Chemical composition,volatile components,and trace elements in melts of the Karymskii volcanic center,Kamchatka, and Golovnina volcano,Kunashir Island: Evidence from inclusions in minerals

Melt inclusions were examined in phenocrysts in basalt, andesite, dacite, and rhyodacite from the Karymskii volcanic center in Kamchatka and dacite form Golovnina volcano in Kunashir Island, Kuriles. The inclusions were examined by homogenization and by analyzing glasses in more than 80 inclusions on an electron microscope and ion microprobe. The SiO₂ concentrations in the melt inclusions in plagioclase phenocrysts from basalts from the Karymskii volcanic center vary from 47.4 to 57.1 wt %, these values for inclusions in plagioclase phenocrysts from andesites are 55.7–67.1 wt %, in plagioclase phenocrysts from the dacites and rhyodacites are 65.9–73.1 wt %, and those in quartz in the rhyodacites are 72.2–75.7 wt %. The SiO₂ concentrations in melt inclusions in quartz from dacites from Golovnina volcano range from 70.2 to 77.0 wt %. The basaltic melts are characterized by usual concentrations of major components (wt %): TiO₂ = 0.7–1.3, FeO = 6.8–11.4, MgO = 2.3–6.1, CaO = 6.7–10.8, and K₂O = 0.4–1.7; but these rocks are notably enriched in Na₂O (2.9–7.4 wt % at an average of 5.1 wt %, with the highest Na₂O concentration detected in the most basic melts: SiO₂ = 47.4–52.0 wt %. The concentrations of volatiles in the basic melts are 1.6 wt % for H₂O, 0.14 wt % for S, 0.09 wt % for Cl, and 50 ppm for F. The andesite melts are characterized by high concentrations (wt %) of FeO (6.5 on average), CaO (5.2), and Cl (0.26) at usual concentrations of Na₂O (4.5), K₂O (2.1), and S (0.07). High water concentrations were determined in the dacite and rhyodacite melts: from 0.9 to 7.3 wt % (average of 15 analyses equals 4.5 wt %). The Cl concentration in these melts is 0.15 wt %, and those of F and S are 0.06 and 0.01 wt %, respectively. Melt inclusions in quartz from the dacites of Golovnina volcano are also rich in water: they contain from 5.0 to 6.7 wt % (average 5.6 wt %). The comparison of melt compositions from the Karymskii volcanic center and previously studied melts from Bezymyannyi and Shiveluch volcanoes revealed their significant differences. The former are more basic, are enriched in Ti, Fe, Mg, Ca, Na, and P but significantly depleted in K. The melts of the Karymskii volcanic center are most probably less differentiated than the melts of Bezymyannyi and Shiveluch volcanoes. The concentrations of water and 20 trace elements were measured in the glasses of 22 melt inclusions in plagioclase and quartz from our samples. Unusually high values were obtained for Li concentrations (along with high Na concentrations) in the basaltic melts from the Karymskii volcanic center: from 118 to 1750 ppm, whereas the dacite and rhyolite melts contain 25 ppm Li on average. The rhyolite melts of Golovnina volcano are much poorer in Li: 1.4 ppm on average. The melts of the Karymskii volcanic center are characterized by relative minima at Nb and Ti and maxima at B and K, as is typical of arc magmas.     

An Attempt to Predict the Failure Time of Abandoned Mine Pillars

Summary  Left in place pillars of abandoned mines are subject to weathering (e.g action of water, bacteria) that degrades their mechanical strength and eventually leads to collapse. A simple weathering model is proposed, that is governed by two parameters: the rate of progression of weathered front and the rate of degradation of the compressive strength with time. Both plane strain and axisymmetric analyses are performed and closed form solutions of the variation with time of the bearing capacity of the pillar are given. Experimental data of the tests conducted on gypsum and anhydrite specimens attacked by water are presented. It is shown that in order to fit the experimental data a third parameter must be introduced. New closed form solutions are given and the data are used for estimating the time to failure of abandoned gypsum mines in Northern Italy. Authors’ address: Dr. Riccardo Castellanza, Research Assistant, Department of Structural Engineering, Milan University of Technology (Politecnico), Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan, Italy     

Paleogeographic regionalization of Triassic seas based on conodontophorids

Geographic differentiation of conodontophorids between northern and southern latitudes commenced in the Triassic since the early Induan. Cosmopolitan long-lived genera of predominantly smooth morphotypes without sculpturing were characteristic of high-latitude basins of the Panboreal Superrealm. Since the early Olenekian until the Carnian inclusive, this superrealm consisted of the Siberian Realm that extended over Northeast Asia and the Canada-Svalbard Realm that included the Svalbard Archipelago and northern regions of Canada. Throughout the Triassic period, conodontophorids characteristic of the Tethys-Panthalassa Superrealm spanning the Tethys and low-latitude zones of the Pacific were highly endemic, very diverse in taxonomic aspect, having well-developed sculpturing and tempos of morphological transformations. Distinctions between the Early-Middle Triassic conodontophorids from northern and southern zones were not as great as afterward, and their impoverished assemblages from southern Tethyan basins were close in some respects to the Boreal ones. Their habitat basins of that time can be grouped into the Mediterranean-Pacific and India-Pakistan realms. Hence, the extent of geographic differentiation of conodontophorids was not constant and gradually grew, as their taxonomic diversity was reducing in northern basins but relatively increasing in southern ones. The Panboreal e Tethys-Panthalassa superrealms of conodontophorids, which are most clearly recognizable, are close to first-rank paleobiochores (superrealms) established earlier for ammonoids and bivalve mollusks. Main factor that controlled geographic differentiation of Triassic conodontophorids was climatic zoning. Initially lower diversity of southern Tethyan assemblages points probably to relatively cooler water regime in the peri-Gondwanan part of the Tethys. The established patterns in geographic distribution of conodontophorids characterize most likely the real trend of their differentiation and evolution, i.e., the distribution area contraction prior to complete extinction at the end of the Triassic     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.     

Modeling households’ decisions on reconstruction of houses damaged by earthquakes––Japanese case study

In this study, households’ decisions on reconstruction of damaged houses were modeled, using questionnaire data in Japan. Characteristics of households’ decisions were investigated using parameter estimation results. The effects of subsidizing policy were evaluated as follows. First, subsidy for rebuilding may be effective for the households whose houses were heavily damaged. Second, there is a possibility that subsidy accelerated rebuilding of houses by the households having children. Third, subsidy for rebuilding may not be effective for elderly people’s households and households in depopulated areas.     

Flood hazard delineation combining geomorphological and hydrological methods: an example in the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km² of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph) in the Sarria River basin (155 km², NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling (one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km² urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both methods. Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology.