Non-Poisson probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

The development of the new seismic hazard map of metropolitan Tehran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the non-Poisson recurrence time model. For this model, two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of the region in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the non-Poisson probabilistic estimates of peak ground accelerations over bedrock for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. To carry out the non-Poisson seismic hazard analysis, appropriate distributions of interoccurrence times of earthquakes were used for the seismotectonic provinces which the study region is located and then the renewal process was applied. In order to calculate the seismic hazard for different return periods in the probabilistic procedure, the study area encompassed by the 49.5–54.5°E longitudes and 34–37°N latitudes was divided into 0.1° intervals generating 1,350 grid points. PGA values for this region are estimated to be 0.30–0.32 and 0.16–0.17 g for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance, respectively, in 50 years for bedrock condition.     

Palynology and sedimentology of the Miocene series in the north-east of Tunisia: the climatic and eustatic signature

The Saouaf syncline is located in Tunisia Centre north-east, south-east of the Tunisian dorsal. The sedimentary series, starting with limestone and marlstone, is essentially an alternation of three terms, sandstone, clay and lignite. It is in this basin that the Saouaf Formation was defined as a siliciclastic and lignite series dating back to the Serravallian-Tortonian age. The pollen associations identified in this series allowed for the organization of the vegetation in the era in altitudinal levels (coastal environment, rivers edges, plains, high zones). The evolution of vertical micro-floristic associations through the detailed analysis of the palynological diagram reflects the fluctuation of climatic and ecological parameters during this period. Moreover, the facies associations reflect an evolutionary curve in the depositional environment, showing its fluctuation over time. Accordingly, the synthesis of palynological data, correlated with lithosedimentological ones, suggests the type of environment prevailing at that time. This is a coast-lagoon fluvio-deltaic environment with a significant detrital influence in a subsiding context controlled by a fluctuating but generally warm climate.     

A multiproxy record of Holocene environmental changes in the central Kola Peninsula,northwest Russia

A sediment core from Chuna Lake (Kola Peninsula, northwest Russia) was studied for pollen, diatoms and sediment chemistry in order to infer post‐glacial environmental changes and to investigate responses of the lake ecosystem to these changes. The past pH and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) of the lake were inferred using diatom‐based transfer functions. Between 9000 and 4200 cal. yr BP, slow natural acidification and major changes in the diatom flora occurred in Chuna Lake. These correlated with changes in regional pollen, the arrival of trees in the catchment, changes in erosion, sediment organic content and DOC. During the past 4200 yr diatom‐based proxies showed no clear response to changes in vegetation and erosion, as autochthonous ecological processes became more important than external climate influences during the late Holocene. The pollen stratigraphy reflects the major climate patterns of the central Kola Peninsula during the Holocene, i.e. a climate optimum between 9000 and 5400/5000 cal. yr BP when climate was warm and dry, and gradual climate cooling and an increase in moisture during the past 5400/5000 yr. This agrees with the occurrence of the north–south humidity gradient in Fennoscandia during the Holocene. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Noble gas studies in CAIs from CV3 chondrites: No evidence for primordial noble gases

Abstract— Calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs) were among the first solids in the solar system and were, similar to chondrules, created at very high temperatures. While in chondrules, trapped noble gases have recently been detected, the presence of trapped gases in CAIs is unclear but could have important implications for CAI formation and for early solar system evolution in general. To reassess this question, He, Ne, and Ar isotopes were measured in small, carefully separated and, thus, uncontaminated samples of CAIs from the CV3 chondrites Allende, Axtell, and Efremovka. The ²⁰Ne/²²Ne ratios of all CAIs studied here are <0.9, indicating the absence of trapped Ne as, e.g., Ne‐HL, Ne‐Q, or solar wind Ne. The ²¹Ne/²²Ne ratios range from 0.86 to 0.72, with fine‐grained, more altered CAIs usually showing lower values than coarse‐grained, less altered CAIs. This is attributed to variable amounts of cosmogenic Ne produced from Na‐rich alteration phases rather than to the presence of Ne‐G or Ne‐R (essentially pure ²²Ne) in the samples. Our interpretation is supported by model calculations of the isotopic composition of cosmogenic Ne in minerals common in CAIs. The ³⁶Ar/³⁸Ar ratios are between 0.7 and 4.8, with fine‐grained CAIs within one meteorite showing higher ratios than the coarse‐grained ones. This agrees with higher concentrations of cosmogenic ³⁶Ar produced by neutron capture on ³⁵Cl with subsequent β^?‐decay in finer‐grained, more altered, and thus, more Cl‐rich CAIs than in coarser‐grained, less altered ones. Although our data do not strictly contradict the presence of small amounts of Ne‐G, Ne‐R, or trapped Ar in the CAIs, our noble gas signatures are most simply explained by cosmogenic production, mainly from Na‐, Ca‐, and Cl‐rich minerals.     

