A free air gravity anomaly contour map of the Irish continental margin

Compilation of currently-available gravity data permits the construction of a free-air anomaly contour map of the continental margin west of Ireland (51–54 N). Major elements in the structure of the margin, previously delineated on the basis of seismic reflection and magnetic surveys, are clearly seen on the FAA contour map, notably the Porcupine Seabight Trough, and Porcupine Ridge. However, contrary to earlier ideas, the gravity data imply that the Seabight Trough extends northwards onto the Slyne Ridge; and the Slyne Trough, formerly regarded as northeasterly prolongation of the Seabight Trough, appears to be a discrete, fault-bounded, feature separated from the latter by a basement ridge. East-west gravity profiles are modelled in terms of thinned crust with the Moho at a minimum depth of 15 km beneath the axis of the Seabight Trough. The models tend to support hypotheses invoking formation of the Seabight Trough by simple westward translation of Porcupine Ridge with respect to the Irish Mainland.     

Method for estimating available groundwater volume of small coral islands

We present a simple modelling method to estimate the volume of available groundwater in the freshwater lens of atoll islands under steady-state conditions. Model inputs include annual rainfall depth, island width for cross-sections along the length of the island, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and depth to the contact between the upper sand aquifer and the lower limestone aquifer. The methodology is tested for nine islands of varying size in the Maldives and Micronesia. Sensitivity analysis indicates that lens volume on large islands typically is governed by the depth to the discontinuity, whereas lens volume for smaller islands is governed by rainfall rate and hydraulic conductivity. Volume curves, which relate lens volume to lens thickness, are developed for each of the nine islands and for three generic island shapes to allow rapid estimation of lens volume given field-estimated lens thickness. The methods presented in this study can be used for any small atoll island.     

Comparison of abstraction scenarios simulated by SWAT and SWAT-MODFLOW

In hydrological modelling of catchments, wherein streams are groundwater-fed, an accurate representation of groundwater processes and their interaction with surface water is crucial. With this purpose, a coupled model was recently developed linking SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) with the fully-distributed groundwater model MODFLOW (Modular Groundwater Flow). In this study, SWAT and SWAT-MODFLOW were applied to a Danish groundwater-dominant catchment, simulating groundwater abstraction scenarios and assessing the benefits and drawbacks of SWAT-MODFLOW. Both models demonstrated good performance. However, SWAT-MODFLOW provided more realistic outputs when simulating abstraction: the decrease in streamflow was similar to the volume of water abstracted, while in SWAT the impact was negligible. SWAT also showed impacts on streamflow only when abstractions were taken from the shallow aquifer, not from the deep aquifer. Overall, SWAT-MODFLOW demonstrated wider possibilities for groundwater analysis, providing more insights than SWAT in supporting decision making in relation to environmental assessment.     

Automated forecasting of volcanic ash dispersion utilizing Virtual Globes

There are over 100 active volcanoes in the North Pacific (NOPAC) region, most of which are located in sparsely populated areas. Dispersion models play an important role in forecasting the movement of volcanic ash clouds by complementing both remote sensing data and visual observations from the ground and aircraft. Puff is a three-dimensional dispersion model, primarily designed for forecasting volcanic ash dispersion, used by the Alaska Volcano Observatory and other agencies. Since early 2007, the model is in an automated mode to predict the movement of airborne volcanic ash at multiple elevated alert status volcanoes worldwide to provide immediate information when an eruption occurs. Twelve of the predictions are within the NOPAC region, nine more within the southern section of the Pacific ring of fire and the others are in Europe and the Caribbean. Model forecasts are made for initial ash plumes ranging from 4 to 20 km altitude above sea level and for a 24-h forecast period. This information is made available via the Puff model website. Model results can be displayed in Virtual Globes for three-dimensional visualization. Here, we show operational Puff predictions in two and three-dimensions in Google Earth^®, both as iso-surfaces and particles, and study past eruptions to illustrate the capabilities that the Virtual Globes can provide. In addition, we show the opportunity that Google Maps^® provides in displaying Puff operational predictions via an application programming web interface and how radiosonde data (vertical soundings) and numerical weather prediction vertical profiles can be displayed in Virtual Globes for assisting in estimating ash cloud heights.     

