易县地震台四分量钻孔应变观测震前异常特征

通过对河北易县地震台钻孔应变资料进行处理,发现在2014年9月6日涿鹿4.3级和2015年9月14日昌黎4.2级地震前,该台四分量钻孔应变观测到显著前兆异常变化,与2012年5月28日唐山4.8级地震前出现的异常相似度较高,异常形态均表现为"来快去慢",均在极值附近维持数日后,逐渐恢复原值过程中发生地震。     

Complexity analysis of precipitation using the Lempel–Ziv algorithm and a multi-scaling approach: a case study in Jilin province,China

Precipitation is an important part of the hydrologic cycle, and its complexity is closely related to surface runoff and changing groundwater dynamics, which in turn influences the accuracy of precipitation forecasts. In this study, we used the Lempel–Ziv algorithm (LZA) and a multi-scaling approach to assess precipitation complexity for 1958–2011 by analyzing time series data from 28 gauging stations located throughout Jilin province, China. The spatial distribution of normalized precipitation complexity was measured by LZA, a symbolic dynamics algorithm, and by a multi-scaling approach, which is described by fractals. In addition, the advantages and limitations of these two methods were investigated. The results indicate that both methods are applicable and consistent for calculating precipitation complexity, and that the degree of relief is a primary factor controlling precipitation complexity in the mountainous area; in the plain terrain, however, the prominent influencing factor is climate.     

Multi-models for SPI drought forecasting in the north of Haihe River Basin,China

Drought is one of the most devastating climate disasters. Hence, drought forecasting plays an important role in mitigating some of the adverse effects of drought. Data-driven models are widely used for drought forecasting such as ARIMA model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, wavelet neural network (WANN) model, support vector regression model, grey model and so on. Three data-driven models (ARIMA model; ANN model; WANN model) are used in this study for drought forecasting based on standard precipitation index of two time scales (SPI; SPI-6 and SPI-12). The optimal data-driven model and time scale of SPI are then selected for effective drought forecasting in the North of Haihe River Basin. The effectiveness of the three data-models is compared by Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test, Kendall rank correlation, and the correlation coefficients (R²). The forecast results shows that the WANN model is more suitable and effective for forecasting SPI-6 and SPI-12 values in the north of Haihe River Basin.     

2014年8月云南鲁甸MS 6.5地震典型地表破裂特征

北京时间2014年8月3日16时30分,云南省鲁甸县发生了M_S 6.5地震,本次地震的发震构造为包谷垴-小河断裂。野外调查发现,王家坡不稳定斜坡上的地表破裂在整个破裂带中比较具有代表性,其地表破裂带整体走向N45°W-N50°W,并且由剪切破裂、张剪切破裂、压剪切破裂、张性破裂以及鼓包等典型地表破裂组成。其中左、右地表破裂边界与发震断层的出露位置一致,由断层错动造成;而部分地表破裂与断层的位置不重合,其成因分为2种,一种是发震断层导致的一些次级地表破裂,另一种是地震引发的滑坡后缘破裂。地表破裂类型和基本组合特征显示出王家坡潜在不稳定斜坡上的地表破裂带具有左旋走滑的性质。     

Near-source noise suppression of AMT by compressive sensing and mathematical morphology filtering

In deep mineral exploration, the acquisition of audio magnetotelluric (AMT) data is severely affected by ambient noise near the observation sites; This near-field noise restricts investigation depths. Mathematical morphological filtering (MMF) proved effective in suppressing large-scale strong and variably shaped noise, typically low-frequency noise, but can not deal with pulse noise of AMT data. We combine compressive sensing and MMF. First, we use MMF to suppress the large-scale strong ambient noise; second, we use the improved orthogonal match pursuit (IOMP) algorithm to remove the residual pulse noise. To remove the noise and protect the useful AMT signal, a redundant dictionary that matches with spikes and is insensitive to the useful signal is designed. Synthetic and field data from the Luzong field suggest that the proposed method suppresses the near-source noise and preserves the signal well; thus, better results are obtained that improve the output of either MMF or IOMP.     

The effect of seafloor topography in the Southern Ocean on tabular iceberg drifting and grounding

Antarctic tabular icebergs are important active components in the ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system. Seafloor topography is the key factor that affects the drifting and grounding of icebergs, but it has not been fully investigated. This study analyzes the impact of seafloor topography on the drifting and grounding of Antarctic tabular icebergs using Bedmap-2 datasets and iceberg route tracking data from Brigham Young University. The results highlight the following points. (1) The quantitative distributions of iceberg grounding events and the tracking points of grounded icebergs are mainly affected by iceberg draft and reach their peak values in sea water with depths between 200 m and 300 m. The peak tracking point number and linear velocity of free-drifting icebergs are found in the Antarctic Slope Front (water depth of approximately 500 m). (2) The area of possible grounding regions of small-scale icebergs calved from ice shelf fronts accounts for 28% of the sea area at water depths less than 2000 m outside the Antarctic coastline periphery (3.62 million km²). Their spatial distribution is mainly around East Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The area of possible grounding regions of large tabular icebergs with long axes larger than 18.5 km (in water depths of less than 800 m) accounts for 74% of the sea area. (3) The iceberg drifting velocity is positively correlated with ocean depth in areas where the depth is less than 2000 m (R=0.85, P<0.01). This result confirms the effect of water depth variations induced by seafloor topography fluctuations on iceberg drifting velocity.     

