Some Results on the Spatial Breakdown Point of Robust Point Estimates of the Variogram

The effect of outliers on estimates of the variogram depends on how they are distributed in space. The ‘spatial breakdown point’ is the largest proportion of observations which can be drawn from some arbitrary contaminating process without destroying a robust variogram estimator, when they are arranged in the most damaging spatial pattern. A numerical method is presented to find the spatial breakdown point for any sample array in two dimensions or more. It is shown by means of some examples that such a numerical approach is needed to determine the spatial breakdown point for two or more dimensions, even on a regular square sample grid, since previous conjectures about the spatial breakdown point in two dimensions do not hold. The ‘average spatial breakdown point’ has been used as a basis for practical guidelines on the intensity of contaminating processes that can be tolerated by robust variogram estimators. It is the largest proportion of contaminating observations in a data set such that the breakdown point of the variance estimator used to obtain point estimates of the variogram is not exceeded by the expected proportion of contaminated pairs of observations over any lag. In this paper the behaviour of the average spatial breakdown point is investigated for cases where the contaminating process is spatially dependent. It is shown that in two dimensions the average spatial breakdown point is 0.25. Finally, the ‘empirical spatial breakdown point’, a tool for the exploratory analysis of spatial data thought to contain outliers, is introduced and demonstrated using data on metal content in the soils of Sheffield, England. The empirical spatial breakdown point of a particular data set can be used to indicate whether the distribution of possible contaminants is likely to undermine a robust variogram estimator.     

Stability Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Differential Frost Heave

Differential frost heave is often implicated in the formation of patterned ground in regions subject to recurrent freezing and thawing. A linear stability analysis (LSA) indicates that a continuum model of frost heave is linearly unstable under typical natural freezing conditions of silty-clay soils. A two-dimensional non-linear numerical analysis corroborates the frozen time LSA results, and also indicates the importance of non-linear and time-dependent terms that ultimately lead to a preferred mode, which the LSA fails to predict. Instability of the one-dimensional solution occurs at shallow freezing depths and near-zero surface loads when positive perturbations in the ice content at the freezing front lead to a concomitant increase in thermomolecular pressure and upward ice velocity. Differential frost heave can then occur because of the increased heat flux from the perturbed surfaces. A three-dimensional model using random initial surface perturbations indicates that regular surface patterns will evolve with a length scale in the order of 2–4 meters, which corresponds quite closely with naturally-occurring non-sorted patterned ground.     

Inversely-Mapped Analytical Solutions for Flow Patterns around and within Inclined Elliptic Inclusions in Fluid-Saturated Rocks

In this paper, an inverse mapping is used to transform the previously-derived analytical solutions from a local elliptical coordinate system into a conventional Cartesian coordinate system. This enables a complete set of exact analytical solutions to be derived rigorously for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function, and excess pore-fluid pressure around and within buried inclined elliptic inclusions in pore-fluid-saturated porous rocks. To maximize the application range of the derived analytical solutions, the focal distance of an ellipse is used to represent the size of the ellipse, while the length ratio of the long axis to the short one is used to represent the geometrical shape of the ellipse. Since the present analytical solutions are expressed in a conventional Cartesian coordinate system, it is convenient to investigate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pressure around and within many different families of buried inclined elliptic inclusions. The major advantage in using the present analytical solution is that they can be conveniently computed in a global Cartesian coordinate system, which is widely used in many scientific and engineering computations. As an application example, the present analytical solutions have been used to investigate how the dip angle of an inclined elliptic inclusion affects the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pore-fluid pressure when the permeability ratio of the elliptic inclusion is of finite but nonzero values.     

Long-term seismic noise investigations on Shikotan Island: First results

In 2003–2004, long-term seismic noise observations were launched on Shikotan Island (Lesser Kuril Range) based on the “Shikotan” dormant regional seismic station. The geological and geophysical data on the registration area are reported. Information about the equipment and its technical specifications is given. The precursors to the strongest local earthquakesthat occurred in the Shikotan Island region in January 2005–March 2007 are identified.     

A geophysical study of the granites and the sedimentary basins of the Xanthi area (N. Greece)

Intrusive features of varying size can be interpreted from the aeromagnetic map of the Xanthi area in N. Greece.The Xanthi pluton, which outcrops north of the city of Xanthi, seems to have the shape of a truncated pyramid. This feature has relatively large areal extent and reaches an approximate depth of 7 km. Another, relatively large magnetic body is buried under the sediments at the estuary of the Nestos River.3-D models of several smaller intrusions were constructed and the produced effect was compared to the observed. Some of these intrusions seem to be detached branches of the large Xanthi pluton.The basement in the outer part of the basin of the Nestos River seems to be buried at about 4 km depth. This figure is obtained by the Multiple Source Werner Deconvolution estimates and it is in agreement with the results of former geophysical studies and deep industrial boreholes.A 3-D model of the Xanthi-Komotini basin suggests that this basin is about 0.4 km deep at its southern part. The depth at its northern boundary is about 1.8 km while the boundary itself is formed by the large Kavala-Xanthi-Komotini fault.The Tertiary basin of the Nestos River and the observed magmatism are consistent with the idea of an older extensional tectonic regime in the area.     

Testing for quantized redshifts. I. The project

A project intended to examine the long-standing claims that extragalactic redshifts are periodic or quantized was initiated some years ago at the Royal Observatory, Edinburgh. The approach taken is outlined, and the main conclusions to date are summarized. The existence of a galactocentric redshift quantization is confirmed at a high confidence level.     

On the magnetism of stars and planets

A self-consistent statistical approach to the problem of planetary and stellar magnetism is suggested. The mechanism of magnetic field generation in the astronomical objects, where the existence of fields is associated with the axial rotation of objects, is discussed. In the general case the light pressure, the centrifugal, gravitational and other forces produce partial -separation of the charges. As a result of the system rotation, the magnetic fields of the currents of these charges are not compensated. The influence of various factors on the magnetic field of some object is analysed.     

Overbreak and underbreak in underground openings Part 2: causes and implications

Summary The newly developed light sectioning method has been used to investigate some of the causes and costs of overbreak and underbreak. Investigations at the Aquamilpa Hydroelectric Project in Mexico have shown decreased overbreak and increased underbreak as a result of increased rock quality and decreased explosive energy. A new measure of explosive energy, the perimeter powder factor (PPF), has been defined and shown to be useful in the context of tunnel-wall rock damage. Tentative results indicate that explosive energy (PPF) may be a more important factor in producing underbreak, whereas rock quality may be a greater factor in producing overbreak. A site-specific equation is given for predicting overbreak or underbreak as a function of rock quality and explosive energy, with an evaluation of the cost of underbreak and overbreak.