Data-based forecasting of beach volumes on monthly to yearly timescales

Data-based methods for forecasting beach volumes are tested using ground-measured bathymetry from Duck, North Carolina, comprising 26 profiles, 20 year duration and one-month resolution. Derived beach volume time series show weak seasonal and strong event signals. The forecasting methods used are: Holt–Winters (standard and modified), three types of linear regression, and a default forecast in which the latest measurement persists unchanged into the future. Improved forecast accuracies are obtained by two modifications to Holt–Winters, involving an autocorrelation correction and long-term trend-damping, and by smoothing the fitting data using running medians or wavelet approximations. Beach volume forecasts are tested mainly at monthly intervals up to 12 months ahead, with further tests at up to 36 months ahead. Overall, modified Holt–Winters performs best and the default forecast second-best. With an added artificial seasonal signal, modified Holt–Winters outperforms the other methods more substantially.     

Latitudinal dependence of variations in stratospheric NO<Subscript>2</Subscript> content

Diurnal and annual variations in the NO₂ total content (TC), the effect of its decrease owing to the products of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, its variations during an 11-year cycle of solar activity, and its linear trends are analyzed on the basis of data obtained from the ground-based spectrometric measurements of the NO₂ TC in stratospheric vertical columns over the stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change. Latitudinal dependence of the indicated variations and trends is revealed. The annual estimates of the linear trends of the NO₂ TC are found to be mostly positive for the middle and low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere and negative for the middle and low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The maximum values of the positive and negative trends amount to ～10% per ten years. In the high and polar latitudes of both hemispheres, the annual trend estimates are statistically insignificant. Seasonal estimates of the trends may differ from their annual estimates. The trends and solar-activity effect in the NO₂ TC, which were estimated by using the two-dimensional model SOCRATES, as well as the analytical estimates of a zonal mean trend of the NO₂ TC, on the whole, significantly differ from the estimates obtained from the measurements.     

Physical mechanism of the westward drift of the frontal current rings in the ocean

The results of the numerical modeling of the Gulf Stream region based upon the σ-model of the Institute of Computational Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences are presented. The model reproduces the dynamics of the Gulf Stream meanders, the formation of warm and cold rings, and their further evolution. A simple physical mechanism leading to the westward drift of the rings of the main ocean mid-latitude frontal currents is considered. A simple theoretical model that makes it possible to estimate the westward ring drift is proposed. A comparison of the theory with the numerical results confirms the validity of the theoretical estimates and the physical adequacy of the model.     

On the reliability of millennial reconstructions of variations in surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere

The reliability of the recently published reconstructions of the surface air temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 yr is discussed. For this purpose, the power spectra of the two best known reconstructions (Mann et al.[10–12] and Moberg et al. [13]) are calculated and compared to the spectra of the 150-yr temperature series based on instrumental observations and simulated 1000-yr series. It is found that the Mann et al. reconstruction drastically underestimates low-frequency temperature variations, whereas the Moberg et al. reconstruction reproduces them much better, although with a certain underestimation rather than overestimation, as Mann et al. have recently argued.     

Some aspects in the development of dynamic meteorology in Russia in 2003–2006

A brief review of the studies performed by Russian scientists in dynamic meteorology in 2003–2006 is presented. This review is based on the material prepared by the Commission on Dynamic Meteorology of the National Geophysical Committee of the Russian Academy of Sciences and included in the general information report of the Section of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences at the 24th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics.     

Composition of ferromanganese nodules from Riga Bay (Baltic Sea)

An average sample of ferromanganese nodules from Riga Bay was investigated by analytical electron microscopy coupled with atomic absorption, neutron activation, and ICP-MS methods. It is established that the nodules consist of colloform and poorly crystallized Fe and Mn hydroxides with an admixture of dispersed inclusions of better crystallized particles allowing revealing their mineralogical nature by the microdiffraction method. The major mineral phases are ferroxigite and Fe-vernadite with subordinate magnetite, asbolane, and todorokite. The chemical composition of the nodules is dominated by iron followed by cobalt and lead, while nickel, molybdenum, and tungsten associate with the manganese phase. The concentration of several minor elements in the Riga Bay nodules is slightly lower as compared with their average values for the entire Baltic Sea; some elements such as silver, bismuth, cadmium, niobium, tin, and thallium were never analyzed before.     

North Brazil current: vertical structure

On the basis of the data ofin situ measurements of the velocities of currents and basic hydrophysical parameters (such as temperature and salinity) carried out during Cruise 41 of the R/VAkademik Vernadsky, we analyze the structure of the North Brazil Current near the continental slope and in the equatorial abyssal part of the ocean in winter, establish the regularities of changes in the current velocity with depth, and compare the structures of the North Brazil and Guiana Currents. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Co-management of Caribbean Community (CARICOM) fisheries

The countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) have a relatively poor record of fisheries management and the need to reform fisheries governance is urgent. There is now increasing interest in getting fishers and other stakeholders more involved in management through co-management and community-based management approaches. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potentials of co-management as an alternative fisheries management strategy for the countries in the CARICOM region. Co-management is found to have potential but there will need to be capacity-building and institutional strengthening of fisheries departments, fishers and NGOs to participate in co-management. Pilot projects should be initiated to gain practical experience in co-management.     

Evaluation of drift current parameters using an analytical model

The paper is concerned with the evaluation of the drift current parameters derived through the use of an analytical model. In this model, effective when stratification is stable and indifferent, the vertical turbulence coefficient profile is prescribed by the power function, and hydrodynamic quantities are prescribed using the external parameters of the problem (wind stress, the Coriolis parameter, and the dimensionless stratification parameter). Model data are compared with the observations of the upper mixed layer in the vicinity of the oceanic Station C, conducted during one year. It is shown that, under the spring-summer-time warming conditions, the model at issue is capable of adequately simulating the upper ocean layer dynamics. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.