Snowdrift effect on snow deposition: Insights from a comparison of a snow pit profile and meteorological observations in east Antarctica

A high-frequency and precise ultrasonic sounder was used to monitor precipitated/deposited and drift snow events over a 3-year period(17 January 2005 to 4 January 2008) at the Eagle automatic weather station site,inland Antarctica.Ion species and oxygen isotope ratios were also generated from a snow pit below the sensor.These accumulation and snowdrift events were used to examine the synchronism with seasonal variations of δ~(18)O and ion species,providing an opportunity to assess the snowdrift effect in typical Antarctic inland conditions.There were up to 1-year differences for this 3-year-long snow pit between the traditional dating method and ultrasonic records.This difference implies that in areas with low accumulation or high wind,the snowdrift effect can induce abnormal disturbances on snow deposition.The snowdrift effect should be seriously taken into account for high-resolution dating of ice cores and estimation of surface mass balance,especially when the morphology of most Antarctic inland areas is similar to that of the Eagle site.     

A NEW FINDING OF SURFACE RUPTURE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1936 LINGSHAN M6(3/4) EARTHQUAKE,GUANGXI, CHINA

On April 1, 1936, an M6(3/4) earthquake occurred on the Fangcheng-lingshan Fault. This event is the biggest historical earthquake on the coastal seismic zone, South China ever. But so far, no any findings about the surface rupture of this event have been reported. This paper is the first to find several intact surface rupture zones associated with the 1936 Lingshan seismic event, in the areas of Gaotang, Jiaogengping etc. on the northeast segment of the Fangcheng-Lingshan Fault. According to the field work, the surface rupture stretches to 10km and distributes along NE direction in front of Luoyang Mountain, represented by earthquake scarp, extensional fracture, dextrally faulted gully and river system etc. The characteristics of surface ruptures and faulted landforms indicate that the surface rupture is of normal-dextral strike slip faulting. The trenching on this fault exposed that at least three seismic events have been recorded, including two historical earthquake events and the latest one is the 1936 Lingshan M6(3/4) earthquake. These surface rupture zones are the key to the detection of seismogenic structure and the re-estimate of magnitude of this event. The new finding of these surface rupture zones would be particularly significant for the detection of the seismogenic structure of Lingshan M6(3/4) earthquake.     

基于二次场的可控源电磁法三维有限元-无限元数值模拟

本文提出了一种新的混合有限元-无限元三维可控源电磁法(CSEM)问题快速高精度正演模拟算法.首先从电场双旋度方程出发,推导了水平电偶极子源的二次场边值问题,采用无限元代替截断边界条件和有限元离散内部计算区域的新策略,达到减小计算区域的目的,基于并行直接求解技术,实现多源CSEM问题的快速精确求解.其次,通过层状解析模型测试,一方面验证了新算法的正确性,另一方面通过与其他三种已知CSEM问题求解策略进行对比,表明了本文提出的基于二次场有限元-无限元算法具有离散区域小、求解速度快和计算精度高等优点.最后,通过3D模型计算,清晰直观地模拟了场源阴影效应,为野外数据的处理与解释提供指导.     

基于不等式约束的三维电阻率探测混合反演方法

三维电阻率探测的线性反演和非线性反演中均存在着多解性的固有难题.电阻率线性反演方法的效率较高,但反演结果对初始模型的依赖性较强,易陷入局部极小;而非线性反演方法不依赖初始模型,但搜索效率极低,尚未见到关于三维电阻率非线性反演的文献.针对上述问题,融合线性与非线性反演方法的互补优势,提出了最小二乘法(线性方法)与改进遗传算法(非线性方法)相结合的混合反演方法的概念和思想.首先,提出了将介质电阻率变化范围作为不等式约束引入反演方程的思路,以实现压制多解性、提高可靠性的目标.提出了宽松不等式约束和基于钻孔推断的局部严格不等式约束的获取及定义方法.在此基础上,分别提出了基于不等式约束的最小二乘线性反演方法和遗传算法非线性反演方法.其次,对于遗传算法在变异搜索方向控制、初始群体产生等方面进行了改进,优化了其搜索方向和初始群体多样性.然后,提出了混合反演方法及其实现方案,利用改进遗传算法进行第一阶段反演,发挥其对初始模型的依赖程度低的优势,搜索到最优解附近的空间,输出当前最优个体;利用最小二乘法进行第二阶段反演,将遗传算法得到的当前最优个体作为初始模型,在最优解附近空间执行高效率的局部线性搜索,最终实现地电结构的三维成像.最后,开展了合成数据与实际工程算例验证,与传统最小二乘方法进行了对比,发现混合反演方法在压制多解性、摆脱初始模型依赖和提高反演效果方面有较好效果.