Spatial drought reconstructions for central High Asia based on tree rings

Spatial reconstructions of drought for central High Asia based on a tree-ring network are presented. Drought patterns for central High Asia are classified into western and eastern modes of variability. Tree-ring based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) are presented for both the western central High Asia drought mode (1587–2005), and for the eastern central High Asia mode (1660–2005). Both reconstructions, generated using a principal component regression method, show an increased variability in recent decades. The wettest epoch for both reconstructions occurred from the 1940s to the 1950s. The most extreme reconstructed drought for western central High Asia was from the 1640s to the 1650s, coinciding with the collapse of the Chinese Ming Dynasty. The eastern central High Asia reconstruction has shown a distinct tendency towards drier conditions since the 1980s. Our spatial reconstructions agree well with previous reconstructions that fall within each mode, while there is no significant correlation between the two spatial reconstructions.     

Induced Temperature Gradients to Examine Groundwater Flowpaths in Open Boreholes

Techniques for characterizing the hydraulic properties and groundwater flow processes of aquifers are essential to design hydrogeologic conceptual models. In this study, rapid time series temperature profiles within open‐groundwater wells in fractured rock were measured using fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FO‐DTS). To identify zones of active groundwater flow, two continuous electrical heating cables were installed alongside a FO‐DTS cable to heat the column of water within the well and to create a temperature difference between the ambient temperature of the groundwater in the aquifer and that within the well. Additional tests were performed to examine the effects of pumping on hydraulic fracture interconnectivity around the well and to identify zones of increased groundwater flow. High‐ and low‐resolution FO‐DTS cable configurations were examined to test the sensitivities of the technique and compared with downhole video footage and geophysical logging to confirm the zones of active groundwater flow. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of this new technique for rapid characterization of fracture zones in open boreholes. The combination of the FO‐DTS and heating cable has excellent scope as a rapid appraisal tool for borehole construction design and improving hydrogeologic conceptual models.     

Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.     

Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa

Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term “climate security” vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four “baskets” or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events—dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days—coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan.     

Field survey of the East Java earthquake and tsunami of June 3, 1994

A field survey of the June 3, 1994 East Java earthquake tsunami was conducted within three weeks, and the distributions of the seismic intensities, tsunami heights, and human and house damages were surveyed. The seismic intensities on the south coasts of Java and Bali Islands were small for an earthquake with magnitudeM 7.6. The earthquake caused no land damage. About 40 minutes after the main shock, a huge tsunami attacked the coasts, several villages in East Java Province were damaged severely, and 223 persons perished. At Pancer Village about 70 percent of the houses were swept away and 121 persons were killed by the tsunami. The relationship between tsunami heights and distances from the source shows that the Hatori's tsunami magnitude wasm=3, which seems to be larger for the earthquake magnitude. But we should not consider this an extraordinary event because it was pointed out byHatori (1994) that the magnitudes of tsunamis in the Indonesia-Philippine region generally exceed 1–2 grade larger than those of other regions.     

Toxic Cyanobacteria in Greek Freshwaters, 1987—2000: Occurrence,Toxicity, and Impacts in the Mediterranean Region

In a survey in Greece from 1987 to 2000 hepatotoxic cyanobacterial blooms were observed in 9 out of 33 freshwaters. Microcystins (MCYSTs) were detected by HPLC in 7 of these lakes, and the total MCYST concentration per scum dry weight ranged from 50.3 to 1638 ± 464 μg g^—1. Cyanobacterial genera (Microcystis, Anabaena, Anabaenopsis, Aphanizomenon, Cylindrospermopsis) with known toxin producing taxa were present in 31 freshwaters. From our data and a review of the literature, it would appear that Mediterranean countries are more likely 1) to have toxic cyanobacterial blooms consisting of Microcystis spp. and 2) to have higher intracellular MCYST concentrations. A case study in Lake Kastoria is used to highlight seasonal patterns of cyanobacterial and MCYST‐LR occurrence and to assess cyanotoxin risk. Cyanobacterial biovolume was high (> 11 μL L^—1) throughout the year and was in excess of Guidance Level 2 (10 μL L^—1) proposed by WHO for recreational waters and Alert Level 2 for drinking water. Further, surface water samples from April to November exceeded Guidance Level 3, with the potential for acute cyanobacterial poisoning. Intracellular MCYST‐LR concentrations (max 3186 μg L^—1) exceeded the WHO guideline for drinking water (1 μg L^—1) from September to November with a high risk of adverse health effects. Preliminary evidence indicates that in 3 lakes microcystins are accumulated in some aquatic organisms. Generally, a high risk level can be deduced from the data for the Mediterranean region.     

