Natural hazards in Nordic Countries

Compared to many areas of the world, the human losses caused by natural hazards are smaller in Nordic countries. This is mainly due to the low population density in the exposed areas. However, the economic losses are significant and the geohazards picture varies among the countries. The predominant natural hazards in Nordic countries are floods, landslides, and, with the exception of Denmark, snow avalanche. Volcanoes and earthquakes are major geohazards in Iceland, and parts of Norway are susceptible to seismic activity. Slidetriggered tsunamis also represent a threat to parts of the coastal areas of Nordic countries and Greenland.     

Submarine debris flow impact on pipelines — Part I: Experimental investigation

Estimating the impact forces exerted by a submarine debris flow on a pipeline is a challenge, and there is room for considerably more work to advance the state of the art. To this end, an experimental program was performed to investigate the impact on two pipeline installation scenarios: 1) suspended pipeline and 2) laid-on-seafloor pipeline. The results and observations from the experimental investigation are discussed. The definition of Reynolds number was modified for non-Newtonian fluids and an ad hoc method was developed to estimate the drag force exerted by an impact perpendicular to the pipe axis. The method may be used in prototype situations to estimate the drag force from submarine debris flow impact on pipelines. The experimental program was complemented by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analyses, the details of which are discussed in the accompanying paper.     

Arsenic contamination of groundwater: Mitigation strategies and policies

Contamination of groundwater by arsenic from natural geochemical sources is at present a most serious challenge in the planning of large-scale use of groundwater for drinking and other purposes. Recent improvements in detection limits of analytical instruments are allowing the correlation of health impacts such as cancer with large concentrations of arsenic in groundwater. However, there are at present no known large-scale technological solutions for the millions of people—mostly rural—who are potentially affected in developing countries. An overall framework of combating natural resource degradation is combined with case studies from Chile, Mexico, Bangladesh and elsewhere to arrive at a set of strategic recommendations for the global, national and local dimensions of the arsenic crisis. The main recommendations include: the need for flexibility in the elaboration of any arsenic mitigation strategy, the improvement and large-scale use of low-cost and participatory groundwater quality testing techniques, the need to maintain consistent use of key lessons learned worldwide in water supply and sanitation and to integrate arsenic as just one other factor in providing a sustainable water supply, and the following of distinct but communicable tracks between arsenic-related developments and enhanced, long-term, sustainable water supplies.

Global landslide and avalanche hotspots

Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management has high priority in development banks and international agencies working in developing countries. Global hazard and risk maps for landslides and avalanches were developed to identify the most exposed countries. Based on the global datasets of climate, lithology, earthquake activity, and topography, areas with the highest hazard, or “hotspots”, were identified. The applied model was based on classed values of all input data. The model output is a landslide and avalanche hazard index, which is globally scaled into nine levels. The model results were calibrated and validated in selected areas where good data on slide events exist. The results from the landslide and avalanche hazard model together with global population data were then used as input for the risk assessment. Regions with the highest risk can be found in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 km² was found to be greater than one. The model made a reasonable prediction of the landslide hazard in 240 of 249 countries. More and better input data could improve the model further. Future work will focus on selected areas to study the applicability of the model on national and regional scales.     

Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data

In many regions, the absence of a landslide inventory hampers the production of susceptibility or hazard maps. Therefore, a method combining a procedure for sampling of landslide-affected and landslide-free grid cells from a limited landslide inventory and logistic regression modelling was tested for susceptibility mapping of slide- and flow-type landslides on a European scale. Landslide inventories were available for Norway, Campania (Italy), and the Barcelonnette Basin (France), and from each inventory, a random subsample was extracted. In addition, a landslide dataset was produced from the analysis of Google Earth images in combination with the extraction of landslide locations reported in scientific publications. Attention was paid to have a representative distribution of landslides over Europe. In total, the landslide-affected sample contained 1,340 landslides. Then a procedure to select landslide-free grid cells was designed taking account of the incompleteness of the landslide inventory and the high proportion of flat areas in Europe. Using stepwise logistic regression, a model including slope gradient, standard deviation of slope gradient, lithology, soil, and land cover type was calibrated. The classified susceptibility map produced from the model was then validated by visual comparison with national landslide inventory or susceptibility maps available from literature. A quantitative validation was only possible for Norway, Spain, and two regions in Italy. The first results are promising and suggest that, with regard to preparedness for and response to landslide disasters, the method can be used for urgently required landslide susceptibility mapping in regions where currently only sparse landslide inventory data are available.     

Interpretation of Pumping Tests in Heterogeneous Aquifers with Constant Head Boundary

This paper investigates the impact of heterogeneity of the transmissivity field on the interpretation of steady-state pumping test data from aquifer systems delimited by constant head boundaries such as aquifers adjacent to lakes or rivers. Spatially variable transmissivity fields are randomly generated and used to simulate the drawdown due to a pumping well located at different distances from a constant head boundary. The steady-state drawdown simulated at different observation wells are then interpreted using the Hantush method (Hantush 1959). The numerical simulations show that, in contrast to the case of infinite aquifer domains, the interpreted transmissivity varies depending on well locations and the separation distance between pumping well and boundary relative to the correlation length. The ensemble-averaged estimated transmissivity varies between the geometric mean and the arithmetic mean, and can even exceed the arithmetic mean in a narrow domain adjacent to the boundary. It approaches the geometric mean of the underlying transmissivity field only if the distance between the pumping well is more than 20 times the characteristic length of the transmissivity field.     

