Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in North Africa

North Africa is one of the most earthquake-prone areas of the Mediterranean. Many devastating earthquakes, some of them tsunami-triggering, inflicted heavy loss of life and considerable economic damage to the region. In order to mitigate the destructive impact of the earthquakes, the regional seismic hazard in North Africa is assessed using the neo-deterministic, multi-scenario methodology (NDSHA) based on the computation of synthetic seismograms, using the modal summation technique, at a regular grid of 0.2?×?0.2°. This is the first study aimed at producing NDSHA maps of North Africa including five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. The key input data for the NDSHA algorithm are earthquake sources, seismotectonic zonation, and structural models. In the preparation of the input data, it has been really important to go beyond the national borders and to adopt a coherent strategy all over the area. Thanks to the collaborative efforts of the teams involved, it has been possible to properly merge the earthquake catalogues available for each country to define with homogeneous criteria the seismogenic zones, the characteristic focal mechanism associated with each of them, and the structural models used to model wave propagation from the sources to the sites. As a result, reliable seismic hazard maps are produced in terms of maximum displacement (D _max), maximum velocity (V _max), and design ground acceleration.     

The impact of health financing and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission on health outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa: A cross-country analysis

The current paper examines the relationship between health financing (public and out-of-pocket health financing), CO₂ emission and health outcomes in 35 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period of 1995–2012. The panel unit root and cointegration tests are conducted as pre-tests, followed by the estimation of the parameters using the FM-OLS and DOLS techniques. The findings of the study show the importance of public health financing as one of the major factors that lead to better health outcomes, whereas the out-of-pocket expenditure is found to be harmful to population health since it leads to increase under-5 mortality rate. Although the results show a negative relationship between CO₂ and health outcomes, still these results remain inclusive. In addition, the findings reveal the importance of socioeconomic factors such as income and education as key determinants of health outcomes.     

Building frequency fluctuations from continuous monitoring of ambient vibrations and their relationship to temperature variations

Building frequencies (fundamental and higher modes) are a critical parameter especially in the field of structural health monitoring mainly based on the stability of the structural dynamic parameters of individual building (frequencies, damping and modes shape). One of the most used methods to find out these parameters is based on the use on ambient vibration analysis. In this work, we study the fluctuations over a month period of the fundamental frequencies (transverse and longitudinal) of a 3.5-story RC-building made of 2 identical units connected by a structural joint. Time independent building frequencies is a strong assumption; as illustrated by our experiment showing that over an observation period of a month, building frequencies fluctuate of about 3.5 %. A clear correlation is found between the building frequency fluctuations and temperature variations, with a phase-shift interpreted as the characteristic time of heat diffusion within the walls. This allows: (1) determining the thermal diffusivity of the structure, (2) inferring its relative stiffness variations, and (3) showing that its Young modulus varies linearly with temperature.     

The Djidjelli (Algeria) earthquakes of 21 and 22 August 1856 (I<Subscript>0</Subscript> VIII,IX) and related tsunami effects Revisited

New historical data from primary sources, allow us to revisit the Djidjelli earthquakes of 21 and 22 August 1856 (I₀ VIII, IX respectively). These two large seismic events are among the most significant events that have affected the North African coast. They have caused extensive damage and generated a tsunami that propagated at several harbours of the western Mediterranean Sea. The effects of each earthquake are analysed from all documentary source materials, emphasising the confrontation of observations and data for an accurate reconstruction of the macroseismic field of both events. The method used provides a more precise way to determine the characteristics of the Djidjelli earthquakes.     

Seismic design factors for RC special moment resisting frames in Dubai, UAE

This study investigates the seismic design factors for three reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings with 4, 16 and 32-stories in Dubai, UAE utilizing nonlinear analysis. The buildings are designed according to the response spectrum procedure defined in the 2009 International Building Code (IBC’09). Two ensembles of ground motion records with 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (10/50 and 2/50, respectively) are used. The nonlinear dynamic responses to the earthquake records are computed using IDARC-2D. Key seismic design parameters are evaluated; namely, response modification factor (R), deflection amplification factor (Cd), system overstrength factor (Ωo), and response modification factor for ductility (Rd) in addition to inelastic interstory drift. The evaluated seismic design factors are found to significantly depend on the considered ground motion (10/50 versus 2/50). Consequently, resolution to the controversy of Dubai seismicity is urged. The seismic design factors for the 2/50 records show an increase over their counterparts for the 10/50 records in the range of 200%-400%, except for the Ωo factor, which shows a mere 30% increase. Based on the observed trends, period-dependent R and Cd factors are recommended if consistent collapse probability (or collapse prevention performance) in moment frames with varying heights is to be expected.     