Towards Quantifying the Likelihood of Water Resource Impacts from Unconventional Gas Development

Gas production from unconventional reservoirs has led to widespread environmental concerns. Despite several excellent reviews of various potential impacts to water resources from unconventional gas production, no study has systematically and quantitatively assessed the potential for these impacts to occur. We use empirical evidence and numerical and analytical models to quantify the likelihood of surface water and groundwater contamination, and shallow aquifer depletion from unconventional gas developments. These likelihoods are not intended to be exact. They provide a starting point for comparing the probabilities of adverse impacts between types of water resources and pathways. This analysis provides much needed insight into what are “probable” rather than simply “possible” impacts. The results suggest that the most likely water resource impacts are surface water and groundwater contamination from spills at the well pad, which can be as high as 1 in 10 and 1 in 100 for each gas well, respectively. For wells that are hydraulically fractured, the likelihood of contamination due to inter-aquifer leakage is 1 in 10⁶ or lower (dependent on the separation distance between the production formation and the aquifer). For gas-bearing formations that were initially over-pressurized, the potential for contamination from inter-aquifer leakage after production ceases could be as high as 1 in 400 where the separation between gas formation and shallow aquifer is 500 m, but will be much lower for greater separation distances (more characteristic of shale gas).     

Discretizing the fracture-matrix interface to simulate solute transport

This article examines the required spatial discretization perpendicular to the fracture-matrix interface (FMI) for numerical simulation of solute transport in discretely fractured porous media. The discrete-fracture, finite-element model HydroGeoSphere ( Therrien et al. 2005 ) and a discrete-fracture implementation of MT3DMS ( Zheng 1990 ) were used to model solute transport in a single fracture, and the results were compared to the analytical solution of Tang et al. (1981) . To match analytical results on the relatively short timescales simulated in this study, very fine grid spacing perpendicular to the FMI of the scale of the fracture aperture is necessary if advection and/or dispersion in the fracture is high compared to diffusion in the matrix. The requirement of such extremely fine spatial discretization has not been previously reported in the literature. In cases of high matrix diffusion, matching the analytical results is achieved with larger grid spacing at the FMI. Cases where matrix diffusion is lower can employ a larger grid multiplier moving away from the FMI. The very fine spatial discretization identified in this study for cases of low matrix diffusion may limit the applicability of numerical discrete-fracture models in such cases.     

Thermobarometry of the Bleikvassli Zn-Pb-(Cu) deposit, Nordland, Norway

The Bleikvassli massive sulfide ore deposit is hosted by Proterozoic pelitic, quartzofeldspathic, and amphibolitic rocks of the Uppermost Allochthon of the Scandinavian Caledonides. Staurolite-garnet-biotite and kyanite-staurolite-biotite assemblages indicate that metamorphism reached the kyanite zone of the amphibolite facies. Geothermobarometry was conducted on rocks in and around the deposit using a variety of silicate and sulfide calibrations. Temperature determinations are most reliant on the garnet-biotite exchange reaction, with analyses obtained from 259 garnet rims and adjacent biotite. Results from nine calibrations of the garnet-biotite geothermometer are considered, but compositional limitations of many calibrations involving high Ca and Mn contents in garnet and Al^VI and Ti in biotite make many of the coexisting mineral pairs unsuitable. Average temperatures calculated from the two calibrations that most closely address the garnet-biotite compositions observed at Bleikvassli are 584 °C ± 49 °C and 570 °C ± 40 °C. The application of two calibrations of the garnet-staurolite geothermometer on a limited number of samples yields 581 °C ± 2 °C and 589 °C ± 12 °C, assuming a _H2O=0.84, based upon calculations of the modal proportions of gaseous species. Pressure determinations are less constrained. Phengite and plagioclase-biotite-garnet-muscovite geobarometers give average pressures of approximately 5.0 kbar and 8.5 ± 1.2 kbar, respectively. Pressures obtained from the sphalerite-hexagonal pyrrhotite-pyrite barometer average 7.7 ± 1.0 kbar. In consideration of these results, the peak metamorphic conditions at the Bleikvassli deposit are estimated to be 580 °C and 8 kbar. Received: 18 June 1997 / Accepted: 14 May 1998