*10³ m³ of spring water were injected annually into the ambient shallow groundwater in Mazraha station, which is used later for drinking purpose. Ambient groundwater and injected spring water are calcium bicarbonate type with EC about 880 ± 60 μS/cm and 300 ± 50 μS/cm, respectively. The injected water is under saturated versus calcite and the ambient groundwater is over saturated, while the recovered water is near equilibrium. It was observed that the injection process formed a chemical dilution plume that improves the groundwater quality. Results demonstrate that the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer is estimated around 6.8*10^?4 m/s. The effective diameter of artificial recharge is limited to about 250 m from the injection wells. Mixing rate of 30% is required in order to reduce nitrate concentration below 50 mg/l which is considered the maximum concentration limit for potable water. Deuterium and oxygen‐18 relationship demonstrates that mixing line between injected water and ambient groundwater has a slope of 6.1. Oxygen‐18 and Cl^? plot indicates that groundwater salinity origin is from mixing process, and no dissolution and evaporation were observed. These results demonstrate the efficiency of the artificial recharge experiments to restore groundwater storage capacity and to improve the water quality. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stratigraphy,age and petrography of the Beni Issef successions (External Rif; Morocco): Insights for the evolution of the Maghrebian Chain

In the Beni Issef Massif, nearly 30 km west of Chefchaouen (Morocco), the thickest post-nappe succession within the Rifian sector of the Maghrebian Chain seals the tectonic contact between the Intrarifian External Tanger and Loukkos Units, related to the Rifian External Domain. This succession is very important for the reconstruction of the deformation timing of the Rifian Maghrebids. The age of its base, in fact, is an important constraint for defining an upper boundary to the stacking of both the Intrarifian and Maghrebian Flysch Basin Units, because clasts fed by the Melloussa and Numidian Flysch Nappes are abundant in the conglomerate layers. Field and biostratigraphic analyses pointed out the presence of a Lower Beni Issef Fm, unconformable on the Intrarifian External Tanger and Loukkos Units, and an Upper Beni Issef Fm, unconformable on both the Intrarifian Units and the Lower Beni Issef Fm. The Lower Beni Issef Fm, 150 m thick, consists of lenticular conglomerates with huge blocks in a marly-clayey matrix, followed by marls and minor sandstones. It deposited in a siliciclastic platform, shows a fining upward trend and is affected by metre- to hectometre-sized, locally reversed, folds. Samples collected 45–50 m above the base of the formation resulted not older than Late Tortonian in age, but an older age for the base of the formation cannot be excluded. The Upper Beni Issef Fm, up to 550 m thick, starts with coarse conglomerates followed by medium- to coarse-grained well-bedded sandstones and by grey-blue marls and mudrocks. It indicates deposition in a channelized marine delta, with evolution towards pro-delta pelites, and shows sub-horizontal or gently dipping beds towards the east. Biostratigraphic data indicate a probable Messinian age for this formation. The composition of the arenites of both Lower Beni Issef and Upper Beni Issef Fms is quartzolithic and all samples show a notable content of monocrystalline well-rounded quartz and sedimentary lithic fragments. Detrital modes, all falling in the Quartzose Recycled and Transitional Recycled fields, suggest a provenance from recycling of sedimentary successions, easily recognizable in the Flysch Basin and External Units, mainly the Numidian Nappe sandstones. A Tortonian age of the Lower Beni Issef Fm would agree with the Late Serravallian age of the uppermost beds of the External Tanger Unit and indicate that the most probable age for the stacking of the Intrarifian Units falls in the Late Serravallian-Middle Tortonian time span. The Lower Beni Issef Fm was involved in a compressive tectonic phase testified by north-south striking folds. Later, probably during Messinian, the Upper Beni Issef Fm deposited in a younger intramontane basin, resting on both the Intrarifian Units and the Lower Beni Issef Fm. Successively, the Upper Beni Issef Fm was passively transported piggyback on top of the fold and thrust belt during later tectonic evolution of the Rifian Maghrebids. This tectonic evolution results quite similar to that recognized in the Tellian and Sicilian Maghrebids and also in the southern Apennines.     

Two‐dimensional modelling of ice cover effects for the dynamic analysis of concrete gravity dams

A two‐dimensional numerical model for determining the effects of the presence of an ice cover on the dynamic behaviour of large gravity dams is presented. Analytical predictions are compared to results obtained during a series of extensive dynamic tests on a large gravity dam. Data were obtained during summer and severe winter conditions to investigate the dynamic interactions between the dam, foundation, reservoir and the ice cover. The analysis includes ice‐reservoir interaction as well as the effects of water compressibility, flexible foundation and reservoir bottom absorption. Good agreement with the experimental findings is obtained. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rock magnetic study of basic intrusions and massive sulphides in the Hercynian central Jebilets Massif (Occidental-Meseta), Morocco

This paper describes a multidisciplinary study approach (petrography and rock magnetism) conducted on samples collected from the study area to characterise the magnetic mineralogy and to determine if the magnetisation of both lithologies were induced or retain a remnant component. Petrophysical, mineralogical and geochemical analyses confirm bimodal aspects, particularly in basic rocks; the two magnetic modes depend essentially on the mineralogical and geochemical characteristics of the samples. The ultramafic rocks comprise a highly altered primary mineralogy with chromite and magnetite as magnetic phases. The second type is of mafic composition with a less altered primary mineralogy and essentially magnetite and/or (hemo-ilmenite) as a carrier of magnetic mineralisation. Sulphides are characterised by high concentrations of Cu, Zn and Pb. The mineralogy is composed mainly of pyrrhotite (85% to 90%), sphalerite, galena, chalcopyrite, arsenopyrite and, occasionally, stannite. Monocline pyrrhotite seems to be the magnetic carrier of magnetisation in both Draa Sfar and Koudiat Aïcha. However, we suspect a different amount of hexagonal pyrrhotite as the cause of different magnetic behaviour. Paleomagnetic and thermomagnetic analyses reveal different. The calculated characteristic direction of natural remnant magnetisation for sulphides was used to model the magnetic anomaly of Draa Sfar. The proposed model match the geological features concluded from geological mapping and boreholes. Results from this work can be very useful for any modelling processes of magnetic anomalies suspected due to a sulphide mineralisation in an area with poor outcrops and no presence of boreholes information or of any geological or geochemical data.