微物理过程分档处理的三维对流云模式研究

在三维完全弹性冰雹云参数化模式动力框架和二维面对称分档模式(微物理过程分档处理)的基础上,建立粒子全分档的三维对流云分档模式.利用建立的分档模式对2000年6月29日美国堪萨斯州的一次超级单体风暴进行了模拟,并将模拟结果与三维冰雹云参数化模式的模拟结果作了对比.结果表明:分档模式可以较好地模拟出强对流云中两支上升气流,模拟得到的最大上升气流速度大于参数化模式;分档模式模拟得到的雷达回波强度、顶高和回波宽度更接近实测.     

对我国2000-2004年发表的“RS”论文的统计分析

本文对近年来国内主要科技期刊上有关“RS”论文进行统计与分析,叙述了近年来我国RS科学研究的现状和水平,揭示了这一学科的应用范围、研究者现状、分布的特点和规律,明确了RS在国民经济建设中的重要地位。对RS的发展阶段给予了评价。     

对构建流域"大水文"理念,推进黄河流域水文一体化管理的思考与探索

在人民治理黄河60周年之际，党和国家领导人分别就治黄工作做出了重要批示，这意味着在实现“维持黄河健康生命”终极目标的进程中，水文工作将要承担的责任更大，提供的基础支撑更全。而以往“平面水文”和“区域水文”等“小水文”的理念已无法满足黄河治理开发的需求。因此，在新的形势下，黄河水文提出了“大水文”的创新理念与发展战略，要在流域内率先实现黄河流域水文一体化管理，从而大幅提升黄河水文的服务能力和管理水平。     

辽西朝阳地区晚侏罗世逆冲断裂及同构造沉积盆地系统

位于晚侏罗世燕山冲断带前缘拗陷盆地群东段的辽西金岭寺羊山盆地和北票盆地，形成于同沉积期的板内挤压变形。两个盆地横断面均显示出北西翼岩层陡立或倒转而南东翼平缓、以及同期碎屑堆积北西翼厚而南西翼薄的特点，具有典型的不对称结构。分别位于两个盆地北西侧的雷家营子和风凰山逆冲断裂带控制了它们的形成和演化。砾石成分统计分析显示，晚侏罗世土城子时期碎屑物质主要来源于辽西的西北部，即“内蒙地轴”上，是响应逆冲推覆活动的产物。两条断裂带及其所控制的盆地，构成了背驮式盆地构造系统，清楚地反映出这一时期的逆冲推覆扩展总体上指向SE方向。辽西地区土城子期盆地的形成和沉积充填是区域地壳缩短或增厚的重要方式之一。     

新疆伽师强震群区基底界面结构特征

用射线分布分析法对伽师强震群区的高分辨折射地震剖面资料进行了更进一步的分析处理， 得到了伽师强震群区更完整的基底界面结构特征. 结果表明，在伽师强震群区地壳上部存在两个明显的结构界面:第一个界面的结构连续、完整，其埋深变化不大， 在2.6～3.3 km之间，为一向天山方向逐渐抬升、 近平直的倾斜界面；第二个界面的埋深变化较大， 在8.5～11.8 km之间，为古老的塔里木盆地结晶基底. 在约37 km桩号附近结晶基底有近2.5 km的深度突变， 推断可能是伽师强震群区超基底断裂所致. 以该断裂为界，结晶基底分为西南、东北两段. 每段内界面的埋深变化不大， 西南段的埋深约11.5 km， 东北段的埋深约为8.5～9.0 km，该段在从西南向东北整体抬升的背景上略有上隆，反映出在塔里木地块西北缘特殊的构造环境下上部地壳的变形特征.      

Remote sensing research issues of the National Land Use Change Program of China

In 1999, the Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR) of China launched the National Land Use Change Program especially to monitor the scale and distribution of urban expansion and the decrease in cultivated land through remote sensing technology. This Program has been carried out annually and continuously for seven years since then and played an important role in the policy-making of MLR about land management and planning. This paper gives an overview about this Program and discusses several research issues. First, the remote sensing data sources and other ancillary data used in this Program are presented. The approaches for image preprocessing, i.e. radiometric normalization, image geometric rectification and image fusion are then introduced with an emphasis on the algorithm development for image registration. Second, land use change detection technique is the most critical and complex aspect of the Program. The methodologies for change detection using either bi-temporal image pair or one existing land use map and one remotely sensed image are detailed. Third, since the data of land use changes derived from remote sensing will be operationally used for local and central government, field validation and accuracy assessment are crucial to ensure the reliability of change detection results. The strategy of field work and the resulting accuracy evaluations is presented. The land use and change information derived from remotely sensed data has wide applications for land management, including land use database updating, verification of land use planning and monitoring of national high-tech parks. Last, suggestions on how to make full use of the images and change detection result, to improve the consistency of land use classification and to develop change detection algorithms for diverse and complex remote sensing data are given.     

GIS空间目标的广义Hausdorff距离模型

分析了GIS中常用的空间距离度量及其存在的问题，这些距离度量没有顾及空间目标的整体形状、位置分布等特征。基于此，引入了Hausdorff距离的概念，给出了Hausdorff距离的计算方法，分析指出了Hausdorff距离容易受空间目标局部几何形状的影响。进而从统计学的角度分析了现有的距离度量并不能有效地表达空间目标间距离的整体分布，并提出了一种广义Hausdorff距离模型，这种距离模型能够度量空间目标间距离分布的中心趋势和离散度。实际算例证明了此模型在GIS环境下的实现方法。     

西天山卡拉达湾地区铀及多金属综合找矿方向研究

卡拉达湾地区位于新疆北天山西段,属于中亚造山区,是在前寒武纪基底陆壳裂解的基础上发展起来的陆间型造山带,是铀及多金属成矿的重要区域。本文在前人工作的基础上,依据地面磁测、地面伽玛总量测量结果,总结分析了卡拉达湾地区磁场、放射性场、构造、矿化蚀变特征与铀及多金属成矿的关系,并圈定了铀及多金属找矿有利地段各2处,为西天山卡拉达湾地区的铀及多金属矿找矿工作提供方向。     

震源孕育的追赶模式

本文提出了一种一维震源孕育模型。用数学物理方法分析了该模型在地震前的孕育过程和各种物理量的变化规律,提出了震源孕育的追赶模式。追赶模式对纵波速度、地壳运动的前兆异常可作出解释,说明该模式是研究地震前兆的一种可能的力学基础.     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.