TRACKING THE BABY BOOM,THE BABY BUST,AND THE ECHO GENERATIONS: HOW AGE COMPOSITION REGULATES US MIGRATION*

US regional and state migration data from the 1940s–80s, when members of the baby boom generation aged into their years of peak labor force mobility, suggest ways in which changing age composition regulates geographical mobility and interregional migration. Labor supply pressure plays a key role in the dynamics of the national migration system. A “delayed mobility” effect in the 1980s similar to the delayed fertility of the baby boom cohorts appears to be a result of the depressed rates of mobility experienced by members of this generation when they flooded regional labor markets with record numbers of entrants in the 1970s. Recent temporal shifts in age-specific volumes of interregional migration help predict the future pace of migration based upon the projected age distribution of the nation.     

Saturation of groundwaters with respect to minerals of the host rocks

Calculations of the saturation of groundwaters with respect to minerals of the rocks hosting these waters indicate that most of the analyzed groundwaters were saturates with respect to calcite, dolomite, and quartz. Brines of chloride-calcic composition were determined to be saturated with respect to calcite, whereas brines of chloride-sodic composition are saturated with respect to dolomite and quartz. The solution was simultaneously saturated with respect to six minerals for the association ankerite-calcite-dolomite-pyrite-quartz-strontianite. An increase in the number of minerals with respect to which solution is saturated is correlated with an increase in the diversity of types of groundwaters and an increase in the runoff rate. The paper proposes possible avenues for searches for relations between hydrogeological and geochemical parameters that make it possible to adapt the thermodynamic models to real geological-hydrogeological conditions. The research was centered on the testing of groundwaters for their saturation with respect to minerals of the rocks hosting these waters. This parameter plays a significant part in forming the geochemical type of natural waters because it reflects the crystallization of a mineral from a solution and, consequently, the removal of an element from the aqueous solution.     

Artificial light at night: implications for early life stages development in four temperate freshwater fish species

Flora and fauna have both evolved under a natural cycle of light and dark. But especially in urban areas, the night is now increasingly disturbed by artificial light. Many traits and behaviours in fish are triggered by a circadian clock, for example hatching and swim bladder inflation, which predominantly take place at dusk or night. As lighting becomes brighter and extends farther into rural areas, the distinction between day and night becomes increasingly blurred. Therefore, the loss of diurnal trigger by artificial light at night was hypothesized having deleterious effects on these traits and impact fish reproduction. To assess these effects, eggs of four native freshwater fishes, Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis, roach Rutilus rutilus, bleak Alburnus alburnus and chub Leuciscus cephalus, were incubated under two different light conditions: a photoperiod of 14 h light:10 h darkness (LD) and continuous illumination (LL). The time to hatch and swim bladder inflation was recorded. The species showed inconsistent reactions to the light treatments. In roach and bleak, the time to 50% hatch was longer in LL, whereas continuous lighting had an accelerating effect in chub. Incubation in LL elongated the hatching period in perch and roach and, in perch, the onset of darkness seemed to trigger hatching. The swim bladder inflation was significantly promoted by continuous light in chub and bleak but was not affected in roach. In conclusion, nocturnal artificial illumination could have an effect on hatching and initial swim bladder filling by masking the day–night-change and thereby diminish the trigger effect. However, the reactions were species specific and the increase in variation indicated a lack of diurnal triggering, whilst a general deleterious effect of artificial light at night has not been identified on early life stages.     

Measurements of radio noise at 0.700 mc and 2.200 mc from a high-altitude rocket probe

Radio noise observations at frequencies of 0·700 Mc and 2·200 Mc were made at altitudes between 3000 and 11,000 km from a Blue Scout Jr. high-altitude rocket probe on 30 July 1963. A steady background flux of (7·5₋₃⁺⁶) × 10⁻¹⁹ W m⁻²)(c/s)⁻¹ at 0·700 Mc and (1·8^+1.0_−0.5 × 10⁻¹⁹ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ at 2·200 Mc was observed. Assuming a galactic origin of the observed fluxes at both frequencies, the averaged sky brightnesses are b(0·700 Mc) = (6₋₃⁺⁵) × 10⁻²⁰ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ sr⁻¹b(2·200 Mc) = (1.4^+1.0_−0.5 × 10⁻²⁰ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ sr⁻¹ The observed brightness at 2·200 Mc is in reasonable agreement with the results of other observers. The apparent brightness at 0·700 Mc is, however, greater than was expected from previous observations. An alternative source of the 0·700 Mc flux in the terrestrial exosphere, as well as characteristics of several noise bursts observed during the flight, is briefly discussed.     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.