Long-term rainfall characteristics in the Mzingwane catchment of south-western Zimbabwe

Rainfall characteristics during the annual rainy season are explored for the Mzingwane catchment of south-western Zimbabwe, for both historic period (1886–1906) and more recent times (1950–2015), based on available daily and monthly precipitation series. Annual and seasonal rainfall trends are determined using the modified Mann-Kendall test, magnitude of trends test and Sen’s slope estimator. Rainfall variability is quantified using the coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index (PCI) and standard precipitation index (SPI). Results suggest that contemporary mean annual rainfall may not have changed from that measured during the historic period of 1886–1906. However, the number of rainy days (≥ 1 mm) has decreased by 34%, thus suggesting much more concentrated and increased rainfall intensity. A notable shift in both the onset and cessation dates of the rainy season is recorded, particularly during the twenty-first century, which has resulted in a significantly reduced (p < 0.05) length of the rainy season. The combination of a reduced number of rainy days (≥ 1 mm) and a shortened rainy season suggests that long intra-season dry spells have become more common through time and have considerable negative consequences for agriculture and wetland ecosystem in the region. In addition, high spatio-temporal rainfall variability and seasonal PCI values indicate strong seasonality in the rainy season. Based on the SPI results, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences rainfall variability. The results further suggest high uncertainty in rain season characteristics, which requires effective planning for water needs.     

Quantifying uncertainties associated with depth duration frequency curves

Uncertainty in depth–duration–frequency (DDF) curves is usually disregarded in the view of difficulties associated in assigning a value to it. In central Iran, precipitation duration is often long and characterized with low intensity leading to a considerable uncertainty in the parameters of the probabilistic distributions describing rainfall depth. In this paper, the daily rainfall depths from 4 stations in the Zayanderood basin, Iran, were analysed, and a generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to the maximum yearly rainfall for durations of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days. DDF curves were described as a function of rainfall duration (D) and return period (T). Uncertainties of the rainfall depth in the DDF curves were estimated with the bootstrap sampling method and were described by a normal probability density function. Standard deviations were modeled as a function of rainfall duration and rainfall depth using 10⁴ bootstrap samples for all the durations and return periods considered for each rainfall station.     

Robust optimisation of CO2 sequestration strategies under geological uncertainty using adaptive sparse grid surrogates

Geologic CO₂ sequestration in deep saline aquifers is a promising technique to mitigate the effect of greenhouse gas emissions. Designing optimal CO₂ injection strategy becomes a challenging problem in the presence of geological uncertainty. We propose a surrogate assisted optimisation technique for robust optimisation of CO₂ injection strategies. The surrogate is built using Adaptive Sparse Grid Interpolation (ASGI) to accelerate the optimisation of CO₂ injection rates. The surrogate model is adaptively built with different numbers of evaluation points (simulation runs) in different dimensions to allow automatic refinement in the dimension where added resolution is needed. This technique is referred to as dimensional adaptivity and provides a good balance between the accuracy of the surrogate model and the number of simulation runs to save computational costs. For a robust design, we propose a utility function which comprises the statistical moment of the objective function. Numerical testing of the proposed approach applied to benchmark functions and reservoir models shows the efficiency of the method for the robust optimisation of CO₂ injection strategies under geological uncertainty.     

Biodegradation of starch blended polyvinyl chloride films by isolated Phanerochaete chrysosporium PV1

