基于偏移追踪的青藏高原卓琼冰川流速监测及成因分析

冰川作为地球系统中重要的组成部分,是全球气候变化的敏感指示器和调节器.冰川运动的遥感监测也是进行冰川研究的重要内容.本文主要采用偏移追踪的方法,利用2003-2010年期间7对雷达单视复数数据监测了青藏高原珠穆朗玛峰地区的卓琼冰川运动情况.经验证,本研究获得的冰川流速结果可靠.卓琼冰川的流向自西向东,流速自冰川末端向上游积累区逐渐增加,流速大小主要来自距离向的贡献.研究结果显示,卓琼冰川在2003-2005年期间流速较大,最大流速达到45 m·a~(-1),而在2005-2010年期间流速有所降低,最大流速在35~40 m·a~(-1)范围内波动;卓琼冰川年际间流速变化基本一致,冰川中部存在流速突变情况,突变幅度为3~7 m·a~(-1),但该尺度的突变并不会影响卓琼冰川的总体运动趋势.此外,本文还分析了气象以及地理位置因素对卓琼冰川运动的影响.     

Cyclic behavior and failure mechanism of self‐centering energy dissipation braces with pre‐pressed combination disc springs

A new type of bracing system composed of friction energy dissipation devices for energy dissipation, pre‐pressed combination disc springs for self‐centering and tube members as guiding elements is developed and experimentally studied in this paper. The mechanics of this system are explained, the equations governing its hysteretic responses are outlined and large‐scale validation tests of two braces with different types of disc springs are conducted under the condition of low cyclic reversed loading. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed bracing system exhibits a stable and repeatable flag‐shaped hysteretic response with an excellent self‐centering capability and effective energy dissipation throughout the loading protocol. Furthermore, the maximum bearing force and stiffness are predicted well by the equations governing its mechanical behavior. Fatigue and destructive test results demonstrate that the proposed bracing system can maintain stable energy dissipation and self‐centering capabilities under large deformation cyclic loading even when the tube members exceed the elastic limit and that a larger bearing capacity is achieved by the system that has disc springs without a bearing surface. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

天目湖流域丘陵山区典型土地利用类型氮流失特征

天目湖丘陵山区农业综合开发持续推进,大量林地转变为茶园,迫切需要认识茶园扩张对流域氮流失的影响.本研究选取茶园、次生马尾松林和毛竹林开展自然降雨条件下的径流小区实验,分析天目湖丘陵山区典型用地类型径流氮流失规律,为评估丘陵山区综合开发的水环境影响提供实测参数.研究表明:茶园、次生马尾松林和毛竹林地表径流TN浓度分别为11.25、2.83和3.60 mg/L,均以溶解态为主;壤中流TN浓度分别为27.16、3.59和1.06 mg/L,茶园和次生马尾松林均以溶解性无机氮(尤其是硝态氮)为主,毛竹林以溶解性有机氮为主;茶园、次生马尾松林和毛竹林的小区尺度地表径流系数均不到0.03,壤中流是丘陵山区径流的主要来源;茶园开发加剧了丘陵山区的氮素流失,茶园径流TN流失强度高达103.08 kg/(hm²·a),分别是次生马尾松林和毛竹林的7.6和23.2倍,壤中流贡献了流失总量的86.7%~99.7%.防治茶园径流氮流失需重点关注壤中流输出,在减量施肥的基础上,采取坡脚构建毛竹林生态缓冲带/在小流域出口布设塘坝等原位拦截措施,实现流域氮流失综合防控.     

基于EMD-AR谱的3C 273光变周期分析

光变是Blazar最显著的观测特征之一,有的光变呈准周期性. Blazar周期光变可能为其中心黑洞和吸积盘等内部物理结构提供重要信息.因此,周期分析对于讨论Blazar的光变有重要意义.结合经验模态分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition, EMD)和自回归(Auto-regressive, AR)模型谱估计方法的优点,提出了一种基于EMD-AR谱的组合光变周期分析新方法.先对观测数据进行EMD分解,得到各阶模态分量,并计算其与原始光变曲线的相关系数,再取相关度高的分量求和后估算AR谱,最后将此功率谱的周期分析方法用于天体的光变数据分析.讨论了EMD-AR谱方法的原理和应用步骤,并用此方法对类星体3C 273在1887—2016年的观测数据进行了分析,得到3C 273的长时标周期分别为:21.23、13.51、11.02、5.51、4.69、3.79、2.76 yr,与文献中常用方法的分析结果有很好的一致性;短时标周期分别为:(30±1)、(15±0.3)、(7.5±0.2)、(10±0.1)、(5±0.6)、(6±0.4)和(3±0.5) min,此结果未见相关...     