G23FM: a tool for meshing complex geological media

We present G23FM, a mesh generation tool for discretizing two- and three-dimensional complex fractured geological media. G23FM includes different techniques to generate finite element grids that maintain the geometric integrity of input surfaces, and geologic data and produce optimal triangular/tetrahedral grids for flow and transport simulations. G23FM generates grid for two-dimensional cross-sections, represents faults and fractures, for three-dimensional fractured media, and has the capability of including finer grids. Different examples are presented to illustrate some of the main features of G23FM.     

Laboratory Investigation into the Effects of Silty Fines on Liquefaction Susceptibility of Chlef (Algeria) Sandy Soils

In a number of recent case studies, the liquefaction of silty sands has been reported. To investigate the undrained shear and deformation behaviour of Chlef sand–silt mixtures, a series of monotonic and stress-controlled cyclic triaxial tests were conducted on sand encountered at the site. The aim of this laboratory investigation is to study the influence of silt contents, expressed by means of the equivalent void ratio on undrained residual shear strength of loose, medium dense and dense sand–silt mixtures under monotonic loading and liquefaction potential under cyclic loading. After an earthquake event, the prediction of the post-liquefaction strength is becoming a challenging task in order to ensure the stability of different types of earth structures. Thus, the choice of the appropriate undrained residual shear strength of silty sandy soils that are prone to liquefaction to be used in engineering practice design should be established. To achieve this, a series of undrained triaxial tests were conducted on reconstituted saturated silty sand samples with different fines contents ranging from 0 to 40 %. In all tests, the confining pressure was held constant at 100 kPa. From the experimental results obtained, it is clear that the global void ratio cannot be used as a state parameter and may not characterize the actual behaviour of the soil as well. The equivalent void ratio expressing the fine particles participation in soil strength is then introduced. A linear relationship between the undrained shear residual shear strength and the equivalent void ratio has been obtained for the studied range of the fines contents. Cyclic test results confirm that the increase in the equivalent void ratio and the fines content accelerates the liquefaction phenomenon for the studied stress ratio and the liquefaction resistance decreases with the increase in either the equivalent void ratio or the loading amplitude level. These cyclic tests results confirm the obtained monotonic tests results.     

InSAR analysis of a blind thrust rupture and related active folding: the 1999 Ain Temouchent earthquake (M w 5.7, Algeria) case study

We study the surface deformation associated with the 22 December 1999 earthquake, a moderate sized but damaging event at Ain Temouchent (northwestern Algeria) using Interferometric Satellite Aperture Radar images (InSAR). The mainshock focal mechanism solution indicates reverse faulting with a NE–SW trending rupture comparable to other major seismic events of this section of the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary. Previously, the earthquake fault parameters were, however, poorly known because no aftershocks were precisely determined and no coseismic surface ruptures were observed in the field. Using a pair of ERS data with small baseline and short temporal separation in the ascending orbit we obtained an interferogram that shows the coseismic surface displacement field despite poor coherence. The interferogram measures four fringes and displays an ellipse-shaped lobe with ∼11 cm peak line-of-sight displacement. The elastic modeling using a boundary element method (Poly3Dinv) indicate coseismic slip reaching up to 1 m at 5 km depth on the N 57° E trending, dipping 32° NW Tafna thrust fault. The geodetic estimate of seismic moment is 4.7 × 10¹⁷ N m. (Mw 5.7) in is good agreement with seismological results. The elliptical shape of the surface displacement field coincides with the NE–SW trending Berdani fault-related fold. The consistency between the geological observations and InSAR solution shed light on the precise earthquake location and related Tafna fault parameters.     

A major seismogenic fault in a 'silent area': the Castrovillari fault (southern Apennines, Italy)

Large historical earthquakes in Italy define a prominent gap in the Pollino region of the southern Apennines. Geomorphic and palaeoseismological investigations in this region show that the Castrovillari fault (CF) is a major seismogenic source that could potentially fill the southern part of this gap. The surface expression of the CF is a complex, 10–13 km long set of prominent scarps. Trenches across one scarp indicate that at least four surface-faulting earthquakes have occurred along the CF since Late Pleistocene time, each producing at least 1 m of vertical displacement. The length of the fault and the slip per event suggest M =6.5-7.0 for the palaeoearthquakes. Preliminary radiocarbon dating coupled with historical considerations imply that the most recent of these earthquakes occurred between 380 BC and 1200 AD, and probably soon after 760 AD; no evidence for this event has been found in the historical record. We estimate a minimum recurrence interval of 1170 years and a vertical slip rate of 0.2-0.5 mm yr^-1 for the CF, which indicates that the seismic behaviour of this fault is comparable to other major seismogenic faults of the central-southern Apennines. The lack of mention or the mislocation of the most recent event in the historical seismic memory of the Pollino region clearly shows that even in Italy, which has one of the longest historical records of seismicity, a seismic hazard assessment based solely on the historical record may not be completely reliable, and shows that geological investigations are critical for filling possible information gaps.