Hazard analysis of seismic submarine slope instability

To assess the risk associated with a submarine landslide, one must estimate the probability of slope failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the probability of earthquake-induced submarine slope failure (hazard) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, ground response analyses and advanced laboratory tests. The outcomes from these analyses are treated in a probabilistic framework, with analytical simulations using mathematical techniques such as the first-order reliability method, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian updating. Fragility curves of slope failure during the earthquake (co-seismic) and after the earthquake (post-seismic) were developed in this study, and were shown to provide a clear and well-organized procedure to estimate the annual failure probability of a submarine slope under earthquake loading.     

The Waqf as Suwwan crater,Eastern Desert of Jordan: aspects of the deep structure of an oblique impact from reflection seismic and gravity data

The deeply eroded Waqf as Suwwan ring structure was recently discovered to be a large impact, the first identified in the near east. Large-scale reflection seismic structure shows the impact situated high on the northeastern flank of the Jordan Uplift sloping into Wadi Sirhan Basin. If exhumation is linked to the Arabia–Eurasia collision, a likely time window for the impact event may be latest Eocene to Late Oligocene. Impact into a shallow sea seems an optional scenario. Old reflection seismic lines offer limited insight into the deep structure of the rim and part of the central uplift of the complex crater. An important structural clue is provided by a well-resolved seismic horizon of a yet tentative correlation with a Paleozoic black shale. The central gravity high is compatible with a mass surplus by the uplift of denser Paleozoic basement below the central uplift. The gravity model further indicates a ring of dense Paleozoic sediments rising from below into the ring syncline. Seismics show presumably radial synclines in the central uplift which are interpreted by centripetal constrictional flow during crater collapse. Beneath the final crater’s outer boundary, a shallow-dip normal fault zone, subtle seismic structure in uncollapsed footwall segments reveal an asymmetry of strain. The asymmetry is attributed to the cratering flow by an oblique impact directed toward NE. The finding provides independent support to an earlier suggestion of impact obliquity based on vergency of folds exposed on the central uplift.     

Uncertainty quantification in the calibration of a dynamic viscoplastic model of slow slope movements

Most landslides occurring in Italy consist of shallow-translational movements, which involve fine, essentially clayey material. They are usually characterized by low velocities, typically of few centimeters per year. The main triggering factor is hydrologic, since movements are usually strictly connected to groundwater level fluctuations. This slow and periodical trend can be interpreted by a viscous soil response, and in order to catch the actual kinematics of the soil mass behavior, a dynamic analysis should be adopted. This paper discusses the case of the Alverà mudslide, located in the Northern Alps (Italy), for which a very detailed and almost 9-year-long monitoring database, including displacements and groundwater levels records, is available. A well-defined dynamic viscoplastic model, capable of returning a displacement prediction and a mobilized shear strength angle estimate from a groundwater level input, was considered. A first deterministic calibration proved the ability of the model to reproduce the mudslide overall displacements trend if a suitable reduction of the mobilized angle _0\varphi ^{\prime }_{0} is allowed. Then, an uncertainty quantification analysis was performed by measuring the model parameters variability, and all parameters could be represented using a probability density function and a correlation structure. As a consequence, it was possible to define a degree of uncertainty for model predictions, so that an assessment of the model reliability was obtained. The final outcome is believed to represent an important advancement in relation to hazard assessment and for future landslide risk management.     

The Effect of Air Bubbles and Headspace on the Aqueous Concentrations of Volatile Organic Compounds in Sampling Vials

The presence of headspace and air bubbles in volatile organic analysis sampling vials lowers the actual aqueous concentration of these compounds due to the partitioning of solutes into the gaseous phase. This could make the sample invalid for analysis.
In this work, the effects of air bubbles and headspace on the aqueous concentration of 60 volatile organic compounds listed in U.S.Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) Method 8260 were evaluated experimentally and theoretically. The results showed that for air to water ratios of 1 to 20 and less, there was no significant effect on the aqueous concentrations of target organic solutes in the sampling vials. When the air to water ratio was increased to 1 to 10, the recovery rates of four organic compounds were lower than the control. Laboratory experiments on sampling vials showed that the presence of air bubbles or headspace with the volumetric air to water ratios of 1 to 20 and less do not produce any significant effect on the original concentrations for most targeted volatile organic compounds.
The experimental results also indicated that in 40 mL sampling vials with headspace range of 2 to 8 mL, the recovery rates of most volatile organic compounds with high values of Henry's law constant (> 0.01 Atm m³/mol. at 25°C) were larger than the calculated rates.