GEOGRAPHIC FORECASTING AND MAPPING

The author outlines general principles and methods of predictive or forecast mapping in the USSR, more specifically the use of maps in support of geographic forecasting, i.e., prediction of relationships involved in matter, energy, and other flows of ecosystem components. Maps are employed in all stages of geographic forecasting, particularly to identify spatial patterns which can be extrapolated in space or time and used to predict distributions that are difficult or impossible to determine directly, as well as to graphically portray these expected distributions. A scheme for classifying forecast maps in terms of their orientation in time and space is presented. Translated from: Prognoznoye blogeograficheskoye kartografirovaniye: regional'nyy aspekt, Moscow: Nauka, 1985, pp. 6-24.     

TEXTURE OF FOREST COMMUNITIES ON AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS

The authors discuss a method by which the image characteristics of forest vegetation can be used to determine various valuational characteristics of forest stands through the combination of air photo interpretation and ground surveys at selected training sites. Construction of curves showing changes in image texture and tone occurring at different stages in the growth cycle of a pine forest community are used to estimate the age of a forest stand, and through known relationships between age and other stand characteristics incorporated into yield tables, to approximate such valuational characteristics as mean diameter, mean height, and stand volume. Translated from: Distantsionnyye issledovaniya rel'yefa Sibiri, A. L. Yanshin and V. N. Sharanov, eds. Novosibirsk, Nauka, 1985, pp. 73-78.     

EXPERIENCE IN COMPILING LARGE-SCALE MAPS OF EROSION-PRONE AREAS

Specific criteria used in the compilation of large-scale maps of erosion-prone areas are defined and evaluated for tracts of land representing a number of different agricultural cover types. Formulas are derived which facilitate the mapping of such areas based on such readily observable morphometric characteristics as slope length and steepness. Translated by Edward Torrey, Alexandria, VA 22308 from: Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, geografiya, 1988, No. 5, pp. 25-31.     

THE PRESENT STATE OF ECOSYSTEMS IN MONGOLIA: PRINCIPLES OF EVALUATION AND MAPPING

This paper explores how such characteristics as the polarization of reflected radiation, the angular characteristics of its reflectance, and its thermal properties can be used to supplement conventional remote sensing studies of the condition of the vegetation cover. One possible application is clarified by means of an experiment testing the relationship between the degree of polarization of radiation reflected from cultivated cotton fields and the condition of the crop in those fields. Empirical data demonstrate that changes in the geometric structure of (and reflectance from) fields occurs when cultivated plants are subjected to stress (disease or moisture deprivation). Translated by Edward Torrey, Alexandria, VA 22308 from: L. N. Vasil'yev, ed., Kosmicheskiye metody izucheniya biosfery [Remote Sensing Methods in the Study of the Biosphere]. Moscow: Nauka, 1990, pp. 77–82.     

A global inventory of coral reef stressors based on satellite observed nighttime lights

In this article, we present a satellite-based approach to gather information about the threat to coral reefs worldwide. Three chosen reef stressors – development, gas flaring and heavily lit fishing boat activity – are analysed using nighttime lights data derived from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) produced at the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, National Geophysical Data Center (NOAA/NGDC). Nighttime lights represent a direct threat to coral reef ecosystems and are an excellent proxy measure for associated human-caused stressors. A lights proximity index (LPI) is calculated, measuring the distance of coral reef sites to each of the stressors and incorporating the stressor's intensity. Colourized maps visualize the results on a global scale. Area rankings clarify the effects of artificial night lighting on coral reefs on a regional scale. The results should be very useful for reef managers and for state administrations to implement coral reef conservation projects and for the scientific world to conduct further research.     

Evaluation of the spatial changes in seagrass cover in the lagoons of Lakshadweep islands,India, using IRS LISS III satellite images

A study was conducted in Lakshadweep islands to determine the feasibility of using Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellites for detecting changes in the seagrass from other coastal features. IRS ID and IRS P6 LISS III having spatial resolution of 23.5 m with lower cost compared to all other contemporary satellites with the same spatial resolution have not been widely used for monitoring the changes in seagrass cover. In this context, the present study attempted to explore the effectiveness of LISS III data for mapping seagrasses and to inform the international community about the usefulness of these low-cost imageries for coastal resource monitoring. Supervised classification and change detection studies found a significant decrease in seagrass cover of 73.03 ha in the Lakshadweep group of islands. An overall accuracy of 67.5% was obtained for the change maps, and seagrass cover and its changes vary at different islands.     

Predicting agricultural drought in eastern Rajasthan of India using NDVI and standardized precipitation index

In the present study, prediction of agricultural drought has been addressed through prediction of agricultural yield using a model based on NDVI-SPI. It has been observed that the meteorological drought index SPI with different timescale is correlated with NDVI at different lag. Also NDVI of current fortnight is correlated with NDVI of previous lags. Based on the correlation coefficients, the Multiple Regression Model was developed to predict NDVI. The NDVI of current fortnight was found highly correlated with SPI of previous fortnight in semi-arid and transitional zones. The correlation between NDVI and crop yield was observed highest in first fortnight of August. The RMSE of predicted yield in drought year was found to be about 17.07 kg/ha which was about 6.02 per cent of average yield. In normal year, it was 24 kg/Ha denoting about 2.1 per cent of average yield.     

Simulating Spatial Dynamics and Processes in a Retail Gasoline Market: An Agent‐Based Modeling Approach

Simulating the dynamics and processes within a spatially influenced retail market, such as the retail gasoline market, is a highly challenging research area. Current approaches are limited through their inability to model the impact of supplier or consumer behavior over both time and space. Agent‐based models (ABMs) provide an alternative approach that overcomes these problems. We demonstrate how knowledge of retail pricing is extended by using a ‘hybrid’ model approach: an agent model for retailers and a spatial interaction model for consumers. This allows the issue of spatial competition between individual retailers to be examined in a way only accessible to agent‐based models, allowing each model retailer autonomous control over optimizing their price. The hybrid model is shown to be successful at recreating spatial pricing dynamics at a national scale, simulating the effects of a rise in crude oil prices as well as accurately predicting which retailers were most susceptible to closure over a 10‐year period.     

Multi‐Season Atmospheric Normalization of NOAA AVHRR Derived NDVI for Crop Yield Modeling

Abstract

A methodology has been developed to normalize the multi‐temporal NDVIs derived from NOAA AVHRR data for the atmospheric effects to the least affected NDVI for development of spectral and spectrometeorological (or spectromet, for short) crop yield models. This is found to reduce the noise in NDVI due to varying atmospheric conditions from season to season and improve the predictability of statistical multiple linear regression yield models. The spectromet yield models for mustard crop in the nine districts of Rajasthan state haven been developed based on normalized NDVIs and have been validated by comparing the predicted yields with the estimated from crop cutting experiments by the state Development of Agriculture.