Impact of plasma sheath on rocket-based E-region ion measurements

We model the particle velocity distribution functions around the entrance window of the Suprathermal Ion Imager (SII). The SII sensor was mounted on a 1 m boom carried by the scientific payload of NASA rocket 36.234 as part of Joule II mission to investigate Joule heating in the E-region ionosphere. The rocket flew above Northern Alaska on 19 January 2007. The payload was spin-stabilized with a period of 1.6 s, giving an apparent rotation of the ion flow velocity in the frame of reference of the payload. The SII sensor is an electrostatic analyzer that measures two dimensional slices of the distribution of the kinetic energies and arrival-angles of low energy ions. The study is concerned with the interpretation of data obtained from the SII sensor. For this purpose, we numerically investigate ram velocity effects on ions velocity distributions in the vicinity of the SII sensor aperture at an altitudes of approximately 150 km. The electrostatic sheath profiles surrounding the SII sensor, boom and payload are calculated numerically with the PIC code PTetra. It is observed that the direction of the ion flow velocity modifies the plasma sheath potential profile. This in turn impacts the velocity distributions of NO⁺ and \(\mathrm{O}_{2}^{+}\) ions at the aperture of the particle sensor. The velocity distribution functions at the sensor aperture are calculated by using test-particle modeling. These particle distribution functions are then used to inject particles in the sensor, and calculate the fluxes on the sensor microchannel plate (MCP), from which comparisons with the measurements can be made.     

Palaeolimnological evidence for recent climatic change in lakes from the northern Urals, arctic Russia

The recent sediments from two deep arctic lakes, Mitrofanovskoe and Vanuk-ty, situated in the permafrost belt within the Bolshezemelskaya Tundra in the northern Ural region, were studied for diatoms, chironomids, spheroidal carbonaceous particles and stable lead isotopes. The magnitudes and rates-of-change in diatom and chironomid assemblages were numerically estimated. Instrumental climate records were used to assess statistically the amount of variance in diatom and chironomid data explained by temperature. August and September air temperatures have a statistically significant effect on diatom composition at both lakes. At Mitrofanovskoe Lake, major compositional changes in diatom and chironomid assemblages occurred at the turn of the 20th century and might be related to the regional increase in temperature. Chironomid-inferred air temperature also increased by approximately 1 °C since the early 1900s. At both lakes diatom compositional changes, coincident with the increase in June and September temperatures, also occurred in the late 1960s. These compositional changes are correlated with the increase in diatom production, sediment organic content and diatom species richness, and are likely to be a diatom response to the lengthening of the growing season. These changes are also correlated with the circum-Arctic temperature increase from the 1960s. A chironomid response to the late 1960s temperature increase was less pronounced at both lakes. Pollution levels are relatively low and pollution history is unrelated to ecological changes. Both lead isotopes and spheroidal carbonaceous particles show a clear atmospheric pollution signal, peaking in the 1980s.     

Mid-Holocene palaeoclimatic and palaeohydrological conditions in northeastern European Russia: a multi-proxy study of Lake Vankavad

Mid-Holocene changes in vegetation, palaeohydrology and climate were investigated from the sediments of Lake Vankavad in the northern taiga of the Usa Basin, NE European Russia, through the analysis of pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera and diatoms. Lake Vankavad was probably formed at ca. 5000 BP (ca. 5600 cal. BP) and initially it was shallow with a littoral cladoceran fauna. Macrofossil and pollen results suggest that dense Betula-Picea forests grew in the vicinity and the shore was close to the sampling point. At ca. 4600 BP (ca. 5400 cal. BP) the water level rose coincident with the decrease in the density and area of forests, probably caused by cooling climate and accelerated spread of mires. There was also a further rise in the water level at ca. 3500 BP (ca. 3800 cal. BP). The initiation of the lake, followed by two periods of rising water-level, as well as the increase in mire formation, was a consequence of a rise in groundwater level. This probably reflects lower evapotranspiration in a cooling mid-Holocene climate and/or higher precipitation in the lowland area. Also the decreased forest density and area may have contributed to the lower evapotranspiration. It is also possible that permafrost aggradation or changes in peat ecosystems might have affected the hydrological conditions in the area.     

Comparison of marine insolation estimating methods in the adriatic sea

We compare insolation results calculated from two well-known empirical formulas (Seckel and Beaudry’s SB73 formula and the original Smithsonian (SMS) formula) and a radiative transfer model using input data predicted from meteorological weather-forecast models, and review the accuracy of each method. Comparison of annual mean daily irradiance values for clear-sky conditions between the two formulas shows that, relative to the SMS, the SB73 underestimates spring values by 9 W m^-2 in the northern Adriatic Sea, although overall there is a good agreement between the annual results calculated with the two formulas. We also elucidate the effect on SMS of changing the ‘Sun-Earth distance factor (f)’, a parameter which is commonly assumed to be constant in the oceanographic context. Results show that the mean daily solar radiation for clear-sky conditions in the northern Adriatic Sea can be reduced as much as 12 W m^-2 during summer due to a decrease in thef value. Lastly, surface irradiance values calculated from a simple radiative transfer model (GM02) for clear-sky conditions are compared to those from SB73 and SMS. Comparison within situ data in the northern Adriatic Sea shows that the GM02 estimate gives more realistic surface irradiance values than SMS, particularly during summer. Additionally, irradiance values calculated by GM02 using the buoy meteorological fields and ECMWF (The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) meteorological data show the suitability of the ECMWF data usage. Through tests of GM02 sensitivity to key regional meteorological factors, we explore the main factors contributing significantly to a reduction in summertime solar irradiance in the Adriatic Sea.