The accumulation of plastics in the environment is raising great concerns with respect to long-term environmental, economic and waste management problems. The aim of the present research was to investigate the biodegradability of starch blended polyvinyl chloride films in soil burial and controlled laboratory experiments using selective fungal isolates. Clear surface aberrations as color change and minor disintegration in polyvinyl chloride films were observed after 90 days and later confirmed through scanning electron microscopy. The fungal strains showing prominent growth and adherence on plastic films were isolated. One of the strains showing maximum activity was selected and identified as Phanerochaete chrysosporium PV1 by rDNA sequencing. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance analyses indicated considerable structural changes and transformation in films in terms of appearance of new peaks at 3,077 cm^?1 (corresponding to alkenes) and decrease in intensity of peaks at 2,911 cm^?1 (C–H stretching). It was supported with a significant decrease in the molecular weight of polymer film from 80,275 to 78,866 Da (treated) through Gel permeation chromatography in shake flask experiment. Moreover, the biodegradation of starch blended polyvinyl chloride films was confirmed through release of higher CO₂ (7.85 g/l) compared to control (2.32 g/l) in respirometric method. So fungal strain P. chrysosporium PV1 has great potential for use in bioremediation of plastic waste.     

Hydrocarbon potential of the Sargelu Formation,North Iraq

Microscopic and chemical analysis of 85 rock samples from exploratory wells and outcrops in northern Iraq indicate that limestone, black shale and marl within the Middle Jurassic Sargelu Formation contain abundant oil-prone organic matter. For example, one 7-m (23-ft.)-thick section averages 442 mg?HC/g S2 and 439 °C Tmax (Rock-Eval pyrolysis analyses) and 16 wt.% TOC. The organic matter, comprised principally of brazinophyte algae, dinoflagellate cysts, spores, pollen, foraminiferal test linings and phytoclasts, was deposited in a distal, suboxic to anoxic basin and can be correlated with kerogens classified as type A and type B or, alternatively, as type II. The level of thermal maturity is within the oil window with TAI?=?3^? to 3⁺, based on microspore colour of light yellowish brown to brown. Accordingly, good hydrocarbon generation potential is predicted for this formation. Terpane and sterane biomarker distributions, as well as stable isotope values, were determined for oils and potential source rock extracts to determine valid oil-to-source rock correlations. Two subfamily carbonate oil types—one of Middle Jurassic age (Sargelu) carbonate rock and the other of Upper Jurassic/Cretaceous age—as well as a different oil family related to Triassic marls, were identified based on multivariate statistical analysis (HCA and PCA). Middle Jurassic subfamily A oils from Demir Dagh oil field correlate well with rich, marginally mature, Sargelu source rocks in well MK-2 near the city of Baiji. In contrast, subfamily B oils have a greater proportion of R₂₈ steranes, indicating they were generated from Upper Jurassic/Lower Cretaceous carbonates such as those at Gillabat oil field north of Mansuriyah Lake. Oils from Gillabat field thus indicate a lower degree of correlation with the Sargelu source rocks than do oils from Demir Dagh field. One-dimension petroleum system models of key wells were developed using IES PetroMod Software to evaluate burial-thermal history, source-rock maturity and the timing and extent of petroleum generation; interpreted well logs served as input to the models. The oil-generation potential of sulphur-rich Sargelu source rocks was simulated using closed system type II-S kerogen kinetics. Model results indicate that throughout northern Iraq, generation and expulsion of oil from the Sargelu began and ended in the late Miocene. At present, Jurassic source rocks might have generated and expelled between 70 % and 100 % of their total oil.     