江西地区地方性震级的量规函数与台基校正值研究

本文采用《江西测震台网地震观测报告》,选取2007年10月~2015年12月所记录的499次M_L≥1.5地震事件,对各子台测定震级与台网平均震级偏差进行定量的统计分析,从震级偏差频次分布、量规函数、台基、方位角等方面分析产生震级偏差的原因。在对量规函数和台基进行校正后,震级偏差绝对值在0.2以内的样本数达到了68.6%,并给出了适合江西地区的量规函数和台基校正值。     

Incorporating probabilistic approach into local multi-criteria decision analysis for flood susceptibility assessment

Flood risk management can be enhanced by integrating geographic information system (GIS) with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). However, the conventional, deterministic MCDA methods ignore uncertainty in the decision-making process and fail to account for local variability in criteria values and preferences. Therefore, a spatially explicit MCDA model which effectively incorporates spatial heterogeneity is required. In this paper, a probabilistic or stochastic MCDA method which incorporates the uncertainty into a local weighted linear combination (WLC) was utilized to evaluate flood susceptibility; and an application case in Gucheng County, Central China, was developed. A GIS database of geomorphological and hydro-meteorological criteria contributing to flood susceptibility analysis was constructed using six conditioning factors: digital elevation model (DEM), slope (SL), maximum three-day precipitation (M3DP), topographic wetness index (TWI), distance from the river (DR), and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN). The results of local WLC were compared with those of the global WLC. It shows that the local WLC model can provide much more valuable information about the spatial patterns of criterion values, ranges, weights, trade-offs and overall scores, whereas the global WLC can only depict the spatial distribution of criterion values and overall scores. The local WLC can also help to prioritize the most susceptible locations within a neighborhood when navigating the disaster assistance process. Moreover, the uncertainty analysis of criteria weights increases the degree of confidence in the model output. It is concluded that the presented approach can provide more insights and understanding of the nature of the flood susceptibility than global WLC.     

应急演练中基于G-R关系的主余型地震余震震级模拟

在现有的日常地震演练过程中,与应急救援密切相关的地震余震信息产品较为缺乏,直接影响发震构造的判断以及影响场修正等关键环节。本文从计算机系统提供的均匀分布随机数出发,运用反函数法模拟生成余震序列,并进行系统检验,证实该方法产生的余震序列满足G-R频次关系。模拟生成的余震震级数据既有助于增强地震应急救援演练的现实性,也有助于丰富地震应急宣传产品,提升地震部门的履职能力。     

基于12322平台的江苏省地震应急灾情速报系统的设计与应用

通过分析地震应急救援工作中对灾情信息的需求,提出了“地震应急灾情”的概念,设计了基于12322平台的江苏省地震应急灾情速报系统。本文详细介绍了该系统的设计框架、基本功能和应用效果。系统主要包括短信和微信两大模块,短信模块主要面向非地震系统人员,通过手机短信形式向社会灾情速报员发送灾情邀请短信,灾情速报员只需简单回复灾情代码“1”—“4”即可。微信模块主要面向地震系统工作人员,通过微信企业号“苏震12322”自动推送地震信息并完成灾情收集工作。经过近1年的试运行,系统能够在震后迅速完成灾情信息的收发与数据处理工作,并以“天地图”为地理底图实时直观地展示已上报的灾情信息。     

Oceanic plate subduction history in the western Pacific Ocean: Constraint from late Mesozoic evolution of the Tan-Lu Fault Zone

The NE- to NNE-striking Tan-Lu Fault Zone (TLFZ) is the largest fault zone in East China, and a typical representative for the circum-Pacific tectonics. Its late Mesozoic evolution resulted from subduction of the Paleo-Pacific Plate, and can be used for indication to the subduction history. The TLFZ reactivated at the end of Middle Jurassic since its origination in Middle Triassic. This phase of sinistral motion can only be recognized along the eastern edge of the Dabie-Sulu orogenis, and indicates initiation of the Paleo-Pacific (Izanagi) Plate subduction beneath the East China continent. After the Late Jurassic standstill, the fault zone experienced intense sinistral faulting again at the beginning of Early Cretaceous under N-S compression that resulted from the NNW-ward, low-angle, high-speed subduction of the Izanagi Plate. It turned into normal faulting in the rest of Early Cretaceous, which was simultaneous with the peak destruction of the North China Craton caused by backarc extension that resulted from rollback of the subducting Izanagi Plate. The TLFZ was subjected to sinistral, transpressive displacement again at the end of Early Cretaceous. This shortening event led to termination of the North China Craton destruction. The fault zone suffered local normal faulting in Late Cretaceous due to the far-field, weak backarc extension. The late Mesozoic evolution of the TLFZ show repeated alternation between the transpressive strike-slip motion and normal faulting. Each of the sinistral faulting event took place in a relatively short period whereas every normal faulting event lasted in a longer period, which are related to the subduction way and history of the Paleo-Pacific Plates.     

Hydrologic implications of the isotopic kinetic fractionation of open-water evaporation

The kinetic fractionation of open-water evaporation against the stable water isotope H_2 ~(18)O is an important mechanism underlying many hydrologic studies that use ~(18)O as an isotopic tracer. A recent in-situ measurement of the isotopic water vapor flux over a lake indicates that the kinetic effect is much weaker(kinetic factor 6.2‰) than assumed previously(kinetic factor14.2‰) by lake isotopic budget studies. This study investigates the implications of the weak kinetic effect for studies of deuterium excess-humidity relationships, regional moisture recycling, and global evapotranspiration partitioning. The results indicate that the low kinetic factor is consistent with the deuterium excess-humidity relationships observed over open oceans.The moisture recycling rate in the Great Lakes region derived from the isotopic tracer method with the low kinetic factor is a much better agreement with those from atmospheric modeling studies than if the default kinetic factor of 14.2‰ is used. The ratio of transpiration to evapotranspiration at global scale decreases from 84±9%(with the default kinetic factor) to 76±19%(with the low kinetic factor), the latter of which is in slightly better agreement with other non-isotopic partitioning results.