Modeling Variably Saturated Subsurface Solute Transport with MODFLOW‐UZF and MT3DMS

The MT3DMS groundwater solute transport model was modified to simulate solute transport in the unsaturated zone by incorporating the unsaturated‐zone flow (UZF1) package developed for MODFLOW. The modified MT3DMS code uses a volume‐averaged approach in which Lagrangian‐based UZF1 fluid fluxes and storage changes are mapped onto a fixed grid. Referred to as UZF‐MT3DMS, the linked model was tested against published benchmarks solved analytically as well as against other published codes, most frequently the U.S. Geological Survey's Variably‐Saturated Two‐Dimensional Flow and Transport Model. Results from a suite of test cases demonstrate that the modified code accurately simulates solute advection, dispersion, and reaction in the unsaturated zone. Two‐ and three‐dimensional simulations also were investigated to ensure unsaturated‐saturated zone interaction was simulated correctly. Because the UZF1 solution is analytical, large‐scale flow and transport investigations can be performed free from the computational and data burdens required by numerical solutions to Richards' equation. Results demonstrate that significant simulation runtime savings can be achieved with UZF‐MT3DMS, an important development when hundreds or thousands of model runs are required during parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis. Three‐dimensional variably saturated flow and transport simulations revealed UZF‐MT3DMS to have runtimes that are less than one tenth of the time required by models that rely on Richards' equation. Given its accuracy and efficiency, and the wide‐spread use of both MODFLOW and MT3DMS, the added capability of unsaturated‐zone transport in this familiar modeling framework stands to benefit a broad user‐ship.     

Numerical Modeling of Atoll Island Hydrogeology

We implemented Ayers and Vachers' (1986) inclusive conceptual model for atoll island aquifers in a comprehensive numerical modeling study to evaluate the response of the fresh water lens to selected controlling climatic and geologic variables. Climatic factors include both constant and time-varying recharge rates, with particular attention paid to the effects of El Niño and the associated drought it brings to the western Pacific. Geologic factors include island width; hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost Holocene-age aquifer, which contains the fresh water lens; the depth to the contact with the underlying, and much more conductive, Pleistocene karst aquifer, which transmits tidal signals to the base of the lens; and the presence or absence of a semiconfining reef flat plate on the ocean side. Sensitivity analyses of steady-steady simulations show that lens thickness is most strongly sensitive to the depth to the Holocene-Pleistocene contact and to the hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer, respectively. Comparisons between modeling results and published observations of atoll island lens thicknesses suggest a hydraulic conductivity of approximately 50 m/d for leeward islands and approximately 400 m/d for windward islands. Results of transient simulations show that lens thickness fluctuations during average seasonal conditions and El Niño events are quite sensitive to island width, recharge rate, and hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer. In general, the depletion of the lens during drought conditions is most drastic for small, windward islands. Simulation results suggest that recovery from a 6-month drought requires about 1.5 years.     

Modeling the temperature of the polar mesopause region: Part II—Intra-seasonal monthly oscillations

Measurements show that the polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) can vary, in the zonal mean, with periods around 1 month [Bailey et al., 2005. Observations of polar mesospheric clouds by the Student Nitric Oxide Explorer. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D13203, doi:10.1029/2004JD005422]. This observation has been the impetus for the present paper, where we describe corresponding temperature oscillations generated by the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM). Our numerical results are taken from the 3D and 2D versions of the NSM, which produce inter-annual and long-term variations in the polar mesopause region, as discussed in the accompanying paper (Part I). In the NSM, the intra-seasonal temperature variations with periods around 2 months are generated by the meridional winds that in turn are accelerated by the momentum deposition from small-scale gravity waves (GW) propagating north/south. The wave-driven dynamical process underlying the oscillations is intrinsically non-linear like that generating the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our analysis demonstrates that the seasonal annual and semi-annual variations excite the oscillation frequencies through non-linear cascading.     

Comparison of polar mesospheric cloud measurements from the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size experiment and the solar backscatter ultraviolet instrument in 2007

We compare measurements from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) experiment to the NOAA-17 solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV/2) instrument during the 2007 Northern Hemisphere polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) season. Daily average Rayleigh scattering albedos determined from identical footprints from the CIPS nadir camera and SBUV/2 agree to better than ～5% throughout the season. Average PMC brightness values derived from the two instruments agree to within ±10%. PMC occurrence frequencies are on average ～5% to nearly a factor of two higher in CIPS, depending on latitude. Agreement is best at high latitudes where clouds are brighter and more frequent. The comparisons indicate that AIM CIPS data are valid for scientific analyses. They also show that CIPS measurements can be linked to the long time series of SBUV/2 data to investigate long-term variability in PMCs.