Drought risk assessment using remote sensing and GIS techniques

Beginning with a discussion of drought definitions, this review paper attempts to provide a review of fundamental concepts of drought, classification of droughts, drought indices, and the role of remote sensing and geographic information systems for drought evaluation. Owing to the rise in water demand and looming climate change, recent years have witnessed much focus on global drought scenarios. As a natural hazard, drought is best characterized by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters. An understanding of the relationships between these two sets of parameters is necessary to develop measures for mitigating the impacts of droughts. Droughts are recognized as an environmental disaster and have attracted the attention of environmentalists, ecologists, hydrologists, meteorologists, geologists, and agricultural scientists. Temperatures; high winds; low relative humidity; and timing and characteristics of rains, including distribution of rainy days during crop growing seasons, intensity, and duration of rain, and onset and termination, play a significant role in the occurrence of droughts. In contrast to aridity, which is a permanent feature of climate and is restricted to low rainfall areas, a drought is a temporary aberration. Often, there is confusion between a heat wave and a drought, and the distinction is emphasized between heat wave and drought, noting that a typical time scale associated with a heat wave is on the order of a week, while a drought may persist for months or even years. The combination of a heat wave and a drought has dire socio-economic consequences. Drought risk is a product of a region’s exposure to the natural hazard and its vulnerability to extended periods of water shortage. If nations and regions are to make progress in reducing the serious consequences of drought, they must improve their understanding of the hazard and the factors that influence vulnerability. It is critical for drought-prone regions to better understand their drought climatology (i.e., the probability of drought at different levels of intensity and duration) and establish comprehensive and integrated drought information system that incorporates climate, soil, and water supply factors such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, snow pack, reservoir and lake levels, ground water levels, and stream flow. All drought-prone nations should develop national drought policies and preparedness plans that place emphasis on risk management rather than following the traditional approach of crisis management, where the emphasis is on reactive, emergency response measures. Crisis management decreases self-reliance and increases dependence on government and donors.     

The impact of subsurface geological structure on the groundwater occurrence using geophysical techniques in wadi El Kallabiyyah and wadi As Sabil,East Esna,Eastern Desert,Egypt

The present study aims to explain some hydrogeological problems that are related to geological setting in two wadis: El Kallabiyyah and As Sabil East Esna. For this purpose, land magnetic, vertical electrical soundings, and two-dimensional electrical resistivity imaging profiles were measured. The lithological succession comprises Upper Cretaceous to Quaternary deposits that rest on a Precambrian basement rock. The results of the interpretation of the land magnetic measurements in wadi El Kallabiyyah represent the depth to the basement rock which ranges from 260 to 660 m and increases towards the northeast trend, but in wadi As Sabil, there is a large basin at the center of the wadi with the recorded depth to the basement reaching 1,300 m due to the effect of two normal faults (F1 and F2). The results of the interpretation of the vertical electrical sounding and two-dimensional imaging confirmed the presence of these faults in wadi As Sabil. The results of the geoelectrical measurements in wadi El Kallabiyyah represented the water-bearing layer at the third unit that consists of sands, gravels, boulders, and clays. The presence of clay will affect the potentiality of a drilled well. For wadi As Sabil, the results of geoelectrical measurements led to the lower part of the second unit which acts as a water-bearing layer that consists of sands, boulders, gravels, and clays. It can be concluded that the best site for drilling wells in wadi El Kallabiyyah is at vertical electrical sounding no.5 with a total depth of not less than 230 m. In wadi As Sabil, the drilled wells must be concentrated at the center and the downstream.     

Late Miocene normal faulting beneath the northern Nile Delta: NNW propagation of the Gulf of Suez Rift

The north Egyptian continental margin has undergone passive margin subsidence since the opening of Tethys, but its post-Mesozoic history has been interrupted by tectonic events that include a phase of extensional faulting in the Late Miocene. This study characterizes the geometry and distribution of Late Miocene normal faulting beneath the northern Nile Delta and addresses the relationship of this faulting to the north–northwestwards propagation of Red Sea–Gulf of Suez rifting at this time. Structural interpretation of a 2D grid of seismic reflection data has defined a Tortonian–Messinian syn-rift megasequence, when tied to well data. Normal fault correlations between seismic lines are constrained by the mapping of fault-related folds. Faults are evenly distributed across the study area and are found to strike predominantly NW–SE to NNW–SSE, with some N–S faults in the north. Faults are interpreted to be <10 km in length, typically in the range 3–6 km. This suggests that rifting in the northern Nile Delta did not proceed beyond a continental rift initiation phase, with distributed, relatively small-scale faults. This contrasts with the Gulf of Suez Rift, where faulting continued to a more evolved fault localization phase, with block-bounding faults >25 km in length. Results suggest that future studies could quantify fault evolution from rift initiation to fault linkage to displacement localization, by studying the spatial variation in faulting from the northern Nile Delta, south–southeastwards to the Gulf of Suez Rift.